Georgia Runoff: Tunrout (And Its Racial Breakdown) Will Determine Outcome
Posted Dec 01, 2008 at 1:03 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
Will African-American voters turn out in record numbers--as they did for the presidential race in November--or will white voters carry the day in tomorrow's US Senate runoff in Georgia? Will today's visit from former Republican VP candidate Sarah Palin make a difference? As MSNBC explains: "The numbers game in the Georgia runoff is simple: Chambliss is hoping Palin will spike turnout among his base supporters, white evangelicals, while Martin was hoping Obama could spike turnout among his base, African-Americans. Turnout among both groups will be down, that's a fact. The question is which group will down more from Election Day? Answer that question, and you'll know the winner." PollTrack believes the odds favor Republican Saxby Chambliss: he continues to lead in all public opinion polls AND he just grazed the 50% mark on November 4th, even with historic African-American turnout. He's coming into a runoff where the black vote may be down from the presidential race AND he only needs only a handful of votes to take him over the 50% mark relative to November 4th. So Martin remains the underdog.
