Posted Feb 03, 2012 at 9:30 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released survey by Public Policy Polling in Nevada reports that Mitt Romney is headed for a big victory in tomorrow's caucuses.
Romney leads Newt Gingrich, 50% to 25%, with Ron Paul at 15% and Rick
Santorum at 8%. PPP observes that "the bad news for Gingrich isn't just that's headed for a
distant second place finish. Nevada Republicans actively dislike him,
with only 41% holding a favorable opinion of him to 49% with a negative
one. That's an indication that GOP voters might be starting to sour on
him again, sending his numbers back to pre-South Carolina levels."Nevertheless, Nevada does not have a direct primary, so polling may not accurately reflect the make up of tomorrow's participants. Still, PollTrack these numbers--consistent with other recent polls in the state--suggest a Romney win.
Tagged: Election 2012, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Republican Party, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Nevada
Posted Feb 02, 2012 at 9:08 AM by Maurice Berger
With a new Public Policy Polling survey reporting that President Obama has broken even with Ohio voters-- 48% now approve
of him with an equal 48% disapproving--PollTrack now rates the state "Leaning Democrat" on Today's Map. This call is influenced by another finding in the poll: Just 28% of Ohioans
have a favorable opinion of Mitt Romney to 56% with a negative one. According to the survey, Obama leads Romney in a possible general election match up by
seven points, 49% to 42%.
Tagged: Election 2012, Mitt Romney, President Barack Obama, presidential approval ratings, Ohio
Posted Feb 01, 2012 at 9:17 AM by Maurice Berger
Mitt Romney's substantial victory in yesterday's Florida primary may give him a significant advantage in the GOP presidential nomination contest, but many more primaries and caucuses lie ahead for the Republican field. Here's a breakdown for February:
- Nevada caucuses - February 4
- Maine caucuses - February 4-11
- Minnesota caucuses - February 7
- Missouri primary - February 7
- Colorado caucuses - February 7
- Arizona primary - February 28
- Michigan primary - February 29
Tagged: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Republican nomination, Republican Party, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul
Posted Jan 31, 2012 at 9:36 AM by Maurice Berger
A new USAToday/Gallup survey of the dozen states likely to determine the outcome of
November's election--Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin--concludes that Mitt Romney is the "GOP contender with the best chance of denying
Obama a second term." The poll reports that "in a head-to-head race, Romney leads Obama by a statistically insignificant percentage point, 48%-47% . . . But
Obama leads Gingrich, 54%-40%. The president's standing against him has
risen nine points since early December; Gingrich has fallen by eight. Gingrich fares less well than Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who trails Obama by seven points, 50%-43%, and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, who also trails by seven points, 51%-44%."
Tagged: Election 2012, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Republican Party, Republican nomination, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, President Barack Obama, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia
Posted Jan 30, 2012 at 9:48 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's analysis of half-dozen polls released over the past few days in the GOP presidential primary in Florida suggest a likely win for Mitt Romney. Romney's aggregate lead over his closes competitor, Newt Gingrich, as of Sunday evening is +11.3%--a considerable advantage, with Romney leading in all six polls (with margins ranging from +8% to +16%.
Tagged: Election 2012, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Republican Party, Republican nomination, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Florida
Posted Jan 27, 2012 at 9:52 AM by Maurice Berger
According to an analysis by Gallup, President Obama's third-year approval average--at 44%--is the second lowest for a president in the past 50-years. Looking just at other elected presidents' third-year averages,
only Jimmy Carter's 37%
average in 1979-1980 is lower than Obama's. Ronald Reagan's third-year average of 45% was
similar to Obama's. Crucial to reading this analysis, PollTrack believes, is the perception of the electorate moving into the fourth year: if the economic and political climate appear to be improving, as they were with Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, the voters often reelect a president with relatively low approval ratings in the third year. So PollTrack will keep a close eye on the economic atomosphere as we move into election 2012. Here is Gallup's chart:
Tagged: Election 2012, presidential approval ratings, President Barack Obama, Voter Enthusiasm
Posted Jan 26, 2012 at 10:24 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey by CNN-Time in Florida reports a slight lead for Mitt Romney, who now comes in at 36%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 34%, Rick Santorum at 11% and Ron Paul at 9%. According to the poll, "Romney leads Gingrich among female and white voters,
voters over 50, and those with a college degree... Gingrich holds leads
among men, Tea Party voters, self-identified conservatives -- among whom
he boasts a 10-point advantage -- and born-again Christians. His fans
also appear to be more committed than Romney's."
Tagged: Election 2012, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Republican Party, Republican nomination, Florida
Posted Jan 25, 2012 at 8:36 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released survey by Public Policy Polling survey in Florida reports that Newt Gingrich now leads Mitt Romney by five points in
the GOP presidential race, 38% to 33%, followed by Rick Santorum at 13%
and Ron Paul at 10%. Significantly, Gingrich has gained 12 points since a PPP poll conducted
in Florida a week ago. Romney has dropped 8 points.
Tagged: Election 2012, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Republican Party, Republican nomination, Florida
Posted Jan 24, 2012 at 9:04 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll out from Rasmussen in Florida shows Newt Gingrich now ahead in the GOP
presidential race with 41%, followed by Mitt Romney at 32%, Rick
Santorum at 11% and Ron Paul at 8%.
Tagged: Election 2012, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Republican Party, Republican nomination, Florida
Posted Jan 23, 2012 at 9:03 AM by Maurice Berger
In another sign that the Romney campaign is ion trouble, a new survey by Insider Advantage reports that Newt Gingrich is ahead in the Florida GOP presidential primary. After weeks of leading significantly in the polls in the state, Romney now trails Gingrichby eight points in Florida, according to the poll conducted the day after the former House speaker won the South Carolina primary According Insider Advantage poll, Gingrich is at 34%, Romney 26%, Ron Paul 13% and
former Rick Santorum is last at 11%.
Tagged: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Republican nomination, Republican Party, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Florida
