One Reason Why McCain Has Fallen Behind
Posted Oct 02, 2008 at 10:05 AM by Maurice Berger
There may be a reason why Obama's poll numbers are improving in places like Florida and Nevada: the inside statistics of many national and statewide public opinion surveys suggest that older voters--both the most reliable and heretofore the most Republican demographic--are shifting towards the Democrat. Why? Because the failure of the House to pass bailout legislation effects seniors inordinately, many of whom rely on the immediate flow of retirement funds now locked up in the market. Because they do not have the luxury of time--and thus cannot move their money around to protect long-term growth--voters over 60 have been flooding Congress with phone calls and E-mails. While much of the nation continues to view the bailout negatively, seniors have come around. Who do they blame for Washington's inaction on the matter? Republicans. By increasing numbers, voters now rate the economy as the number one problem facing the country and say that it is the Democrats, in general, and Obama in particular, who are best able to handle this issue. The longer the crisis continues, the more at risk the McCain campaign becomes. Yet, if the past two weeks have represented a big opening for the Obama campaign, the election itself is far from over. For one. Obama's aggregate lead hovers around 5%--a good but by no means foolproof margin. The electorate has been highly--and unusually--volatile this year. If the election was held two weeks ago, the Republican may well have won. Today, the Democrat would be victorious. The big question: will the wave of support that has kept Obama on top for all but a few weeks since June catapult him over the finish line in November? Or is an astoundingly fluid electorate setting us up for yet another momentum shift?
