Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Do American Want President Reagan On Their Currency?

Posted Apr 30, 2010 at 12:40 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite his continued popularity with Americans, Ronald Reagan does not warrant depiction on American currency according to a new poll. As congress moves to consider replacing the portrait of President Ulysses S. Grant on the fifty dollar bill with that of former President Reagan, a new Marist Poll reports that an overwhelming 79% of Americans think it's a bad idea; just 12% say it's a good one and 9% are unsure.  

Most Americans See GOP AS The Party Of No

Posted Apr 29, 2010 at 12:53 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Economist poll reports that just 24% of Americans think Republicans "mostly provide constructive policy alternatives"; 52% say they "mostly just oppose the other party." These numbers could prove a considerable stumbling block to Republican hopes to take back one or both houses of congress this fall.

GOP Narrows Gap With Democrats In Party Affiliation

Posted Apr 28, 2010 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

A recently released Gallup poll reports that Democrats now have the smallest advantage in political party affiliation in five years. During the first quarter of 2010, 46% of Americans identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, while 45% identified as or leaned Republican.

Administration Victories Not Translating Into Improvement in Presidential Approval

Posted Apr 27, 2010 at 1:26 AM by Maurice Berger

Oddly, a string of political victories for the President--from dramatic passage of the health care bill to improvement in many economic indicators--is not translating into improved approval numbers for Obama. A new Citizen Opinion/Democracy Corps poll, for example, reports "a significant drop in the proportion thinking the country is off on the wrong track and a rise in the number who think the economy is improving." Yet, this positive assessment is  "not producing a change in political thinking. The Republican 7-point advantage on the economy is unchanged this month. There is no growth in people believing Obama's economic policies have produced a better economy." Indeed, the President's aggregate approval number has never been lower. This pattern is somewhat unusual, given the public's tendency to translate an improving economy into increased support for the administration in power. Stay tuned.


Obama Disapproval Higher Than Approval

Posted Apr 26, 2010 at 12:56 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's weekly average indicates that President Obama's approval number have fallen BELOW his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is 47.3%; his approval number is 46.3%, a slight decline from last week.

PPP: Republicans Maintain Lead in Congressional Generic Ballot

Posted Apr 23, 2010 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that Republicans continue to lead Democrats in the generic congressional ballot, 47% to 42%. The survey analysis finds that "92% of Republicans are committed to supporting their party this fall while just 86% of Democrats are," a modest enthusiasm gap that could hurt Democrats come November.

Americans Confident in President Obama's Supreme Court Choice

Posted Apr 22, 2010 at 12:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Quinnipiac poll reports that 53% of American voters are "very confident" or "somewhat confident" that President Obama  will make the right decision in nominating a U.S. Supreme Court justice; 46% percent are "not too confident" or "not confident at all."

Cook Report: Republicans Poised To Take Back Many Seats In The House

Posted Apr 21, 2010 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger

In a new and complex report, one of the nation's most experienced analysts suggests that the Democrats may be in trouble in this falls mid-term elections. The Cook Political Report now  projects that come November, the Republicans are poised to gain 30 to 40 seats in the House of Representatives. The GOP needs 40 seats to take control. "If the trend over the past  seven months continues," writes Cook, "the GOP will do even better."

Obama In Tenuous Position For 2012

Posted Apr 20, 2010 at 12:40 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that President Obama is virtually tied with all four of the leading candidates for the Republican nomination. The poll's results: Obama trails Mike Huckabee 47% to 45% and Mitt Romney 45% to 44%. He is tied with Newt Gingrich, at 45%. He leads one candidate by a slim margin: Sarah Palin, at 47% to 45%. PPP's analysis suggests that the President is at his weakest point in "13 monthly surveys and a pretty clear indication that passing health care has not done anything to enhance his political standing, at least in the short term."

Obama Approval Levels Off To Tie

Posted Apr 19, 2010 at 12:58 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's weekly average indicates that President Obama's approval numbers have leveled off to a tie. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number equals his approval--both now stand at 48.6%, a slight improvement from last week.

Democratic Party Favorability Drops To New Low

Posted Apr 16, 2010 at 1:11 AM by Maurice Berger

According to  new Gallup Poll, the Democratic party's favorable rating has dropped to 41%, the lowest point in the 18-year history of this measure. The Republican party's favorable rating is now at 42%. As recently as last summer, the Democratic advantage over  Republicans was a significant +11%. Now, that advantage has completely evaporated. According to Gallup, "Americans' current 41% favorable rating of the Democratic Party is five points lower than the party's previous low, recorded twice in 2005."

Voters Rate Economy As Top Issue

Posted Apr 15, 2010 at 1:48 AM by Maurice Berger

In a not unsurprising result, a new Gallup survey reports that 57% of registered voters expect the issue of the economy to be extremely important to their vote for Congress this year, making it the top issue in the 2010 elections. Other problems, of lesser importance:  health care, unemployment, and the federal budget deficit. The least important of the seven issues ranked in the poll: the environment

Palin Favorability Remains Low

Posted Apr 14, 2010 at 12:55 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a CBS News Poll, "former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin continues to receive unfavorable ratings from the American public overall . . . though many Republicans do hold a favorable opinion of her. But even as the former GOP vice presidential candidate continues to build up her persona as a media personality and conservative spokesperson, nearly 4 in 10 self-identified conservatives say they do not have an opinion of her or know too little about her to have an opinion. 24% of Americans have a favorable opinion of Sarah Palin, while 38% view her unfavorably   . . . 37% of the public is undecided or hasn't heard enough to offer an opinion. Her ratings have held fairly steady over the past year. Only 7% of Democrats say they have a favorable view of Palin and 59% have a negative view. By contrast, 43% of Republicans have a positive view of Palin and 16% have a negative view."

