MA US Senate: The Question Of Turnout
Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 3:11 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
While reports of heavy turnout might help Democrat Martha Coakley--suggesting that the Democrats and their union supporters are churning out the vote--it could easily work the other way. It appears from polling that the most enthusiastic and fired up voters are Republicans and disaffected independents, who see their vote as a chance to scuttle a health care reform package that they do not support. Thus, it is almost impossible to predict the implications of heavy turnout. Does it suggest that the Democratic machine turned out its base, perhaps sufficiently to overtake Republican Scott Brown's polling advantage? Or are Brown's supports so fired up that they are willing to brave cold, wind, and snow to cast their vote to assure Brown's victory? That the inclement weather may keep elderly voters--who trend more conservative--from the polls, helps Coakley. That it also may dissuade younger voters, who have a poor record of participation to begin with, could very well help Brown. Stay tuned.
