1 1 <p>President Obama's approval rating on election day was at 50%. This number suggests a problem for the Democrats, especially to the extend that it reflects a drop off in independent voter support. Indeed, it was the dramatic decline in the support of unaffiliated and independent voters that gave Republicans a decided advantage in Virginia and New Jersey. The situation with indepdendents was dire: Republican Christie won independent voters in New Jersey by 30 points (60%-30%); Obama won them 51%-47% last year. McDonnell in Virginia won indies by 33 points (66%-33%); Obama held a slight 49%-48% last year.With a nation closely divided between the two mainstream parties, independents can now tip the balance in states and localities where party registration is relatively even. In New Jersey, the message is even more dire for the Democrats: with Democrats enjoying a significant advantage in party identification, Jon Corzine still lost. Does this prefigure Democratic loses in the 2010 midterms? Hard to tell this early. But <em>PollTrack </em>will be watching independent voters--as well as the President's approval numbers--very closely in the coming months.</p> 2009-11-04T10:52:32-05:00 1203 false true 2009-11-04T11:00:52-05:00 2009-11-04T11:00:52-05:00