Today's Map: Iowa Moves From "Safe" to "Leaning Democrat"
Posted Sep 20, 2008 at 10:05 AM by Maurice Berger
The two most recent polls issued in Iowa could not be more divergent. Survey USA (one of the more accurate polls during the primaries) gives Obama a whopping 11% lead (54% to 43%). Big10Battleground, a public opinion survey of Midwest voters, reports that the race is tied at 45%. A few more polls may clarify this situation. Statistical glitches or divergent polling models could be to blame. Survey USA shows the race tied among men, for example, numbers that would make Iowa an outlier, since most states report a gender gap (though one smaller than 2004) in which men favor the Republican, women the Democrat. Yet, there is reason to believe that the Democrat may be doing well in Iowa. During the primary and caucus season, Obama spent an inordinate amount of time and money in the state, building a solid organization, good will, and introducing himself to voters. He won the state's caucus by an impressive margin in a hotly contested and highly competitive race. By contrast, McCain lost this first-in-the-nation barometer of party preferences. Until further polling clarifies the situation, PollTrack moves Iowa on Today's Map from "Safe Democrat" to "Leaning Democrat."
