Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Election 2012: New Poll Shows Obama Tied With Republican Challenger

Posted Mar 31, 2010 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

Far ahead of the game--and at a point where little predictive information can be gained--a new CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that if the 2012 presidential election were held today, President Obama would garner 47% of registered voters; an unnamed Republican challenger would poll an equal amount of voters.

Democrats Are Fired Up Again

Posted Mar 30, 2010 at 12:55 AM by Maurice Berger

One great advantage for the Democrats in President Obama's congressional victory on health care: the party faithful are once again fired up: a new Washington Post/ABC News poll reports that 76% of registered Democrats are enthusiastic to vote this November, compared to 75% of registered Republicans are enthusiastic.The enthusiasm gap between the two parties has effectively evaporated.

Obama Approval: A Slight Bounce For Health Care Victory

Posted Mar 29, 2010 at 12:58 AM by Maurice Berger

It does not appear that President Obama has received more than a slight improvement in his approval numbers, a week after in historic victory in congress. Last Sunday, Obama's three-day rolling average reported a 46% approval and 48% disapproval rating. As of this Sunday evening, the numbers are reversed 48.0% approve to 46.5% disapprove--an aggregate +3.5% improvement in his overall performance numbers. The two daily tracking polls--Rasmussen and Gallup--show no movement at all (with a slight decline in the latter survey). The president's numbers in the coming weeks will give us a clearer picture of the effect, if any, of his historic victory on his approval rating.

Election 2012: New Poll Shows Romney Leading Republican Pack

Posted Mar 25, 2010 at 1:50 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney is leading the 2012 presidential Republican nomination race with 28% support, followed by Mike Huckabee at 24% and Sarah Palin at 23% and Ron Paul at 11%. These numbers suggests not only a close race, but a decidedly undecided Republican party, split between the more mainstream conservatism of Romney, cultural conservatism of Huckabee, and Tea Bag conservatism of Palin.

Does Pessimism About Economy Spell Trouble For Democrats In November?

Posted Mar 24, 2010 at 1:06 AM by Maurice Berger

While the passage of heath care legislation has buoyed the Democratic Party, the poor state of the economy may continue to spell trouble for Democrats come November. A new Bloomberg Poll reports that Americans by a significant margin believe the economy has worsened during the past year: "A sense of despair pervades perceptions of the economy and nation. Barely one-in-three Americans say the country is on the right track. Fewer than one in 10 say they believe the economy will be strong again within a year. Just 4 percent of Americans who cut back on spending during the recession now say they are confident enough to open their wallets, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points."

Poor economic outlook is often the most important factor in determining the political health of the party in power and of incumbents in general. Will the economy improve enough to help the Democrats in the mid-term election or will voters turn to an alternative. Conversely, does the relatively depressed standing of the Republican Party--a recent poll shows a significant decline in GOP support among independent voters--help the Democrats hold on to both houses.

Public Does Not Understand Provisions Of Healthcare Bill

Posted Mar 23, 2010 at 12:59 AM by Maurice Berger

A new  Kaiser Health Tracking Poll, suggests that Americans do not fully understand the provisions and details of the health care legislation just passed by congress. For example: "Only 15% of Americans, for instance, know that the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has said the legislation will decrease the federal budget deficit over the next 10 years. And 55% believe the CBO has said the legislation will increase the deficit over that period." 

President Obama's Approval/Disapproval Tied

Posted Mar 22, 2010 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger

As of Sunday evening, President Obama's approval and disapproval numbers are tied--at 47%--according to PollTrack's weekly average.

Gallup: President Obama's Disapproval Higher Than Approval Rating

Posted Mar 19, 2010 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger

For the first time, Gallup reports that President Obama's disapproval rating is higher than his approval number. As of Thursday afternoon, Obama's three-day rolling average was 46% approve, 48% disapprove of his job performance as president.

Congressional Generic Ballot Evenly Split

Posted Mar 18, 2010 at 12:56 AM by Maurice Berger

Two new polls suggest that if the November election were held today, the generic vote for congress would be evenly split: Public Policy Polling survey finds a slim Republican advantage, 46% to 43%; the latest WSJ/NBC News poll shows Democrats with a three point lead, 46% to 43%; Gallup reports a similar advantage,  47% to 44%. PollTrack's average shows the Democrats with a tiny +1% lead, 45.3% to 44.3%.

Americans Ambivalent About Daylight Savings Time

Posted Mar 17, 2010 at 1:45 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Rasmussen Reports, "47% of Americans don’t think the time change is worth the hassle. 40% disagree, and 13% more aren’t sure . . . Men tend more than than women to think advancing the clock an hour to guarantee more sunlight in the afternoon and evening is worth the trouble. Adults 40 to 64 are more likely to feel the change is worth the hassle than those in other age groups."

