MA US Senate: Two Venerable Political Analysts Rate Race A Toss Up
Posted Jan 15, 2010 at 8:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
Two venerable political analysts--Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg-now rate the special election in Massachusetts to fill the US Senate seat of the late-Edward Kennedy as a toss up. Calling the race "one of the toughest we've had in a long time, " Cook observes: "The modern electoral history of federal statewide races in Massachusetts argues strongly that while state Attorney General Martha Coakley, the Democratic nominee, could have a close race, at the end of the day it's unlikely that she ends up losing. After all, no Republican Senate candidate has won in the Bay State since 1972. But the non-quantitative arguments are quite strong. Republican Scott Brown has been the superior candidate with, by a long shot, the better campaign... To the extent Coakley may still have a tiny advantage, it appears not to meet the normal standard we have for a 'lean' rating: a competitive race but one in which one party has a clear advantage. We see no clear advantage."
PollTrack suggests another reason to rate the race a toss up: the extreme unpopularity of incumbent Democratic governor Deval Patrick, whose reelection numbers hover around 30% (his approval rating is even lower).