Nate Silver: Democrats Could Loose 50 Seats

Posted Apr 13, 2010 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger

Nate Silver speculates that Republican advantage now registered by a number of surveys in the generic congressional ballot could result in the Democrats loosing a significant number of House seats this November: "Although analysts debate the precise magnitude of the difference, on average the generic ballot has overestimated the Democrats' performance in the popular vote by 3.4 points since 1992. If the pattern holds, that means that a 2.3-point deficit in generic ballot polls would translate to a 5.7 point deficit in the popular vote -- which works out to a loss of 51 seats, according to our regression model." Still, as PollTrack notes, it's to early to tell if these numbers will hold up. Even Silver hedges his bet: "If Democrats were to lose 50, 60, 70 or even more House seats, it would not totally shock me. Nor would it shock me if they merely lost 15, or 20. But their downside case could be very far down."

Further Decline In Obama Approval

Posted Apr 12, 2010 at 2:12 AM by Maurice Berger

With the modest health care bounce in President Obama's approval numbers gone, PollTrack's weekly average indicates a downward trend in his approval numbers. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is higher than his approval. His approval now stands at 46.1%; his disapproval, at 47.3%. The most recent polls actually indicate a more precipitous drop, with the President's approval number -3.4% lower than his approval number. Stay tuned. 

Congressional Generic Ballot Tied

Posted Apr 09, 2010 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

Gallup Daily tracking for the week ending April 4 finds the two major parties tied at 46% in the congressional voting preferences of registered voters nationally. In the two weeks since Congress passed health care reform on March 21, Democrats have tied or trailed the Republicans, after having at least a slight advantage in the weeks prior. Here is Gallup's chart:

March-April 2010 Trend: Candidate Preference
 in 2010 Congressional Elections, Among Registered Voters

Americans Very Dissatisfied With Congress

Posted Apr 08, 2010 at 12:52 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Gallup Poll reports that a record-low number of American voters--28%--say most members of Congress deserve to be re-elected. The previous low was 29% in October 1992: "The same poll finds 49% of voters, a near-record low, saying their own member of Congress deserves to be re-elected. This marks only the second time since Gallup began asking this question in 1992 that the figure has dipped below 50%, and the first on the doorstep of a midterm election."

Americans Loosing Faith With Politicians

Posted Apr 07, 2010 at 12:23 AM by Maurice Berger

A USA Today/Gallup poll reports that Americans are loosing faith with politicians--attitudes "are reminiscent of those in 1994 and 2006, when control of Congress switched from one party to the other." 28% pf respondents say most members of Congress deserve re-election , a record low. Both major parties have exceptionally low favorability ratings: 41% for Democrats and 42% for Republicans. The President is not exempt from this negativity: 26% saying he deserves "a great deal" of blame for the nation's economic troubles, double the percentage in July.

Is Congress In Trouble With Voters?

Posted Apr 06, 2010 at 1:15 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Marist Poll, 45% of registered voters nationwide remain unsatisfied with their elected officials in the U.S. Congress and would vote against them in November; 41% would vote for the incumbent, and 14% are unsure.

Obama Approval: The Health Care Bounce Is Gone

Posted Apr 05, 2010 at 2:17 AM by Maurice Berger

Last week it appeared that President Obama received a slight bounce in his approval numbers, a week after in historic victory in congress. As of Sunday evening, it looks like the bounce is gone. The president's aggregate approval stands at 47.0%; his disapproval, almost equal at 46.6%. A new CBS News Poll actually shows the president sinking to an all time low approval rating of 44%,

Americans Prefer 5-Day Postal Deliver To Increase in Fees Or PO Closings

Posted Apr 02, 2010 at 1:11 AM by Maurice Berger

Gallup reports: as the U.S. Postal Service officially takes steps toward a reduced, five-day delivery schedule to help solve its financial problems, Gallup finds that 68% of Americans favor such a move -- easily more than would like to see government funding for the postal service, higher stamp prices, or the closing of their local post office branches." One interesting note reported by Gallup: "Americans may not object to reduced mail delivery in part because they are more likely to send e-mails than letters in the mail (67% vs. 53%) -- although they are still more likely to pay bills by mail than online (66% vs. 47%)."


Palin Divides American

Posted Apr 01, 2010 at 1:56 AM by Maurice Berger

Sarah Palin remains a polarizing figure in American politics, according to a new Washington Post poll. She's remains popular with those respondents who view the Tea Party movement favorably--with a 60% favorable rating--as well as conservative Republicans, garnering a whopping 71% positive rating. At the other end of the spectrum, 85% of liberal DEmocrats have an unfavorable view of the former Alaska Governor and 2008 Vice-Presidential candidate. Overall, 55% of Americans say they view Palin unfavorably.