NJ Governor 2009: Can Democrat Corzine Win?
Posted Oct 05, 2009 at 10:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
Is Democrat Jon Corzine really closing the gap in his upcoming gubernatorial race in New Jersey against GOP challenger Chris Christie? Can he actually come out ahead on Election Day. The answer, PollTrack believes, is possibly, but that thus far Corzine remains stuck in the same position he's been in since the start of his campaign in January 2009 on: at or below the 40% mark, with little or no movement upward. Even with the recent narrowing of the gap recorded in some surveys, it been a slight decline in Christie's support and not a significant uptick in support for Corzine that accounts for most of the decrease between the two candidates.
In a telling analysis of the race, veteran political analyst Stuart Rothenberg observes of the recent narrowing of the polls: "Corzine's chances of winning re-election now are no better than they were a month ago. The governor continues to be stuck between 38 percent and 42 percent in the ballot test, where he has been for many months, and the fundamentals of the race continue to favor the Republican challenger. Corzine was at 39 percent among likely voters in the newest Quinnipiac survey, not much different from his 37 percent showing at the end of August, his 40 percent showing in early August or his 38 percent showing in mid-July. The most recent Quinnipiac poll showed Christie leading Corzine by 4 points because the Republican's vote has slipped from 46 percent or 47 percent in other Quinnipiac surveys to 43 percent. In turn, Independent candidate Chris Daggett's number in the ballot test has risen to 12 percent in the most recent Quinnipiac poll, up from the 7 percent to 9 percent he had been drawing in other recent Quinnipiac surveys. There is no statistically significant movement from late August to late September among likely independent voters."
PollTrack will continue to cover the race very closely in the coming weeks, in our countdown to Election 2009.
