US Senate Race Chart: DEM-58, REP-40, TCTC-2
Posted Nov 02, 2008 at 11:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
The fundamentals of the races for US Senate suggest a strong Democratic title in the new Congress. In North Carolina, challenger Democrat Kay Hagan now hits the 50% mark in PT's statewide poll average and holds onto a 5.5% overall lead. With Republican Elizabeth Dole's negative campaign backfiring, and an unprecedented African-American turnout in early voting in the state, PollTrack now believes that Hagan is likely to win in NC and moves the state from "Too Close To Call" to "Lean Democrat." The new balance of power reads: DEM-58, REP-40, TCTC-2. With the Republicans holding at least 40 seats according to out tabulation, it may be difficult for the Democrat's to meet their expressed goal of achieving a 60 seat majority-- the number needed to end a filibuster and close to the 2/3 required to override a presidential veto. The Democrats are now two seats shy of this goal according to PT and would need to pick off the remaining "To Close" races--in Minnesota and Georgia--to achive their goal. See chart below:
US Senate Race Chart: 2 November 2008
Solid Democrat: Arkanas: Pryor; Delaware: Biden; Illinois: Durbin; Iowa: Harkin; Massachusetts: Kerry; Michigan: Levin; Montana: Baucus; New Jersey: Lautenberg; Rhode Island: Reed, West Virginia: Rockefeller; Virginia: Warner (d) vs Gilmore (r) (VA)
Likely Democrat: South Dakota: Johnson (SD)
Lean Democrat: Louisiana: Landrieu (LA); Colorado: Udall (d) vs Schaffer (r) (CO); New Mexico: Udall (d) vs Pierce (r) (NM); New Hampshire: Sununu (r) vs Shaheen (d); Alaska: Stevens (r) vs Begich (d); Oregon: Smith (r) vs Merkley (d); North Carolina: Dole (r) vs Hagan (d)
Too Close To Call (with PollTrack poll averages)
Georgia: Chambliss (r) 46.2% vs Martin (d) 43.2%
Minnesota: Coleman (r) 40.7% vs Franken (d) 38.7% vs Barkley (i) 14.3%
Lean Republican: Kentucky: McConnell; Mississippi (special): Wicker (r) vs Musgrove (d)
Likely Republican: Maine: Collins (ME), Nebraska: Yohanns vs Kleeb (d); Oklahoma: Inhofe (OK)
Solid Republican: Alabama: Sessions ; Idaho: Lish (r) vs LaRocco (d) (ID), Kansas: Roberts (KS), Mississippi: Cochran (regular); South Carolina: Graham Tennessee: Alexander ; Texas: Cornyn; Wyoming (regular): Enzi; Wyoming (special): Barrasso (r) vs Carter (d)
Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-58, REP-40, TCTC-2
Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49
BOLD: Leading In Race
Italics: Incumbent
