Generic Congressional Ballot: Who's Ahead And By How Much
Posted Oct 06, 2010 at 8:59 AM by Maurice Berger
As per Real Clear Politics: "Probably the biggest polling news of the day was the Gallup generic ballot poll that showed Republicans leading Democrats 56 percent to 38 percent. That 18-point lead is predicated upon a "low turnout" scenario, and would represent historic highs for the Republican Party -- it would probably represent the most seats won by either party since the early 70s.
Gallup also produced a model anticipating slightly higher turnout. Under this model, the Republicans led by 13 points, which is still an historic result in the Gallup model. Among registered voters, Republicans led by 3 points.
Rasmussen Reports, by contrast, saw the race tightening significantly, with Republicans leading Democrats by only three points, 45 percent to 42 percent. This represented the closest ballot test in roughly a year. Of course, the big difference between the two polls is the number of undecideds; it may well be that Democrats are truly stuck at around 40 percent, and undecideds are leaning heavily GOP."
