Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall
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/images/jivy/map_titles/1.gif Today’s Map Today monitors the current status of the race.
Roll over a state for poll averages, click for commentary.
Basemap
AL
9
AK
3
AZ
11
AR
6
CA
55
CO
9
CT
7
DE
3
DC
3
FL
29
GA
16
HI
4
ID
4
IL
20
IN
11
IA
6
KS
6
KY
8
LA
8
ME
3
MD
10
MA
11
MI
16
MN
10
MS
6
MO
10
MT
3
NE
5
NV
6
NH
4
NJ
14
NM
5
NY
29
NC
15
ND
3
OH
18
OK
7
OR
7
PA
20
RI
4
SC
9
SD
3
TN
11
TX
38
UT
6
VT
3
VA
13
WV
5
WI
10
WY
3
ME2
1

270 Needed to Win.

Toss Up
Total 0
Unclear Too close to call 0
Hilary Clinton (Democrat)
Total 322
Democratic Safe 203
Leaning_democratic Leaning 119
Donald Trump (Republican)
Total 216
Republican Safe 143
Leaning_republican Leaning 73
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Morning Report: The Fundamentals Remain Strong For Obama

Posted Nov 03, 2008 at 1:43 AM by Maurice Berger

A close examination of polling out this morning suggests that while a few states have drawn very close--Florida, North Carolina, Montana, and Missouri in particular--the race is appearing to stabilize for Obama. Ohio and Virginia, though having drawn much closer over the past three days--and remain "Too Close To Call" on Today's Map--appear to lean to the Democrat as of this morning. Several states now appear to be leaning to McCain--West Virginia and Indiana. The great news for Obama: all nine states were won by George W. Bush in 2004. The Democrat holds a solid, unusually commanding lead in nearly all of the states won by Kerry, except Pennsylvania (and according to the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll this morning, Minnesota, where the race has drawn down to 49% to 46% for Obama). The slight bit of good news for McCain, enough voters remain undecided or are persuadable in enough states to produce a few surprises. (This result would imply that these voters, now mostly white and center-right, would trend towards their demographic--as undecided voters often do--and thus would favor McCain by a considerable margin.) But with Obama at or above the 50% mark in many of these battleground states, McCain would also have to pick off a fairly large bloc of voters who now say they are committed to the Democrat. Obama's overall structural advantage in the Kerry-blue states of 2004 also leaves him in much better shape than McCain: the Democrat's lead in "Safe" electoral votes--in which a candidate has a demographic advantage in a state, leads beyond the margin of error, and has a top-line of 50% or more-- now stands at more than 100, 238 to 127. (Obama's number here could drop to 228 if more polls corroborate a narrowing race in Minnesota.) As of this morning, the map solidly favors Obama. PollTrack expects an enormous amount of fresh polling throughout the day, so stay tuned for updates.