Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Gallup: GOP With Unprecedented Lead In Generic Ballot

Posted Aug 31, 2010 at 2:15 AM by Maurice Berger

A just published Gallup tracking poll has alarming news for Democrats running in the mid-term election: the GOP now holds an unprecedented lead in the generic congressional ballot. The survey reports that Republicans lead by 10 points in the generic congressional ballot among registered voters, 51% to 41%. This is the biggest GOP lead so far this year and its largest in Gallup's history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.

Presidential Approval Numbers Improve Slightly, Though Disapproval Still High

Posted Aug 30, 2010 at 2:22 AM by Maurice Berger

Continued slight improvement for the President this week, though, for the fifth straight week, his aggregate approval number remains considerably lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating is up to the mid-40s range, at 46.0% (a slight decline from last week). His disapproval number is 48.2% (a slight decline from last week).

Most Americans Believe Iraq War Will Be Judged A Failure

Posted Aug 26, 2010 at 2:02 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup survey, "although Americans believe Iraq is better off now than it was before the war began, more believe the mission will ultimately be judged a failure (53%) than a success (42%). Most are doubtful that Iraqi forces will be able to maintain security in Iraq, but a slim majority still favor complete U.S. withdrawal by the end of 2011."

U.S. Economic Confidence Down

Posted Aug 25, 2010 at 1:01 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "after improving slightly earlier this month, Gallup's Economic Confidence Index declined over the past two weeks to its current -33, matching the average for all of July. The July confidence numbers are the lowest of the year so far; thus, even with the slight uptick in early August, confidence remains below the levels seen during much of 2010 and below its depressed levels of a year ago. 48% of Americans rated current economic conditions as 'poor' during the week ending Aug. 22 -- approaching the highest levels of the year. This is marginally worse than the early August reading, is in line with the full July average of 47%, and is marginally worse than at this time in 2009."

PollTrack Average: Republicans Hold Significant Lead In Generic Congressional Ballot

Posted Aug 24, 2010 at 2:18 AM by Maurice Berger

According to PollTrack's latest calculation, the GOP holds a significant lead over Democrats in the Generic Congressional Ballot. As of Sunday evening, that lead is a considerable +7.2%, 47.5 to 40.3%. These numbers represent one of the largest leads held by either party in recent years.

Presidential Approval Numbers Improve Slightly, Though Disapproval Still High

Posted Aug 23, 2010 at 1:13 AM by Maurice Berger

A slight improvement for the President this week. Still, for the fifth straight week, his aggregate approval number remains considerably lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating is up to the mid-40s range, at 46.5% (a two-point improvement from last week). His disapproval number is 49.8% (a full point decline from last week).

2010 GOP Nomination: Does Romney Lead The Pack?

Posted Aug 20, 2010 at 12:53 AM by Maurice Berger

A new CNN poll reports that Mitt Romney leads the field of potential 2012 Republican presidential candidates with 21%, followed by Sarah Palin at 18%, Newt Gingrich at 15%, Mike Huckabee at 14% and Ron Paul at 10%. Another poll, however, from Public Policy Polling survey shows the candidates essentially tied: Huckabee at 23%, Romney at 22%, Palin at 21% and Gingrich at 21%.

Support For Palin Among GOP Declines

Posted Aug 19, 2010 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger

A newly released survey from the Clarus Research Group of GOP voters reports that support for Sarah Palin for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination has fallen considerably since March, declining from 18% to 12%. Clarus reports: "Palin gets more attention from the national media than presidential support from Republicans. The major change since March is that Gingrich has now edged out Palin for third place, even though the two are running well within the statistical margin of error."

Generic Congressional Ballot: Polls Show Historic GOP Advantage

Posted Aug 18, 2010 at 1:20 AM by Maurice Berger

Rasmussen reports a big lead for the GOP in the generic congressional ballot: "Republican candidates have jumped out to a record-setting 12-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, August 15, 2010. This is the biggest lead the GOP has held in over a decade of Rasmussen Reports surveying." And "the latest Gallup generic ballot test shows the Republicans leading the Democrats by the largest spread in the history of the generic ballot. Republicans lead by seven points -- 50 percent to 43 percent. This also appears to be the first time Republicans have ever hit 50 percent in the history of the Gallup generic ballot."

Gallup: Presidential Approval At All-Time Low

Posted Aug 17, 2010 at 1:31 AM by Maurice Berger

Gallup's presidential approval tracking poll over the past few days has registered the lowest number yet for President Obama. As of Monday afternoon, Obama's approval number had dropped to the low-40s to 42% (with disapproval up to 50%, an all time high).

 

UPDATE: As of Tuesday afternoon, Obama's disapproval number ticked up a point to 51.0%. His approval number remains at 42%.

Apologies For Weekend Outage . . . .

