Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall Voices on the Ground The Obama Project
Our innovative presidential election maps offer a snapshot of where things stand and where they are headed in the state-by-state hunt for electoral votes. Armed with public opinion polls, the history and demographics of each state, knowledge of the nation’s geographic and cultural diversity, and common sense and intuition, political director Maurice Berger offers continuous updates and a blog (below map) on the state of the presidential race. Today’s Map Today monitors its current status. Tomorrow’s Map Today charts its momentum in the coming days or weeks. And Election Day Today records the actual outcome of the 2008 presidential race.
Today
Tomorrow
Election Day
/images/jivy/map_titles/1.gif Today’s Map Today monitors the current status of the race.
Roll over a state for poll averages, click for commentary.
Basemap
AL
9
AK
3
AZ
10
AR
6
CA
55
CO
9
CT
7
DE
3
DC
3
FL
27
GA
15
HI
4
ID
4
IL
21
IN
11
IA
7
KS
6
KY
8
LA
9
ME
4
MD
10
MA
12
MI
17
MN
10
MS
6
MO
11
MT
3
NE
5
NV
5
NH
4
NJ
15
NM
5
NY
31
NC
15
ND
3
OH
20
OK
7
OR
7
PA
21
RI
4
SC
8
SD
3
TN
11
TX
34
UT
5
VT
3
VA
13
WV
5
WI
10
WY
3

270 Needed to Win.

Toss Up
Total 84
Unclear Too close to call 84
Barack Obama (Democrat)
Total 291
Democratic Safe 238
Leaning_democratic Leaning 53
John McCain (Republican)
Total 163
Republican Safe 127
Leaning_republican Leaning 36
Hide the Map
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Happy 4th Of July: Back On Tuesday!

Posted Jul 02, 2009 at 9:56 AM by Maurice Berger

We're taking a break and will be back with fresh news and polling analysis on Tuesday, 7 July. Happy Holiday!

Congressional Approval Rating Drops To 33%

Posted Jul 02, 2009 at 9:53 AM by Maurice Berger

Public perceptions about the US Congress have dropped even further, according to Gallup: "Americans' approval of the job Congress is doing has slipped to 33% this month, down from the recent high of 39% in March, but still significantly higher than job approval ratings of Congress over the last several years. Although there was no change in the control of either the House of Representatives or the Senate as a result of the 2008 elections, Americans' approval of Congress shot up concurrently with the inauguration of the new president in January -- going from 19% in early January to 31% in February to 39% in March. Congress' approval rating then dropped slightly in April and May, and this month is down further, as noted. . . . The slip in job approval to 33% this month appears to have been caused in part by a significant drop in approval among Democrats, whose 50% rating this month is the lowest since February. Republicans' rating is at 17% while independents' rating is at 31%, neither of which is sharply different from where each has been in the previous four months."

When It Comes To Perceptions About Economic Crisis, Sharp Partisan Differences

Posted Jul 01, 2009 at 9:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A Gallup poll reveals that when it comes to perceptions about the economy and the current economic crisis, sharp partisan differences prevail: "Republicans and Democrats view economic issues facing the country today from substantially different perspectives. Republicans are most likely to be worried about the increasing federal deficit, increasing federal income taxes, and problems state governments have in funding their budgets, while Democrats are most worried about the rising unemployment rate, Americans without health care insurance, and the increasing cost of health care. These results underscore the political tensions that have arisen as the Obama administration and Congress wrestle with how to fix the country's economic problems, while at the same time dealing with the longer-term impact of those efforts. Taken as a whole, Republicans are more concerned than Democrats about the impact of increased federal and state spending, and government regulation of business, while Democrats are more concerned about the societal problems that the increased spending and regulation are designed to address."

Here's a sampling of the top priorities by party affiliation:

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Obama Approval Remains Steady at 61%

Posted Jun 30, 2009 at 10:05 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new CNN/Opinion Research poll, President Obama's approval rating among Americans remains steady. 61% of people questioned say they approve of how Obama's handling his duties as president; 37% disapprove: "The 61% approval rating is down one point from May and down six points from February . . . The poll suggests when it comes to opinions of Obama, gender and generation gaps continue. Sixty-seven percent of women questioned in the survey approve of how Obama's handling his job as president. That number drops to 54 percent among men. Two-thirds of people under 50 years old questioned in the poll approve of the president's handling of his duties. That number drops to 54 percent among people over 50 years of age."

