Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall
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/images/jivy/map_titles/1.gif Today’s Map Today monitors the current status of the race.
Roll over a state for poll averages, click for commentary.
Basemap
AL
9
AK
3
AZ
11
AR
6
CA
55
CO
9
CT
7
DE
3
DC
3
FL
29
GA
16
HI
4
ID
4
IL
20
IN
11
IA
6
KS
6
KY
8
LA
8
ME
3
MD
10
MA
11
MI
16
MN
10
MS
6
MO
10
MT
3
NE
5
NV
6
NH
4
NJ
14
NM
5
NY
29
NC
15
ND
3
OH
18
OK
7
OR
7
PA
20
RI
4
SC
9
SD
3
TN
11
TX
38
UT
6
VT
3
VA
13
WV
5
WI
10
WY
3
ME2
1

270 Needed to Win.

Toss Up
Total 0
Unclear Too close to call 0
Hilary Clinton (Democrat)
Total 322
Democratic Safe 203
Leaning_democratic Leaning 119
Donald Trump (Republican)
Total 216
Republican Safe 143
Leaning_republican Leaning 73
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Post-Convention Bounce

Posted Aug 26, 2008 at 1:46 AM by Maurice Berger

By now, you may have heard a lot about "bounce"--the ticking up in poll numbers after a presidential candidate's national convention. The average "bounce" is 5%. This week, Polltrack will be paying close attention to voter response to the Democratic National Convention (and next week to the Republican National Convention). Will Obama's numbers start nudging up in the Daily Tracking Polls? Will he get the post-convention bounce he needs to pull ahead of McCain?

And what of the unprecedented timing of the two conventions, now within days of each other? Will this rapid turn around--now a matter of a few days rather than the traditional lag of three to four weeks--combined with McCain's naming of his VP later this week blunt or distort this bounce?

Keep in mind: the two daily trackers analyzed on this site--Rasmussen and Gallup--represent a rolling average of nightly surveys over the previous three or four days. Thus, any meaningful improvement in Obama's numbers may not be felt until Wednesday or Thursday at the earliest.

One problem for the Democrats, however, is the timing of the conventions relative to each other: the Republicans go last, usually the favored position, affording the party the "last word" as voters finally start focusing on the fall campaign.