Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

First Lady Tops List Of Most Favorably Viewed Public Figures

Posted Jul 29, 2010 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup survey, first lady Michelle Obama's "favorability rating among Americans tops that of several major political players who have called or might someday seek to call the White House home." Here is Gallup's chart:

2010 Favorability Ratings

President's Support Among Hispanics Remains High

Posted Jul 28, 2010 at 1:33 AM by Maurice Berger

A new AP/Univision poll reports that President Obama's stadning among Hispanics remains high, with 57% approving of his job performance. By contrast, his aggregate approval rating among all Americans, according to PollTrack's latest numbers, hovers at around 44%.

Which States Are Most Democratic or Republican?

Posted Jul 27, 2010 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "more states are politically competitive this year than was the case in 2009, as fewer Americans nationwide identify with the Democratic Party. Vermont -- along with the District of Columbia -- is the most Democratic state in the U.S. in 2010 so far, while Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho are the most Republican." Here is Gallup's chart of the most Democratic and Republican states in the union:

Top 10 Democratic States, January-June 2010 Top 10 Republican States, January-June 2010

Presidential Approval At New Low, Disapproval at New High

Posted Jul 26, 2010 at 12:52 AM by Maurice Berger

Last week's stabilization of President Obama's approval rating may have been the calm before a brewing storm for the Democratic administration. This week's numbers tell a different story, as Obama's aggregate approval number drops to a precipitous new low, and his disapproval number creeps up to a new high. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating stands at 44.5%. His disapproval is way up at 50.3%.

Quinnipiac: Presidential Approval Drops To New Low

Posted Jul 22, 2010 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Yet another poll has recorded a record low approval rating for the president: a just released Quinnipiac poll reports that President Obama's job approval rating has dipped to 44%, his lowest rating to date in the survey. By a slight 39% to 36% margin, voters say that they would vote for an unnamed Republican rather than reelect Obama in 2012. And by a 48% to 40% margin, respondents say that the president does not deserve reelection in 2012.

Majority Of Americans Incorrectly Assign Bank Bailout To President Obama

Posted Jul 21, 2010 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Pew Research poll suggests that the American public remains substantially unaware that the federal government's bank bailout program was actually signed into law by President Bush. 47% incorrectly believe it was enacted during the Obama's administration; just 34% of Americans answered the question correctly. 

Poll: Americans Continue To Blame Former President Bush For Nation's Ills

Posted Jul 20, 2010 at 2:10 AM by Maurice Berger

In what may be a note of good news for Democrats facing anti-incumbent sentiment in this year's election, a Bloomberg National Poll reports that Americans blame former President George W. Bush more than President Obama for the budget deficit, unemployment and illegal immigration. Bush doesn't do much better when the question turns for foreign policy: 60% say Bush is primarily responsible for the current situation in Afghanistan, for example. Only 10% name Obama.

President Obama's Approval Rating Improves

Posted Jul 19, 2010 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger

This week's aggregate approval rating for President Obama  shows a higher approval over disapproval number. PollTrack's weekly average reports the President's approval number is up from last week at 47.6%. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is 46.6%, a slight improvement from his recent numbers.

Presidential Approval At New Low

Posted Jul 15, 2010 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger

According to several polls, President Obama is passing through a rough patch vis-a-vis public opinion about his performance in office. Public Policy Polling survey reports that President Obama's approval rating has dropped to a new low: Now, 45% of voters approve of the job he's doing; 52% disapprove. PPP continues: "The two most troublesome things for Obama in his numbers at this point are his standing among white voters and independents. Whites now disapprove of Obama by nearly a 2:1 margin, with 62% giving him bad marks and only 35% saying he's doing a good job. With independents his approval is just 40% and 56% disapprove of his performance." Another poll by Bloomberg reports that Americans disapprove of President Obama's handling "of almost every major issue and are deeply pessimistic about the nation's direction, offering a bullish environment for Republicans in the November congressional elections . . . . A majority or plurality disapproves of Obama's management of the economy, health care, the budget deficit, the overhaul of financial market regulations and the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, almost 6 in 10 respondents say the war in Afghanistan is a lost cause."

