Democrat Murphy Takes The Lead In NY-20
Posted Mar 27, 2009 at 10:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
In the dramatic race to fill the seat vacated by New York US Senator Kirstien Gillibrand, a new Siena Institute Poll reports that the Democrat, Scott Murphy has erased Republican Jim Tidesco's lead. As the special election enters the final weekend, Murphy has reversed a four-point deficit and turned it into a four-point lead over Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco. Murphy leads 47%-43%, having trailed two weeks ago by a 45%-41%. One reason for Murphy's imporovement: Tedisco’s campaign is viewed by voters as more negative by a 44%-25% margin, while Murphy’s campaign is seen as more positive. “While the percentage of likely voters supporting Murphy has risen about three points per week for the last four weeks, the percentage supporting Tedisco has dropped three points. In the last four weeks, Murphy turned a 12-point deficit into a four-point lead,” said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. Still, the district leans Republican. With GOP registration outnumbering Democratic, the race could come down to turnout. Perhaps somewhat ominiously for the Democrat, Siena reports that "regardless of who they are supporting, by a 45% to 35% margin, voters think Tedisco will win the election." Stay tuned for PollTrack updates.
