Obama's Daily Tracking Poll Average Drops Back A Bit
Posted Sep 29, 2008 at 3:02 PM by Maurice Berger
Today's daily tracking poll average shows Obama up by 4%, a drop of 2.3 from yesterday. What does this mean? Perhaps nothing. Rolling samples taken mostly over the weekend are often unreliable, since its harder to capture representative samples as leisure-time activities draw large blocs of voters out of the home (and away from pollsters' phone calls). It could be the inclusion of the GW/Battleground daily tracker in today's average--a poll not issued on Saturday or Sunday--that is driving the Democrat's numbers slightly downward. (The poll has consistently given McCain a modest lead of 1% to 2% over the past week, contradicting other surveys. The pollster's models for likelihood of turnout and party affiliation and enthusiasm may be responsible for this variation.) Or is the bloc of undecided voters--that 8% to 12% of the electorate now in the middle--fluid and therefor easily impressed by shifting news events or campaign strategies? In a few days, these samples may settle into something approximating a trend. Or not. Stay tuned.
