Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Afghanistan: Americans Largely Support Obama Timetable

Posted Jun 30, 2010 at 12:57 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by Gallup, "Americans largely support President Obama's timetable for withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan beginning in July 2011, with 58% in favor and 38% opposed. Most who are opposed think no timetable should be set rather than favoring an earlier or later date."

Gallup: Public Disapproval Of Congress At Near Low

Posted Jun 29, 2010 at 12:46 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup a mere 20% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, a near record low. Gallup's analysis does not bode well for the party now in power: "This year's low approval ratings for Congress are a potentially ominous sign for President Obama and the Democratic majority in Congress. Gallup has found greater party seat change in Congress in midterm elections when Congress has had low approval ratings. Specifically, in the five midterm elections in which Congress' approval ratings at the time of the election were below 40%, there was an average net change in seats of 29 from the president's party to the opposition."

Presidential Disapproval Higher Than Approval

Posted Jun 28, 2010 at 12:04 AM by Maurice Berger

For the second straight week, President Obama's approval continues to trend lower than his disapproval rating according to PollTrack's weekly aggregate. His average approval number, as of Sunday evening, is 46.2%; his disapproval number is 47.4%. Once gain this week, the most recent daily tracking polling shows his approval number migrating slightly downward, but with his aggregate disapproval number creeping downward, as well.

Voters Angry At The Media

Posted Jun 25, 2010 at 12:51 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Rasmussen Reports survey, "66% of U.S. voters describe themselves as at least somewhat angry at the media, including 33% who are Very Angry . . . 31% say they are not angry at the media, but that includes just nine percent (9%) who say they are not at all angry. It's important to note, however, that the question did not in any way define media or differentiate between media outlets such as CNN and Fox News."

 

Gallup: Voters Devided On Obama Reelection

Posted Jun 23, 2010 at 1:12 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup survey, American "registered voters remain split on whether President Obama deserves to be re-elected in 2012, with 46% saying he does and 51% saying he does not -- little changed from earlier this year." Here is their chart:

Does President Obama Deserve to Be 
Re-Elected, or Not? Among Registered Voters

Gallup continues: "The most recent Obama re-elect measure is similar to the president's basic job approval rating among all Americans, which was 48% in Gallup Daily tracking [in mid-June] . . . Obama received 53% of the popular vote in his 2008 victory over Republican John McCain. The current re-elect data suggest that -- depending on the Republican nominee -- the 2012 presidential election could be quite competitive were it held today."

Presidential Race 2012: Romney Most Popular GOP Candidate In Iowa

Posted Jun 22, 2010 at 1:26 AM by Maurice Berger

Who is the most popular candidate among Iowa Republicans for the 2012 presidential race? A recent Iowa Poll reports that 62% of Republicans are very or mostly favorable toward Mitt Romney; 58% like Sarah Palin; and 56% are favorable to Newt Gingrich. PollTrack suggests not reading much into this very early sampling of GOP sentiment. Much can change over the next years and a half.

President Obama's Approval Continues to Trend Downward

Posted Jun 21, 2010 at 1:48 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval continues to trend lower than his disapproval rating according to PollTrack's weekly aggregate. His average approval number, as of Sunday evening, is 47.0%; his disapproval number is 49.0%. Once gain this week, the most recent daily tracking polling shows his approval number migrating downward (with disapproval as much as 15% higher than approval).

Democrats Lead In The Congressional Generic Ballot?

Posted Jun 18, 2010 at 1:01 AM by Maurice Berger

With polls contradicting each other daily, it's hard to know who is really ahead in the congressional generic ballot. Today's survey, out from AP-GFK reports a healthy +7% point lead for the the Democrats, 46%-39%. The same poll reports that the Democrats  they also lead Republicans 47%-42% on "who Americans trust more to guide the economy." But there is also a caveat for Democrats: "There's plenty in the poll to encourage Republicans, and nothing that contradicts many analysts' views that the GOP has a solid shot of capturing majorities of one or both chambers of Congress. The public's anti-Washington mood remains robust, with 55% saying they want a new member of Congress — bad news for Democrats with more incumbents to defend. A low 24% approve of how Congress is doing its job, a hefty 72% still say the nation's economy is in poor condition, and 77% consider huge federal budget deficits a top concern."

Majority of Americans Support Supreme Court Nominee

Posted Jun 17, 2010 at 1:31 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a Washington Post/ABC News poll, 58% of Americans--a solid majority--support Elena Kagan's nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. Writes the Washington Post: Kagan's support is "in line with previous successful nominees the past two decades."

GOP Ahead In Congressional Generic Ballot?

