Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall
Our innovative presidential election maps offer a snapshot of where things stand and where they are headed in the state-by-state hunt for electoral votes. Armed with public opinion polls, the history and demographics of each state, knowledge of the nation’s geographic and cultural diversity, and common sense and intuition, political director Maurice Berger offers continuous updates and a blog (below map) on the state of the presidential race. Today’s Map Today monitors its current status. Tomorrow’s Map Today charts its momentum in the coming days or weeks. And Election Day Today records the actual outcome of the 2012 presidential race.
Today
Tomorrow
Election Day
/images/jivy/map_titles/1.gif Today’s Map Today monitors the current status of the race.
Roll over a state for poll averages, click for commentary.
Basemap
AL
9
AK
3
AZ
11
AR
6
CA
55
CO
9
CT
7
DE
3
DC
3
FL
29
GA
16
HI
4
ID
4
IL
20
IN
11
IA
6
KS
6
KY
8
LA
8
ME
3
MD
10
MA
11
MI
16
MN
10
MS
6
MO
10
MT
3
NE
5
NV
6
NH
4
NJ
14
NM
5
NY
29
NC
15
ND
3
OH
18
OK
7
OR
7
PA
20
RI
4
SC
9
SD
3
TN
11
TX
38
UT
6
VT
3
VA
13
WV
5
WI
10
WY
3
ME2
1

270 Needed to Win.

Toss Up
Total 0
Unclear Too close to call 0
Barack Obama (Democrat)
Total 303
Democratic Safe 217
Leaning_democratic Leaning 86
Republican (Republican)
Total 235
Republican Safe 191
Leaning_republican Leaning 44
Hide the Map
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Majority Want Gun Background Checks

Posted May 21, 2013 at 5:04 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by Gallup, "65% of Americans say the U.S. Senate should have passed the measure that would have expanded background checks for gun purchases, while 29% agree with the Senate's failure to pass the measure." Here is Gallup's chart:

(Asked of a half sample) As you may know, last week the U.S. Senate voted on, but did not pass, a measure to expand background checks for gun purchases. Do you think the Senate should or should not have passed the measure to expand background checks for gun purchases? April 2013 results

Are Democrats Too Complacent In Massachusetts?

Posted May 20, 2013 at 4:04 PM by Maurice Berger

Stuart Rothenberg notes that democratic complacency in the 2013 special election in Massachusetts to fill the US Senate seat vacated by John Kerry could backfire: "The special election . . . took an interesting turn this week, when former Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez drew more than 50 percent of the vote to win the GOP nomination. . . . The total GOP primary vote was less than what Lynch received in the Democratic race, and the Bay State’s Democratic bent is undeniable. But Gomez has an interesting story, and at least the GOP didn’t nominate an old white guy who had served in the Massachusetts Legislature. . . Democrats won’t allow themselves to be surprised the way they were when Scott P. Brown beat Martha Coakley in the last Senate special election, in early 2010, and the national party’s image can’t do anything but hurt Gomez’s already uphill chances. But there is no reason to rush to judgment on this race, at least for a couple of weeks, and it’s worth watching to see how it unfolds. Obviously, Markey begins as the clear favorite.

Clinton Way Ahead For 2016 Democratic Nomination

Posted May 15, 2013 at 2:29 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac reports former US Senator and First Lady Hillary Clinton holds a commanding lead over other potential 2016 candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination, with 65%, followed by Joe Biden at 13% and Andrew Cuomo at 4%.

PPP Survey: Mixed Result About Obama's Effectiveness as President

Posted May 14, 2013 at 4:25 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Pew Research poll reports mixed results on voter's attitudes about President Obama's performance in office: just 49% believes that President Obama is "able to get things done," a steep decline from 57% in January and closer to his levels of confidence in 2012. Conversely, and a net positive for the president, the vast majority of Americans, 67%, believe Obama is fighting hard for his policies, a significant improvement.

Tight Mayoral Race In LA

Posted May 13, 2013 at 2:39 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by the Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs reports that Wendy Greuel and Eric Garcetti are in a virtual dead heat in the Los Angeles mayoral race, where Greuel leads Garcetti by a scant +2%--46% to 45%--among likely voters; 9% remain undecided. The elections is on 21 May 21.

Markey Ahead In MA Special Election, But By How Much?

Posted May 10, 2013 at 8:22 AM by Maurice Berger

Two conflicting polls on the state of the special election to fill Secretary of State's John Kerry's US Senate seat: a new WBUR poll in Massachusetts reports that Democrat Rep. Edward Markey leads Republican Gabriel Gomez, 41% to 35%. This would suggest a very competitive race. But a contemporaneous Suffolk University poll finds Markey ahead by 17% points, 52% to 35%.

Republican Leads In VA Governor's Race

Posted May 09, 2013 at 8:16 AM by Maurice Berger

For decades, the Virginia gubernatorial election has been a bellwether of sorts: the candidate from the opposing party of the president of the United States wins. Will 2013 be an exception. Possibly not. According to a new poll from the Washington Post, Republican Ken Cuccinelli holds an early lead over Democrat Terry McAuliffe in their race for governor, 46% to 41% among all voters and 51% to 41% among those voters most likely to cast a ballot.

MA US Senate Race: Headed For Upset?

Posted May 08, 2013 at 7:54 AM by Maurice Berger

Is the special election to fill the US Senate seat vacated by John Kerry in Massachusetts head for an upset, much like the race to fill the seat of the late-Edward Kennedy? Possibly. A new survey by  Public Policy Polling reports that the race is a surprisingly close , with Democrat Rep. Ed Markey leading Republican Gabriel Gomez by just +4%--44% to 40%.

Majority Not Concerned About Sequestration Cuts

Posted May 07, 2013 at 8:10 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "a majority of Americans still don't know enough to say whether the federal budget sequestration cuts are a good thing or a bad thing for the country -- as has generally been the case since they went into effect. But of those who do who have an opinion, more continue to say sequestration is a bad thing, rather than a good thing." Here is Gallup's chart. 

Is Sanford Bouncing Back In SC?

Posted May 06, 2013 at 10:01 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling in South Carolina's 1st congressional district reports that the special election is too close to call. But it also shows a marked reversal of Republican Mark Sanford's standing in the district. Two weeks ago, PPP showed his Democratic challenger, Elizabeth Colbert Busch, leading by nine points, 50% to 41%. Today, the poll reports that the race is  too close to call, with Sanford edging Colbert Busch by +1%--47% to 46%.

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