PollTrack Analysis: Tomorrow's Special Election in NY-9
Posted Sep 12, 2011 at 9:30 AM by Maurice Berger
Tomorrow's special election in New York's 9th congressional district,
for the seat vacated by Rep. Anthony Weiner who resigned earlier this
year, a new Siena poll reports that the Republican candidate, Robert Turner, now holds a six
point lead over David Weprin, 50% to 44%. If Turner should win in this
vastly Democratic district, Weprin's loss may hold real implications for next year's election cycle. Anecdotal reporting suggests that some Democrats, upset with the Obama administration, may intend to send a message to the president by voting for Turner. The problem for the Democrats: if the heavily Democratic, New York district tips into the Republican column, then far closer swing states, such as Florida, Ohio, and even Pennsylvania--Obama's approval in the three states is somewhere in the mid to high 30s--are undoubtedly in play. The president's approval numbers at this point remain problematic. Two previous incumbents with relatively low numbers in their third year, but who went on to win reelection--Reagan and Clinton--were at this point in their presidency recovering politically, each nearing the 50% mark. Obama's present approval number averages 44%, far below the 48% thought to be a good marker of potential reelection. Stay tuned.
