The Pendulum Swings Back To Obama
Posted Sep 18, 2008 at 9:42 AM by Maurice Berger
As of this morning, PollTrack's reading of national periodic and daily tracking surveys issued over the past few days suggests that momentum has swung back to Obama. A CBS News/New YorkTimes survey issued last night, for example, gives the Democrat +5% among likely voters: 49% to 44%. A Quinnipiac national poll released this morning reports a similar lead for Obama: 49% to 45%. And yesterday's daily trackers (save Rasmussen, which gave McCain an insignificant 1% lead, but today shows the race tied at 48%) reported Obama running slightly ahead of his Republican rival. How significant is this swing? PollTrack observes that Obama's numbers have improved in both national and some statewide samples taken just in the past few days. These samples may reflect public discontent or anxiety about McCain's much publicized remark om Monday that the "fundamentals of the economy are strong," a comment followed by increasingly devastating economic news. The CBS/NYT survey points out, for example, that the 61% of voters who believe the economy is getting worse are now "heavily for Obama." Can the Obama campaign succeed in painting McCain as out of touch on the economy? If so, the candidate may be able to increase his lead beyond the statistical tie of recent weeks. Right now--and as it has been for weeks--the race remains a statistical tie (PollTrack's national average yesterday: 45.7% to 45.7%) with the lead in flux, depending on the direction of female and independent voters.
