Do Early Voters Prefer Obama More Than Election Day Voters?
Posted Oct 28, 2008 at 9:34 AM by Maurice Berger
It certain battle ground states Obama has a clear--even dramatic edge--among early voters (as much as two-to-one). Yet, might the reverse be true for voters intending to cast their ballots on Election Day. During the primaries, Obama tended to do much better with early voters (who are the most enthusiastic in the electorate at large). Clinton tended to out-pace Obama with late-deciders and voters who actually turned out on election day. Certain pollsters are recording a similar phenomenon in the general election. As PPD writes of its North Carolina numbers: "The deciding factor for President in North Carolina could be the weather on November 4th. Barack Obama is banking a huge lead among early voters, 63-36, who account for about a third of the likely electorate. But John McCain is up 53-42 with folks who plan to vote between now and election day. A rainy day could be to Obama's considerable benefit." Could a last minute surge in the election day set make for a closer race in some states? And with more than 250 electoral votes now called "Safe" for Obama (with +10% DEM leads on average) will it even make a difference?