African Americans Say Race Relations No Better With Obama

Posted Jun 29, 2009 at 10:09 AM by Maurice Berger

A majority of African Americans believe that race relations have not improved with the election of President Obama, according to a new CNN/Essence/Opinion Research Corporation poll: "African-Americans really like President Obama, but more and more feel that race relations have not gotten better since he took office, a new national poll found. 96% of African-Americans approve of how Obama is handling his presidency . . . During the 2008 election, 38 percent of blacks surveyed thought racial discrimination was a serious problem. In the new survey, 55 percent of blacks surveyed believed it was a serious problem, which is about the same level as it was in 2000."

Americans Fear Stimulus Money Will Be Wasted

Posted Jun 26, 2009 at 9:15 AM by Maurice Berger

In another sign that Americans remain uneasy with the government's economic stimulus plan, a Rasmussen reports survey indicates that 76% of Americans say it is at least somewhat likely that a large amount of money in the $787-billion economic stimulus plan will be wasted due to inadequate government oversight. Nearly half (46%) say it is very likely, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Only 18% say it is not likely that taxpayer money will be wasted. 65% of Republicans say it is very likely stimulus money will be wasted, a view shared by just 32% of Democrats and the plurality of adults (44%) not affiliated with either party"

Gallup: Economy Still Top Priority For Americans, But Less So

Posted Jun 25, 2009 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger

Americans continue to rank the economy as the most pressing issue facing the country, a new Gallup survey reports. But this number has actually dropped considerably from the beginning of 2009: "Two-thirds of Americans (65%), when asked in an open-ended fashion, continue to name economic problems as the most important problem facing the country -- but this number has steadily declined from 86% in February.Mentions of the economy in Gallup's June update on this question match the net total mentions from June of last year, prior to the global economic collapse. The "net percent mentioning economic problems" reflects the total percentage of respondents who cite some aspect of the economy as the nation's most important problem. The single most frequently mentioned concern more broadly -- a general reference to the economy -- is down from 47% in May to 41% now. Specific mentions of unemployment are steady at 14%." Here is the list in order of priority:

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Americans Less Certain About Obama's Handling Of The Economy

Posted Jun 24, 2009 at 9:34 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll out from ABC News/Washington Post suggests that while President Obama continues to hold a relatively high approval rating, voters are less approving of his handling of the economy, a possible future red flag: "President Obama remains on his honeymoon -- but with a hint of clouds over the beach. They signal economic impatience. A still-impressive 65% of Americans in this new ABC News/Washington Post poll approve of Obama's job performance. But there's been a retrenchment in the expectation that his stimulus plan will improve the economy -- and, consequently, a halt in what had been steadily improving views of the nation's direction. A narrow majority, 52%, now thinks Obama's stimulus program has helped or will help the nation's economy -- down from 59% in late April. While he's vulnerable elsewhere as well, it's the economy that's his make-or-break issue -- and his advantage over the Republicans in trust to handle it, while still broad, has narrowed from a record 37 points, 61%-24%, in April, to 24 points, 55%-31%, today"

Wide Public Support For Government-Run Health Insurance Program

Posted Jun 23, 2009 at 8:52 AM by Maurice Berger

There is wide support for government run health insurance, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll: "Americans overwhelmingly support substantial changes to the health care system and are strongly behind one of the most contentious proposals Congress is considering, a government-run insurance plan to compete with private insurers . . . The poll found that most Americans would be willing to pay higher taxes so everyone could have health insurance and that they said the government could do a better job of holding down health-care costs than the private sector . . . The national telephone survey, which was conducted from June 12 to 16, found that 72 percent of those questioned supported a government-administered insurance plan — something like Medicare for those under 65 — that would compete for customers with private insurers. Twenty percent said they were opposed.

Gallup: Obama Approval Slips To All-Time Low

Posted Jun 22, 2009 at 10:53 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval rating has fallen to 58% in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from June 16-18, "a new low for Obama . . . although not dissimilar to the 59% he has received on four other occasions. 33% of Americans now disapprove of the job Obama is doing as president, just one point shy of his record-high 34% disapproval score from early June. Since Obama took office in January, his approval rating in Gallup tracking has averaged 63%, and most of his three-day ratings have registered above 60%. Approval of Obama did fall to 59% in individual readings in February, March, April, and early June; however, in each case, the rating lasted only a day before rebounding to at least 60%. The latest decline in Obama's approval score, to 58%, results from a drop in approval among political independents as well as among Republicans. Democrats remain as highly supportive of the president as ever."

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