US Senate Race Chart: DEM-57, REP-40, TCTC-3
Posted Nov 01, 2008 at 10:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
The fundamentals of the races for US Senate suggest a strong Democratic title in the new Congress. Based on the extraordinarily wide and deep support for Obama in the state or Oregon, PollTrack believes his coattails may be enough to sweep Democratic US Senate challenger Jeff Merkley to victory in his race against Republican incumbent Gordon Smith. With PollTrack moving the Oregon race from "Too Close To Call" to "Lean Democrat," the new balance of power reads: DEM-57, REP-40, TCTC-3. With the Republicans holding at least 40 seats according to out tabulation, it may be difficult for the Democrat's to meet their expressed goal of achieving a 60 seat majority-- the number needed to end a filibuster and close to the 2/3 required to override a presidential veto. To do so, the Democrats would have to pick Senate seats in some of the reddest states on the map, including Georgia, Kentucky, and Mississippi. See chart below:
US Senate Race Chart: 1 November 2008
Solid Democrat: Arkanas: Pryor; Delaware: Biden; Illinois: Durbin; Iowa: Harkin; Massachusetts: Kerry; Michigan: Levin; Montana: Baucus; New Jersey: Lautenberg; Rhode Island: Reed, West Virginia: Rockefeller; Virginia: Warner (d) vs Gilmore (r) (VA)
Likely Democrat: South Dakota: Johnson (SD)
Lean Democrat: Louisiana: Landrieu (LA); Colorado: Udall (d) vs Schaffer (r) (CO); New Mexico: Udall (d) vs Pierce (r) (NM); New Hampshire: Sununu (r) vs Shaheen (d); Alaska: Stevens (r) vs Begich (d); Oregon: Smith (r) vs Merkley (d)
Too Close To Call (with PollTrack poll averages)
Georgia: Chambliss (r) 46.2% vs Martin (d) 43.2%
Minnesota: Coleman (r) 40.7% vs Franken (d) 38.7% vs Barkley (i) 14.3%
North Carolina: Dole (r) 44.5% vs Hagan (d)
46.5%
Lean Republican: Kentucky: McConnell; Mississippi (special): Wicker (r) vs Musgrove (d)
Likely Republican: Maine: Collins (ME), Nebraska: Yohanns vs Kleeb (d); Oklahoma: Inhofe (OK)
Solid Republican: Alabama: Sessions ; Idaho: Lish (r) vs LaRocco (d) (ID), Kansas: Roberts (KS), Mississippi: Cochran (regular); South Carolina: Graham Tennessee: Alexander ; Texas: Cornyn; Wyoming (regular): Enzi; Wyoming (special): Barrasso (r) vs Carter (d)
Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-57, REP-40, TCTC-3
Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49
BOLD: Leading In Race
Italics: Incumbent
