Posted Aug 31, 2009 at 1:00 AM by Maurice Berger
As of Sunday night, President Obama's approval rating has dropped to 48.5% (to 47.0% negative), the lowest numbers of his young presidency. Rasmussen has Obama's approval number at 47% (among "likely voters"); Gallup has it at 50%. PollTrack will be watching these numbers carefully, especially noting whether they increase after the President returns from vacation (a news down-time that may adversely effect his popularity). Last week, the Gallup organization warned that President Obama's approval rating could wind up representing one of the fastest declines in presidential approval since World War II.
Posted Aug 21, 2009 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack is back on Monday 31 August with full daily reporting.
Posted Aug 21, 2009 at 1:09 AM by Maurice Berger
The American voter is much less in love now with the Democratic then in the period of Barack Obama's inauguration. According to a new Pew Research Survey: "Americans are in an increasingly sour mood about Washington. Barack
Obama’s approval ratings continue to inch downward and a growing
proportion of Americans (63%) think that the president and Republican
leaders are not working together to deal with important issues facing
the nation; in June, 50% said the two sides were not cooperating. While
more people continue to blame Republican leaders than blame Obama, the
percentage saying the president is at fault (17%) is higher now than in
June (12%) and much higher than in February (7%)
In the same
vein, the new poll finds favorable ratings of the Democratic Party have
declined sharply since spring. Just 49% now say they have a favorable
view of the Democratic Party. This compares with a 59% favorable rating
for the party as recently as April and 62% shortly before Obama took
office in January. Opinion of the Republican Party, which stands at
40%, has not changed all year."
Posted Aug 20, 2009 at 1:37 AM by Maurice Berger
At a recent statistical convention, the polling director of SurveyUSA, Jay Leve--one of the most accurate pollsters in recent cycles--had some shocking news for his peers: traditional polling methodologies, as we know them, may soon be doomed. Specifically, he was referring to the standard methodology of reaching potential voters--through landlines (and more recently, cell phones). Concluding his presentation, reports the National Journal Online, Leve summed up the problem: All phone polling, he said, depends on a set of assumptions: "You're at home; you have a [home] phone; your phone
has a hard-coded area code and exchange which means I know where you
are; ... you're waiting for your phone to ring; when it rings you'll
answer it; it's OK for me to interrupt you; you're happy to talk to me;
whatever you're doing is less important than talking to me; and I won't
take no for an answer -- I'm going to keep calling back until you talk
Yet, as it now stands, the current reality for pollsters is often much different:
"In fact, you don't have a home phone; your number can
ring anywhere in the world; you're not waiting for your phone to ring;
nobody calls you on the phone anyway they text you or IM you; when your
phone rings you don't answer it -- your time is precious, you have
competing interests, you resent calls from strangers, you're on one or
more do-not-call lists, and 20 minutes [the length of many pollsters'
interviews] is an eternity." Leve then concluded: "If you
look at where we are here in 2009 [with phone polling]," he said, "it's
over... this is the end. Something else has got to come along."
Posted Aug 19, 2009 at 12:48 AM by Maurice Berger
In an alarming sign for a the new administration, Barack Obama's PollTrack approval rating average has dropped to a new low. As of Monday evening, the President's approval rating hovers around the 50% mark--51.2% to 43% disapproval.
Posted Aug 17, 2009 at 2:19 PM by Maurice Berger
The popularity of former Alaska Governor and Republic VP candidate Sarah Palin has taken a hit in recent months, according to a new CNN/Opinion Research poll: "Americans appear to be souring on Sarah Palin, according to a new national poll. Thirty-nine percent of people questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research
Corporation survey released Wednesday have a favorable opinion of the
former Alaska governor and last year's Republican vice presidential
nominee. That's down seven points from a poll conducted in May, and
it's also nine points lower than the 48 percent who now say they now
view Palin unfavorably. Forty-three percent viewed Palin negatively in
Posted Aug 17, 2009 at 2:03 AM by Maurice Berger
In another sign that economic conditions may be improving in the United States, the Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures the economic confidence of
consumers on a daily basis, reached its high for the year last Thursday. By Sunday, the Index was exactly where it was a week
ago and is up eleven points from one month ago. Consumer confidence is now up +19
points from the beginning of 2009.
Posted Aug 14, 2009 at 2:35 AM by Maurice Berger
The question of Obama's American birth may not be a fringe issue after all. A public Policy Polling survey of voters in North Carolina finds that "only 54% of North Carolina voters say with certainty that they believe Barack Obama was born in the United States, with 26% saying they think he was not, and 20% unsure. Among Republicans, 47% think Obama was not born in the United States, with 29% unsure, and just 24% stating that they think he was." The polling director concludes that so-called "Birthers" "may be a fringe movement, but at least in the south it's a pretty large fringe."
