NY-23: Political Realigniment or Fluke?
Posted Nov 09, 2009 at 9:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
Last Tuesday's special election in New York's 23rd congressional district was dramatic in in terms of its result: no Democrat has held this seat in over a century. So, does the result suggest a permanent realignment or a fluke in the district? The answer is unclear at this point. As Stuart Rothenberg suggests, a divided Republican party--fraught with in-fighting--may well have handed the seat to the Democrat in a largely GOP district: "Bill Owens' victory in New York's 23rd was the good news for Democrats this week and continued the party's winning streak in competitive House special elections. But the dynamic that helped Owens win- including a divided Republican Party- can't be ignored and aren't likely to be replicated again. For now, his reelection next year is a pure toss-up." Still, PollTrack wonders if the party's internal squabbles will cause it to lose more seats next year, as ultra-conservative attempts to knock off Republican moderates in the primaries results in unelectable GOP contenders in the general election.
