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Minnesota Recount: Coleman's Lead Remains Stable

Posted Dec 04, 2008 at 12:30 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Minnesota recount reports that Republican incumbent Norm Coleman is leading Al Franken by 316 votes, with 98% of the recount completed. About 6,000 challenged ballots remain. The campaign of challenger Al Franken contests this number, claiming that its internal count now has the Democrat leading by 22 votes. As MSNBC reports: "The difference here, as one of us pointed out a couple of days ago, is that the Franken camp is counting the challenged ballots (the way it thinks the independent analysts are counting them). But the Coleman campaign disputes the Franken numbers. The recount will be completed by the end of the week, and the state’s Canvassing Board will make the final call on the challenged ballots on December 16." Given the net gain made by Coleman yesterday of 36 votes, PollTrack believes that it is doubtful that Franken's internal numbers will hold. If the official recount ends with Coleman ahead, is is also doubtful that Franken can muster the kind of political support he will need--both statewide and nationally--to support reversing three consecutive wins for Coleman. The first count had the Republucan incumbent ahead; the statewide canvas had him in the lead; and a third win  now seems likely when the official recount numbers are reported on 16 December.