Predictions Market Gives Obama A 92.7% Chance Of Victory
Posted Nov 04, 2008 at 2:10 PM by Maurice Berger
On Intrade, the nation's preeminent futures market, where online traders bet on the outcome of upcoming events, traders are almost positive they know who will be our next president: Obama. Futures traders now give him an 92.7%+ chance of victory in today. McCain is at his lowest point to date on Intrade--this afternoon coming in at a paltry 8.0%. Intrade very often gets it right; sometimes it can be startlingly off, as it was on the morning of the New Hampshire Democratic primary this January, when traders predicted a staggering 99% chance of victory for Obama. Hillary Clinton went on to win the primary later that day.
