Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Americans More Confident In War On Terror

Posted Feb 26, 2010 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Rasmussen survey, "voter confidence in America's conduct of the War on Terror has reached its highest level since last May. The survey finds that 50% of likely voters now believe the United States and its allies are winning the War on Terror, up 12 points from last month and 14 points from late-December.  Only 21% now believe the terrorists hold the advantage, down 10 points from January and the lowest level measured since last August. Another 21% say neither side is winning, a figure that has held relatively steady over the past several years. Democrats are slightly more confident in U.S. efforts in the war, with 54% who believe the United States and its allies are winning. A month ago, just 41% of Democrats felt that way. Forty-eight percent (48%) of Republicans and 46% of those not affiliated with either party agree."

American Skeptical About Healthcare Plan, Oppose Reconciliation

Posted Feb 25, 2010 at 1:22 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup survey, "Americans are skeptical that lawmakers will agree on a new healthcare bill at Thursday's bipartisan healthcare summit in Washington, D.C. If an agreement is not reached, Americans by a 49% to 42% margin oppose rather than favor Congress passing a healthcare bill similar to the one proposed by President Obama and Democrats in the House and Senate. By a larger 52% to 39% margin, Americans also oppose the Democrats in the Senate using a reconciliation procedure to avoid a possible Republican filibuster and pass a bill by a simple majority vote."

Americans By Wide Margin Think US Government Is Broken

Posted Feb 24, 2010 at 1:20 AM by Maurice Berger

In an astonishing result, a new CNN/Opinion Research poll.
reports that "Americans overwhelmingly think that the government in this country is broken." 86% say that our system of government is broken, with 14% saying no. One note of optimism: of the 86%, 81% say that the government can be fixed, with only a scant 5% saying it's beyond repair.

Democrats Loosing Young Voters

Posted Feb 23, 2010 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger

In what is surely a troubling sign for Democrats, the party appears to be loosing young voters--a key component of President Obama's margin of victory in 2008: "The "Millennial Generation" of young voters played a big role in the resurgence of the Democratic Party in the 2006 and 2008 elections, but their attachment to the Democratic Party weakened markedly over the course of 2009. The Democratic advantage over the Republicans in party affiliation among young voters, including those who "lean" to a party, reached a whopping 62% to 30% margin in 2008. But by the end of 2009 this 32-point margin had shrunk to just 14 points: 54% Democrat, 40% Republican." Still, as the survey reports, "While the Republican Party picked up support from Millennials during 2009, this age group continues to favor the Democratic Party more than do other generations. And the underlying political values of this new generation continue to be significantly more liberal than those of other generations on many measures.

Obama Disaaproval Up This Week

Posted Feb 22, 2010 at 1:40 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's overall approval/disapproval rating declined this week, his disapproval number rising considerably from last week. His aggregate approval rating now stands at 47.5%. His disapproval number is now at 47.3%, almost equal to his positive number.

New Poll Shows Surprising Strength For Tea Party Movement

Posted Feb 19, 2010 at 4:31 AM by Maurice Berger

A new CNN/Opinion Research poll reports suprising strength for the Tea Party movement: "The poll indicates that about 24 percent of the public generally favors the Tea Party movement but has not taken any actions such as donating money or attending a rally. Adding in the 11 percent who say they are active, a total of 35 percent could be described as Tea Party supporters. That larger group is also predominantly male, higher-income, and conservative. Some 45 percent of all Americans say they don't know enough about the Tea Party to have a view of the movement; one in five say they oppose the Tea Party. According to the survey, most Tea Party activists describe themselves as Independents."

By Wide Margin, Americans Want Repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"

Posted Feb 18, 2010 at 1:26 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner reports that by a substantial margin--54% to 35%--voters overwhelmingly support repealing the military's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy. GQR writes:
"Unlike so many other issues in the country right now, this issue simply does not polarize voters. Even among Republicans, repeal finds support with four in ten voters."

CNN/Opinion Research Poll: Majority of Americans Say President Does Not Deserve Reelection

Posted Feb 17, 2010 at 2:12 AM by Maurice Berger

In numbers that cannot be reassurinf to President Obama, 52% of Americans in a CNN/Opinion Research poll released Tuesday said that he does not deserve reelection in 2012. "44% of all Americans said they would vote to reelect the president in two and a half years, less than the slight majority who said they would prefer to elect someone else. Obama faces a 44-52 deficit among both all Americans and registered voters . . . . Four percent had no opinion."

President Obama 's Approval Rating Stabilizes

Posted Feb 16, 2010 at 2:27 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval rating stabilized this week, improving considerably from last week. His aggregate approval rating now stands at 48.7%. His disapproval number has dropped considerably, as well, and now stands at 44%.

US Senate 2010 Analysis All Week

Posted Feb 09, 2010 at 2:30 AM by Maurice Berger

Through next Monday, the presidential blog will tale a breather as PollTrack devotes is coverage to the analysis of competitive 2010 US Senate races. We'll be posting up at least two posts per day in the WRITING ON THE WALL blog tracking these races.

President Obama's Approval Drops Sharply

Posted Feb 07, 2010 at 5:09 PM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval rating has taken a serious dive this week, suggesting that his modest State of the Union bounce was very short lived. His aggregate approval rating nows stands at 46.3%. Even more alarming for the president is the sharp rise of his disapproval number, now at an all-time high of 49%.

Public Unaware Of Health Care Details

Posted Feb 05, 2010 at 5:47 AM by Maurice Berger

The public often forms opinion based on the overall contours of an issue--rather than inside-the beltway details--an observation that seems particularly true of its reaction to health care reform. A Pew Research poll reveals that just 32% of Americans know the health care reform bill received no support from Republican Senators; just 26% know that 60 votes are needed to break a filibuster in the Senate. And, as other polls have confirmed, even fewer understand the basic provisions of a bill that is both cumbersome and has remained mostly unexplained to the American public.

Conservatives Outnumber Liberals In Every State, Except DC

Posted Feb 04, 2010 at 2:08 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Gallup survey reports that "three U.S. states in the Deep South -- Alabama (49%), Mississippi (48%), and Louisiana (48%) -- had the greatest percentage of residents self-identifying as conservatives in 2009. Aside from the District of Columbia, which has the greatest proportion of liberals, conservatives outnumbered liberals in every state." For more, click here. Here's Gallup's chart of the most "Liberal"/ "Conservative" states:

Top 10 Conservative States Top 10 Liberal States

Gallup: Obama Back Up to 50% Approval

Posted Feb 03, 2010 at 1:41 AM by Maurice Berger

A week of relatively positive press following the President's State of the union address has helped his approval rating, according to Gallup: "President Barack Obama's job approval rating has jumped up to 51% in the most recent three-day Gallup Daily tracking. This follows 11 straight days of Gallup reporting in which Obama's approval rating was below the 50% mark. Here is Gallup's chart posted on Monday:

President Obama Job Approval -- Gallup Daily Tracking for January 2010

How Many Watched State of the Union?

Posted Feb 02, 2010 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Nielsen Wire, President Obama's first State of the Union address was viewed by more than 48 million viewers -- down 7% from President Bush's first official address in 2002.

President's Approval Up

Posted Feb 01, 2010 at 1:11 AM by Maurice Berger

The President Obama's State of the Union address appears to have given him a slight lift in approval numbers this week: His approval number has risen this week, according to PollTrack's weekly average. As of Sunday evening, his rating is as follows: APPROVE: 49.0%. Also of note: the president's disapproval has now fallen below his approval number to 47.8%. It will be interesting to see if the increase in approval will be sustained over the next few weeks.