Intrade: Futures Market Points to Obama Victory
Posted Oct 10, 2008 at 12:02 PM by Maurice Berger
Intrade, the preeminent online futures market, where bets are placed on the likely outcome of upcoming events, has some bad news for McCain. The money is now on Obama to win in November, by a wide margin. For the first time since the fall campaign began, the Democrat now grazes the 80% mark (this morning Obama was trading at 79.1 vs 22.0 for McCain). The market itself is highly impressionable, responding quickly to the ebb and flow of news events and public opinion polls. And it sometimes gets it wrong: the day before the New Hampshire Democratic primary in January, Obama was trading at +95.0. Clinton, of course, went on to win. In state by state trading, Obama's lead is just as lopsided, with bettors predicting a 353 to 185 electoral vote advantage for the Democrat.