Posted Aug 13, 2009 at 2:23 AM by Maurice Berger
In a warning sign for the Obama administration, the president's standing among independent voters are slipped considerably. According to a new Marist poll: "While the Obama Administration is embroiled in a bitter battle to get a
health care plan pushed through Congress, President Barack Obama is
faring well, overall, in the eyes of a majority of voters. However,
the president’s job performance may have lost a bit of its luster for
members of one key voting group for the first time since taking office. 55% of U.S. registered voters approve of the job President Barack
Obama is doing in office while 35% say they disapprove. The president
has held his own in the court of public opinion during the last few
months. . . . But, is President Obama on a slippery slope with Independent
voters? Currently, 47% of Independents nationwide say they approve of
the job the president is doing while 37% disapprove. This is the first
time Obama has lost a majority of Independents since taking office."
Posted Aug 12, 2009 at 1:21 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a recently released Gallup poll, the nation appears to be less welcoming to immigrants: "With some U.S. lawmakers and immigration rights activists stepping up
calls for the Obama administration to pursue immigration reform, Gallup
finds Americans less favorable toward immigration than they were a year
ago. Half (50%) say immigration should be decreased, up from 39% last
year. A third (32%) say immigration levels should be kept the same,
down from 39%, and 14% say they should be increased, down from 18%." In an anylisis of these results, Gallupwrites: These numbers "mark a return to the attitudes that prevailed in the first few
years after 9/11; attitudes softened from 2006 to last year.
The shift toward a tougher stance this time around may reflect the
country's economic situation, as Americans tend to become less
pro-immigration during difficult economic times."
Posted Aug 11, 2009 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger
A fascinating state-by-state study by Gallup suggests that American is growing increasingly Democratic: "An analysis of Gallup Poll Daily tracking data from the first six
months of 2009 finds Massachusetts to be the most Democratic state in
the nation, along with the District of Columbia. Utah and Wyoming are
the most Republican states, as they were in 2008. Only four states show
a sizeable Republican advantage in party identification, the same
number as in 2008. That compares to 29 states plus the District of
Columbia with sizeable Democratic advantages, also unchanged from last
year." Here's Gallup's listing of the Bluest and Reddest states in the union:
Posted Aug 10, 2009 at 3:22 AM by Maurice Berger
In yet another sign that the American public is sensensing an upturn in the economy--after more than two and a half years of recession--the Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures the economic
confidence of consumers on a daily basis, climbed five points on Sunday,
reaching its highest level since the Lehman Brothers collapse in September 2008.
At 78.8, the Index is up five points over the past week, up 18 points over the
past month and up 19 points from the beginning of this year." Still, the picture is not entirely rosy: "Nationally, 12% of adults rate the economy as good or
excellent, while 51% rate the economy as poor. Men (19%) and women (17%) under
40 are slightly more optimistic about the current state of the U.S. economy than
men (8%) and women over 40 (6%)."
Posted Aug 07, 2009 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger
By an enormous margin, the American public trusts President Obama FAR more than Republicans on the issue of who better can handle revamping health care: a NYT/CBS News poll reports that by a 55% to 26% margin, Obama has better ideas on health care than Republicans. A GWU Battleground survey released late last week found Obama with a 21 point lead over Republicans on who would better handle health care reform. PollTrack suggests that with approval numbers this high on the issue, Obama still holds a big political advantage over Republican legislators heading into September's Congressional battle over the issue.
Posted Aug 06, 2009 at 2:10 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Rasmussen survey, "76% of U.S. voters now think President Obama is at least somewhat liberal. 48% say he is very liberal . . This marks the highest
finding to date on the question and is a five-point increase in the number who
say the president is very liberal from a month ago.
Posted Aug 05, 2009 at 1:15 AM by Maurice Berger
Despite the efforts of the so-called "birther" movement, which questions President Obama's American birth (a requisite for assuming the presidency), the vast majority of Americans believe he was born in the United States. According to a Daily Kos/Research 2000 survey, more than two-thirds of adults reject these "birther" conspiracy claims. Here's the overall result:
Do you believe that President Barack Obama was born in the USA or not:
Not sure 12
Here is the break down by political part affiliation and region:
Yes No Not sure
Dem 93 4 3
Rep 42 28 30
Ind 83 8 9
N-East 93 4 3
South 47 23 30
Midwest 90 6 4
West 87 7 6
Posted Aug 04, 2009 at 1:54 AM by Maurice Berger
Republican Sarah Palin of Alaska--once one of the nation's most popular Governors, with approval rating hovering at 80%--is left office this past week on a sour note with voters. More voters in the state now view her negatively, according to a new survey by Hays Research. As it now stands, 47.5% of Alaska voters have an unfavorable view of Palin while 46.8% are favorable.
Posted Aug 03, 2009 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger
The past week has been much better for President Obama politically than the week before. And tracking polls over the latter part of last week confirm this: By Friday afternoon, the president's approval rating ticked up to 54.1% (to 39% disapproval), a leap of more than two-points from earlier in the week. More mportant tracking polls taken exclusively in the latter part of the week show even greater improvement, with some, such as Gallup, indicating a positive rating as high as 55%. Stay tuned.