Posted Aug 16, 2010 at 5:53 AM by Maurice Berger

Apologies to those of you trying to access the site over the weekend. We experienced an outage due to factors beyond our control. We are now up and running . . . with new posts and updates throughout the week.

See Below For Our weekly Presidential Approval Rating Analysis

Presidential Approval Considerably Below Disapproval Number

Posted Aug 16, 2010 at 5:23 AM by Maurice Berger

For the forth straight week, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains considerably lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating stands at 44.4% (a slight drop from last week). His disapproval number is 50.8% (almost a full point increase from last week).

Who Works For The US Government And Where?

Posted Aug 12, 2010 at 1:37 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Gallup survey reports that 17% of U.S. "workers say they work for federal, state, or local government, ranging from 38% in Washington, D.C., to 12% in Ohio. More than a quarter of workers in Washington, D.C., Alaska, Virginia, and Maryland work for government, as do upwards of 15% in the vast majority of states." Here is Gallup's chart:

States With Highest Perecentages of Government Workers, January-June 2010 States With Lowest Perecentages of Government Workers, January-June 2010

Consumer Confidence Falls To New Low

Posted Aug 11, 2010 at 1:54 AM by Maurice Berger

Further trouble for the Obama administration in the upcoming midterm election: Rasmussen reports that "following release of Friday's government report on unemployment and job creation, consumer and investor confidence has fallen to the lowest level of 2010. Just 21% of Adults nationwide now believe the economy is getting better. That's down from 30% on Friday morning. The number who believe the economy is getting worse is now up to 54%."

 

More Than A Quarter of Americans Still Question President's U.S. Birth

Posted Aug 10, 2010 at 12:43 AM by Maurice Berger

A new CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that 11% of Americans believe that President Obama was definitely not born in the United States; another 16% say that the president was probably not born in the country--a combined 27% of respondents who continue to question the president's birthplace.

Presidential Disapproval Remains Higher Than Approval Number

Posted Aug 09, 2010 at 1:54 AM by Maurice Berger

For the third straight week, President Obama's aggregate approval number has stalled, and his disapproval number considerably higher. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating stands at 44.8%. His disapproval number is 50.0%.

Americans Warming To Health Care Law

Posted Aug 06, 2010 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Kaiser tracking poll reports that opposition to the health care legislation signed into law by President Obama in March has declined over the past month, from 41% to 35%; 50% held a positive view of the law, up from 48% a month ago, and the highest level of support since the legislation was enacted.

Cook Report: Where The Midterms Stand

Posted Aug 05, 2010 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger

The latest Cook Political Report forecast predicts a 32 to 42 seat net gain for Republicans in the House of Representatives. In order to take over the House, the GOP needs to net 39 seats to reach a bare majority of 218 seats. In the Senate, Cook's forcast bodes better for the Democrats, with a predicted a 5 to 7 seat net gain for Republicans, not enough to take control of the chamber.

Gallup: GOP Now Back In Lead of Generic Ballot

Posted Aug 04, 2010 at 1:31 AM by Maurice Berger

The newest Gallup survey of national political sentiment adds fuel to the speculation that a an earlier survey by the organization indicating a Democratic lead in the generic congressional ballot--and outlier relative to most other polls--may indeed represent a statistical blip. According to Gallup, Republicans have taken back the lead and are now ahead by +5%, 48% to 43%.
Gallup writes: "While the five-percentage-point edge for Republicans is not statistically significant, it represents a return to the prevailing 2010 pattern, seen since mid-March, whereby Republicans were tied or held a slight advantage over Democrats in most Gallup Daily tracking weekly averages. If sustained through Election Day, this competitive positioning for the Republicans among registered voters would point to major seat gains for that party in November given the usual Republican advantage in turnout."

Midterm Election 2010: Are Democrats Gaining Ground?

Posted Aug 03, 2010 at 1:08 AM by Maurice Berger

Are Democrats regaining ground in the 2010 mid-term election? One polling organization, Gallup, has reported for tor two straight weeks, that Democrats now maintain a lead in the generic congressional ballot. Does this suggest a trend. Veteran political analyst Charlie Cook suggests that it is too early to tell: "One interpretation of recent results is that the momentum in this critical midterm election has shifted and the Republican wave has subsided. Another interpretation is that it's too soon to tell whether much has changed at all." It is also inportant to add that Gallup's findings are not matched by some other polls: A new Fox News poll, for example, reports a +11% for Republicans in the generic congressional ballot,  47% to 36%. Two weeks ago the Republicans had a +4% advantage.

Presidential Disapproval Considerably Higher Than Approval Number

Posted Aug 02, 2010 at 2:16 AM by Maurice Berger

For the second straight week, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains at a precipitous new low, and his disapproval number is way up, at a new high. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating stands at 44.7%. His disapproval number is 50.0%.