Gallup: Americans Say Unemployment Top U.S. Problem

Posted Mar 16, 2010 at 1:08 AM by Maurice Berger

According a new Gallup survey, "Americans mention unemployment or jobs (31%) more than any other issue when asked to name the most important problem facing the country today. Americans predict the federal budget deficit will be the top problem the U.S. will face 25 years from now, just ahead of the economy and the environment." As for the present top problems, "31% of Americans mention jobs or unemployment, significantly more than say the economy in general (24%), healthcare (20%), or dissatisfaction with government (10%)."

President Obama's Approval Holding Steady

Posted Mar 15, 2010 at 2:23 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval rating has stabilized this week. His aggregate approval rating now stands at 48.6%. His disapproval number, however, continues to remain fairly high at 47.6%.

Does The Government Spend Enough On Education?

Posted Mar 12, 2010 at 1:13 AM by Maurice Berger

Does the U.S. Government spend enough on education? A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 67% of Democrats and 55% of voters not affiliated with either party say the government does not spend enough, a view shared by just 42% of Republicans . . . Just 20% think the government spends too much on public education, while another 21% say the amount it spends is about right. While government leaders attempt to tackle budget deficits that are ballooning to historic proportions, 55% of Americans say the government does not spend enough money on public education."


Seven in Ten Americans Happy With Their Job

Posted Mar 11, 2010 at 12:45 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite high unemployment and a depressed economy, seven out of ten employed Americans say that "their jobs are ideal, leaving nearly one-third of the U.S. workforce who feel their jobs aren't exactly right for them." According to a recent Gallup survey, "While majorities of respondents at all income levels report that their jobs are ideal, the percentage saying so increases with income. Americans with annual household incomes of at least $120,000 per year are the most likely to say their jobs are ideal (77%), while those making less than $12,000 per year are the least likely (57%)."

Young Republicans More Enthusiastic About Midterm Elections

Posted Mar 10, 2010 at 12:13 AM by Maurice Berger

In an ominous sign for Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections, A Harvard Institute of Politics survey of 18 to 29 year-old voters, reports that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting and participating Democrats, with 41% of Republicans planning on voting, compared to 35% of Democrats and 13% of Independents.

Americans Remain More Confident in Obama Than Congress on Healthcare

Posted Mar 09, 2010 at 1:07 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Gallup survey reveals that "Americans remain more confident in the healthcare reform recommendations of President Obama (49%) than in the recommendations of the Democratic (37%) or Republican (32%) leaders in Congress. But these confidence levels are lower than those measured in June, suggesting that the ongoing healthcare reform debate has taken a toll on the credibility of the politicians involved."

President Obama's Approval Up Slightly

Posted Mar 08, 2010 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval rating stabilized this week, improving considerably from last week. His aggregate approval rating now stands at 49.3%. His disapproval number remains fairly high, however, and now stands at 47.3%.

Americans Not Optimistic About Future Of U.S. Military

Posted Mar 05, 2010 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger

In a result that suggests that Americans are not optimistic about the future of the U.S. military, a recent Gallup survey reports that while 64% of Americans believe the U.S. is the No. 1 military power in the world today, far fewer--a staggering 36%--believe that the U.S. will be No. 1 militarily in 20 years. Nevertheless, "most Americans believe the U.S. will continue to have combat troops regularly involved in fighting around the world over the next two decades."

Democrats More Confident About Economy Than Republicans Or Independents

Posted Mar 04, 2010 at 1:38 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup survey, "Democrats were less negative than either independents or Republicans about the economy in February, as has been the case since shortly after President Barack Obama took office in early 2009. Democrats' -10 reading on Gallup's Economic Confidence Index in February compares to -34 among independents and -44 among Republicans . . . Americans' views of the economy clearly reflect their political orientation and can vary sharply, depending on which party controls the White House. Republicans are most positive when there is a Republican president. Democrats are the most positive when the president is a Democrat."

Americans Spending Less To Cope With Recession

Posted Mar 03, 2010 at 1:46 AM by Maurice Berger

In order to cope with the fall-out of the Great Recession, Gallup reports in a new survey, "nearly 6 in 10 Americans (57%) now say they are spending less money than they used to, and 38% say this reduced spending will be their new, normal spending pattern. In a marked shift from earlier this decade, 62% of Americans now say they more enjoy saving rather than spending, while 35% say the reverse."

Obama Falling Behind in Purple States

Posted Mar 02, 2010 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger

In a series sign of weakness for the Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections, Tom Jensen reports that President Obama at present "has a negative approval rating in every state he flipped from the Bush column to his in 2008. In each of those places his level of support is now in the 44-46% range. It's probably a good thing he doesn't have to run for reelection this year. He can only hope things start turning around for him once the midterms are in the rear view mirror, much as they did for Bill Clinton."

President Obama's Approval Rating Falls, Disapproval Up

Posted Mar 01, 2010 at 1:10 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval rating dropped noticeably this week. His aggregate approval rating now stands at 46.6%. Even more alarming for the president is the sharp rise of his disapproval number, now higher than his approval score at 48%.