Generic Congressional Ballot: Who's Really Ahead?
Posted Nov 12, 2009 at 9:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
With the full House up for election next year, who's really ahead in terms of political support. The Congressional Generic ballot, which measures general support for the two major parties in these races, offers a snapshot of voter sentiment. Yet, given dramatic differences in likely voter models, three major polling organizations come out with startlingly different results. For the first time in months, for example, Republicans have moved ahead of Democrats by 48% to 44% among registered voters in the latest update on Gallup's generic congressional ballot for the 2010 House elections, after trailing by six points in July and two points last month. Two other pollsters also weigh in, with contradictory results:
| CNN/Opinion Research | Democrats 50, Republicans 44 | Democrats +6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | Democrats 38, Republicans 42 |
Republicans +4
|
