Palin and the McCain "Bounce"
Posted Sep 04, 2008 at 12:59 AM by Maurice Berger
Sarah Palin's speech--both a blistering attack on Obama and an emotional appeal to small town, middle-American values--no doubt fired up the Republican base. It, also, no doubt fired up the Democratic base.
The dueling bases each hover around 40%, leaving a large bloc of
independent, undecided (including many Reagan Democrats and a smaller number of moderate Republicans), or unaffiliated voters. Thus, the key demographic to
watch--one that will determine the height and depth of McCain's post convention
"bounce"--are these voters. Obama has seen a modest up tick in
support from these voters in his post convention numbers.
Is this the result of a successful convention, one that delivered the
candidate's message effectively and helped build trust among unaffiliated
voters?
Or are these voters reacting to Palin, whose hard right politics and religious
fundamentalism edge her towards the political extreme rather than the center? Has the hint of scandals turned off voters who now suspect that McCain—a
candidate whose major selling point is his bold and clear-headed judgment—exercised
poor judgment or even political expediency during the vetting process?
Can one commanding speech alter this dynamic? And, perhaps most important, will
the choice of running mates in this election, as in most presidential cycles, have little effect on the outcome?