Americans Continue To Be Divided on Health Care Law

Posted Jul 14, 2010 at 1:49 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new National Journal/Pew Research poll, 47% of Americans continue to disapprove of the health care law; 35% approve; and 17% had no opinion. The poll also found sharp partisan divisions in the perception of the law: "82% of Republicans disapprove, while only 17% of Democrats disapprove. Independents track closer to the overall sample: 52% disapproved of the law, while 30% approve."

Republicans Lead Congressional Generic Ballot

Posted Jul 13, 2010 at 12:41 AM by Maurice Berger

A Democracy Corps survey is the latest to show Republicans leading Democrats in congressional races by six points, 48% to 42%. The poll--in line with most other gauges of party strength in the upcoming congressional elections--suggests a wide enough margin to be of real concern to Democrats.

Presidential Disapproval Still Higher Than Approval Rating

Posted Jul 12, 2010 at 1:17 AM by Maurice Berger

For the fourth consecutive week, President Obama's approval remains lower than his disapproval rating according to PollTrack's weekly aggregate. His average approval number, as of Sunday evening, is now somewhat improved at 47.5%; still, his disapproval number higher, at 48.5%.

Wide Enthusiasm Gap Between Parties

Posted Jul 09, 2010 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger

In another bit of troubling news for the Democrats, a new Pew Research poll reports that Republicans "are much more engaged in the coming election and more inclined to say they are certain to vote than are Democrats. This could translate into a sizable turnout advantage for the GOP in November that could transform an even race among registered voters into a solid victory for the Republicans. . . . Fully 56% of Republican voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than in previous elections -- the highest percentage of GOP voters expressing increased enthusiasm about voting in midterms dating back to 1994." That year, of course, marked enormous gains by Republican candidates for Congress.

President Obama Behind With Independents

Posted Jul 08, 2010 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger

In another ominous sign for the President and Democrats in general in this midterm election year, the latest Gallup tracking poll finds President Obama's approval rating is just 38% among independents. This marks  the first time approval of Obama among independents has dropped below 40%. A year ago, his standing among these voters was 56%, +18% higher than today's numbers. 

Charlie Cook On Midterms: There Is A Wave Out There

Posted Jul 07, 2010 at 12:37 AM by Maurice Berger

Charlie Cook's latest reading on election 2010 sets an ominous tone for Democrats: "There is a wave out there, and for Democrats, the House is, at best, teetering on the edge . . . To be sure, things could change in the four months between now and November 2. The GOP's failure to get Republicans to vote in the May 18 special election in Pennsylvania's 12th District underscores that the party can't just sit back and await spontaneous combustion in terms of turnout. Still, the potential is here for a result that is proportional to some of the bigger postwar midterm wave elections. These kinds of waves are often ragged; almost always some candidates who looked dead somehow survive and others who were deemed safe get sucked down in the undertow. That's the nature of these beasts. But the recent numbers confirm that trends first spotted late last summer have fully developed into at least a Category 3 or 4 hurricane."

Presidential Disapproval Remains Higher Than Approval Rating

Posted Jul 05, 2010 at 4:44 PM by Maurice Berger

For the third consecutive week, President Obama's approval remains lower than his disapproval rating according to PollTrack's weekly aggregate. His average approval number, as of Sunday evening, is 46.3%; his disapproval number is 48.6%.

Americans Warming To Healthcare Reform

Posted Jul 01, 2010 at 1:01 AM by Maurice Berger

An in depth survey from the Kaiser Family Foundation suggests that Americans are becoming increasingly supportive of the new health care reform law. This month, the number of respondents approving of the legislation is actually higher than disapproving:  48% support the law, while 41% had an unfavorable opinion. Just a month ago, the levels of support were reversed, with 41% approving and 44% against.