NYC Mayor 2009: Incumbent Faces Strong Challenger
Posted Oct 08, 2009 at 11:01 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
With less than a month to go in New York City's race for Mayor, popular incumbent Mike Bloomberg (I) faces a surprisingly strong challenge from his Democrat opponent, City Comptroller Bill Thompson according to a new SurveyUSA survey: "It's Bloomberg 51%, Thompson 43%. Bloomberg has outspent Thompson 16:1. Bloomberg, first elected in 2001, term-limited until the law was changed to permit him to seek a 3rd term, leads among older voters, trails among younger voters. The Democratic challenger leads in Brooklyn and The Bronx. The billionaire incumbent, who is running on the Republican and Independence Party lines, leads in Manhattan, Queens and Staten Island. Thompson leads among blacks, Bloomberg leads among whites, Hispanics and Asians. Democrats split. Republicans and Independents back Bloomberg."
With very high approval ratings, as high as 70% in recent months, Bloomberg's diminished showing relative to his popularity stems from two problems: voter resentment with his successful attempt to suspend voter approved term-limits in order to run for a third term and the increasing clout of the Working Families Party, a union-supported independent party that usually backs Democrats in New York City races and has a proven ability to increase turnout for its candidates in cycles where overall turnout is moderate to low.
