Gay Marriage Ban in 2009 Maine Vote: Nate Silver Examines The Odds?
Posted Oct 13, 2009 at 9:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight.com has an interesting statistical analysis of the upcoming vote in Maine on a proposed gay marriage ban, design to turn back the clock in a state where gay marriage was recently legalized: "Back in April, I conducted an analysis of the prospects of a gay marriage ban becoming law in each of the 50 states. The analysis found that support for gay marriage bans was strongly tied to two factors: the degree of religiosity in a state, as measured by 2008 Gallup tracking surveys, and the year that the initiative was up for vote -- marriage bans have lost support at a rate of about 2 percent per year, ceteris paribus. That analysis concluded that a Maine is one of 11 states that would probably vote to reject a ban on gay marriage if a referendum were held this year. Mainers, in fact, will soon have a chance to test this proposition. In November, they will go to the polls to vote on Question 1; a yes vote would overturn a law passed earlier this year by the state's legislature that permits gays and lesbians to get married in the state." To read Silver's complete analysis, click here.