Posted Jun 16, 2010 at 1:08 AM by Maurice Berger

It looks like yesterday's PPP survey showing the Democrats leading the congressional generic ballot may be an outlier. All other recent polls show a GOP advantage. The latest Gallup Poll, for example, reports that Republicans now hold +5% lead in the generic ballot, 49% to 44%. A new poll of the battleground congressional districts, conducted by NPR by Democratic polling firm GQR and Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, "finds reason for deep concern among Democrats. The poll . . . tested the 60 most competitive Democratic districts and shows an increasingly difficult environment for candidates of the majority party.

"The results are a wake-up call for Democrats whose losses in the House could well exceed 30 seats," GQR notes in its findings. In the Democratic districts, several findings were most disconcerting for the party: just 34% said they would vote to re-elect their representative, whom the questioner named; in a separate question, 56% said they will not vote to re-elect their representative because new people are needed to fix Washington; and when both the Democratic and Republican candidates were named, 47% said they'd vote for the Republican and 42% chose the Democrat. Also tested were the 10 most competitive Republican districts, where 53% say they'll vote for the GOP candidate and 37% for the Democrat."

New Poll Shows Democrats Leading Congressional Generic Ballot

Posted Jun 15, 2010 at 1:10 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that Democrats are now leading in the generic congressional ballot. Although the margin is small--43% to 41%--this survey marks the first time since December that PPP shows an advantage for the Democrats.

Obama Approval Lower Than Disaaproval Rating

Posted Jun 14, 2010 at 2:05 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval rating is now slightly lower than his disapproval rating according to PollTrack's weekly aggregate. His average approval number, as of Sunday evening, is 47.3%; his disapproval number is 47.8%. Once gain this week, the most recent daily tracking polling shows his approval trending downward (with disapproval from 3% to 7% higher than approval).

Americans Turning Against Offshore Drilling

Posted Jun 10, 2010 at 2:27 AM by Maurice Berger

After years of generally supporting offshore drilling, Americans are now starting to turn against it. A CBS News Poll reports that many are reconsidering their view of offshore drilling, as the BP fiasco rapidly pollutes the Gulf of Mexico.  51% of Americans now believe increased offshore drilling is "too risky"; 40% remain in favor. Just two years ago, 62% of Americans favored it, while just 28% opposed it. In April 2010, a mere month ago, 41% believed offshore drilling was too risky and a plurality--46%--were in favor. What a difference a month can make.

Obama In Trouble With Washington Insiders Over Oil Spill?

Posted Jun 09, 2010 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Political Insiders Poll reports that among political/Washington insiders, President Obama is fairing poorly in his response to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill: Democrats give him an average grade of C-; Republicans an average grade of D-. The problem may extend well beyond the political class to the electorate at large, as a number of polls measuring the president approval rating this week have shown a discernible decline this week.

Check Out PollTrack's Predictions For Today's Primary Races in Writing On The Wall (at Left)

Posted Jun 08, 2010 at 1:13 AM by Maurice Berger

For up to the minute predictions on today's numerous primary races for governor and U.S. Senate, check out WRITING ON THE WALL.

Check Out PollTrack's Predictions For Today's Primary Races in Writing On The Wall (at Left)

Posted Jun 08, 2010 at 1:13 AM by Maurice Berger

For up to the minute predictions on today's numerous primary races for governor and U.S. Senate, check out WRITING ON THE WALL.

Presidential Approval/Disapproval Now Tied

Posted Jun 07, 2010 at 1:26 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's aggregate approval number is now exactly equal to his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is 46.8%; his approval number is 46.8%. The weeks ahead may prove difficult politically for the president: the most recent polling shows his approval trending downward (with disapproval now higher than approval).

AZ Immigration Law Popular

Posted Jun 03, 2010 at 1:08 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Quinnipiac University poll reports that American voters--by a 48% to 35% margin--would like to see their state  pass an immigration law similar to Arizona's: "The strong plurality who says they would like a similar law in their own state probably portends the law will be an issue in many, many campaigns this November across the country. Depending on how those elections and court challenges come out, copy cat Arizona laws could be a hot issue in state capitals after November."

Democrats In Trouble In 2010 Mideterms?

Posted Jun 02, 2010 at 1:04 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey suggests serious trouble ahead for Democrats in this November's midterm elections: The latest Gallup poll reports that Republicans now lead Democrats in the generic congressional ballot by six points, 49% to 43%. Gallup goes on to note that this is the largest GOP lead in the survey since it began in 1950.

President Obama's Approval And Disappoval Numbers Nearly Tied

Posted Jun 01, 2010 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval number is nearly equal to his disapproval number, an increase of support over the past two weeks. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is 46.3%; his approval number is 46.8%, a virtual tie.