VA Governor 2009: Democratic Creigh Deeds In Serious Trouble
Posted Sep 14, 2009 at 9:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
With PollTrack's aggregate numbers in Virginia's upcoming gubernatorial race indicating a substantial Republican advantage--Bob McDonnell now leads Democratic Creigh Deeds, 51.3% to 42%--the Democrats path has grown narrower. With six week to go, the GOP candidate is now well over the KEY 50%, with an aggregate lead of +9.3%. Not an insurmountable lead, but daunting nevertheless.
An individual poll from one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2008 Election Cycle--SurveyUSA--suggests an even more dire situation for Deeds and for Democrats in general in the state: "In statewide elections in Virginia today, two months until votes are counted, Republicans sweep, taking the statehouse away from the Democrats and holding the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General offices . . . For Governor, McDonnell appears undamaged and today defeats Deeds. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released five weeks ago, the race has tightened slightly, not dramatically. There is movement to Deeds in the Washington DC suburbs, where a 15-point McDonnell lead has evaporated, but there is no GOP erosion in the rest of the state. There is softening in McDonnell's support among voters age 50+, but that is offset by gains for McDonnell among voters age 35 to 49. Of those who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and who are judged by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in November 2009, 13% cross-over for McDonnell, twice the number of McCain voters who cross-over for Deeds." McDonnell holds a +12% lead in the survey.
