NY-23: Could The Democrat Still Win?
Posted Nov 01, 2009 at 10:37 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
With Republican Dede Scozzafava pulling out of the special election in New York's 23rd congressional district, many observers have jumped to the conclusion that most of her voters will jump to Conservative Party candidate (and recipient of many GOP endorsements over the past few weeks) Doug Hoffman. PollTrack is joining a number of commentators over the past 24 hours in saying: not so fast. In examining the cross tabs in the most recent Siena Institute poll of the district, one thing is clear: Scozzafava supporters are often as moderate--or even more so--than the candidate herself.
Among her supporters, president Obama enjoys considerable support, and Hoffman's favorable rating remains low. So where will these voters go this coming Tuesday: some with vote for Scozzafava anyway. Some will move over to Hoffman out of party loyalty (the national and local GOP have now endorsed him). And some will undoubtedly vote for Democrat Bill Owens. The outcome may well be a squeaker between the Democrat and Conservative Party candidates. PollTrack is trolling around for any polling in the district over the next 48 hours. So stay tuned.
