US Senate Race Chart: DEM-56, REP-40, TCTC-4
Posted Oct 31, 2008 at 1:19 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
The fundamentals of the races for US Senate suggest a strong Democratic title in the new Congress. With PollTrack moving the Mississippi special race from "Too Close To Call" to "Lean Republican," the new balance of power reads: DEM-56, REP-40, TCTC-4. With the Republicans holding at least 40 seats according to out tabulation, it may be difficult for the Democrat's to meet their expressed goal of achieving a 60 seat majority-- the number needed to end a filibuster and close to the 2/3 required to override a presidential veto. To do so, the Democrats would have to pick Senate seats in some of the reddest states on the map, including Georgia, Kentucky, and Mississippi. But with Alaska possibly in the Democrats hands, one more wavering--and traditionally red state--may now be out of play for the Republicans. Below you will find updated polling averages for races marked "Too Close To Call." See chart below:
US Senate Race Chart: 31 October 2008
Solid Democrat: Arkanas: Pryor; Delaware: Biden; Illinois: Durbin; Iowa: Harkin; Massachusetts: Kerry; Michigan: Levin; Montana: Baucus; New Jersey: Lautenberg; Rhode Island: Reed, West Virginia: Rockefeller; Virginia: Warner (d) vs Gilmore (r) (VA)
Likely Democrat: South Dakota: Johnson (SD)
Lean Democrat: Louisiana: Landrieu (LA); Colorado: Udall (d) vs Schaffer (r) (CO); New Mexico: Udall (d) vs Pierce (r) (NM); New Hampshire: Sununu (r) vs Shaheen (d); Alaska: Stevens (r) vs Begich (d)
Too Close To Call (with PollTrack poll averages)
Georgia: Chambliss (r) 46.2% vs Martin (d) 43.2%
Minnesota: Coleman (r) 40.7% vs Franken (d) 38.7% vs Barkley (i) 14.3%
North Carolina: Dole (r) 44.5% vs Hagan (d) 46.5%
Oregon: Smith (r) 41.0% vs Merkley (d) 44.8%
Lean Republican: Kentucky: McConnell; Mississippi (special): Wicker (r) vs Musgrove (d)
Likely Republican: Maine: Collins (ME), Nebraska: Yohanns vs Kleeb (d); Oklahoma: Inhofe (OK)
Solid Republican: Alabama: Sessions ; Idaho: Lish (r) vs LaRocco (d) (ID), Kansas: Roberts (KS), Mississippi: Cochran (regular); South Carolina: Graham Tennessee: Alexander ; Texas: Cornyn; Wyoming (regular): Enzi; Wyoming (special): Barrasso (r) vs Carter (d)
Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-56, REP-39, TCTC-5
Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49
BOLD: Leading In Race
Italics: Incumbent
