Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

DAILY 2010 MIDTERM ELECTION UPDATES

Posted Sep 28, 2010 at 3:30 PM by Maurice Berger

Until Election Day, PollTrack will place special emphasis on tracking the 2010 midterm election. Posts to the Presidential blog will be sporadic in order to concentrate on continual polling analysis of hundreds of gubernatorial, U. S. Senate and U.S. House races in our Writing on the Wall blog (on the top left of our homepage).

Presidential Aggregate Disapproval Number At Record High

Posted Sep 27, 2010 at 2:09 AM by Maurice Berger

For more than two months straight, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating remains stable at 45.0% (a modest decline from last week). His disapproval number, however, is now at a record high in PollTrack's weekly analysis: 51.3%.

Independent Voters Are As Angry As Republicans

Posted Sep 24, 2010 at 1:20 AM by Maurice Berger

In what may be another problem for Democrats, a new Associated Press-GfK Poll reports that 58% of independents and 60% of Republicans said "politics is making them angry," compared with 31% of Democrats. The GOP tilt of independent voters in recent surveys--and the anger that appears to drive the enthusiasm gap between Democrats and others--may give a solid competitive edge to the GOP in its effort to get out the vote in November.

Americans Think They Are Better Informed Than A Decade Ago

Posted Sep 23, 2010 at 12:45 AM by Maurice Berger

Does widespread Internet access lead to a better informed public. A new Rasmussen survey suggests that answer is yes: "While newspapers and broadcast outlets struggle to survive in the Internet age, two-out-of-three Americans (67%) feel they are more informed today than they were 10 years ago . . . just eight percent (8%) consider themselves less informed these days, while 22% think their level of knowledge is about the same."

 

Hypothetical 2012 Race: Obama, Generic Republican Tied

Posted Sep 22, 2010 at 2:00 AM by Maurice Berger

Assessing the president's reelection chances in 2012, a new Public Policy Polling survey reports that Obama is tied at 47% with a generic Republican challenger. PPP writes: "The takeaway from this poll is about the same as every month -- Obama's pretty weak but his likely opposition is pretty darn weak too."

Majority of Americans Support Gay Marriage

Posted Sep 21, 2010 at 1:07 AM by Maurice Berger

Is the tide turning in the United States on gay marriage? A just released AP-GfK Poll reports that 52% of Americans support the rights of same-sex couples to marry. A recent Gallup poll also found majority support for gay marriage.

Presidential Disapproval Number Remains High

Posted Sep 20, 2010 at 2:15 AM by Maurice Berger

For two months straight, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating stands at 45.2% (a modest increase from last week). His disapproval number is 50.6% (a +1.0% increase from last week).

Americans Favor Administration View On Tax Cuts

Posted Sep 17, 2010 at 2:16 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Democracy Corps survey reports that by a 55% to 38% margin, Americans favor the view espoused by the Obama administration and Democrats in the debate on extending the Bush tax cuts for everyone earning less than $250,000 but letting them lapse for the wealthiest Americans.

Americans See The Republican Party As Leaderless

Posted Sep 16, 2010 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger

What could become a problem for the GOP, a Pew Research survey reports that 54% of Americans do not know who leads the Republican party and 18% volunteer that "nobody" leads the party. In this context, can the GOP produce enough of a coherent national message to win big in November or might Democratic loses be moderated by this public's confusion?

Tea Party Remains on the Fringe

Posted Sep 15, 2010 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Quinnipiac poll reports that the Tea Party remains popular with only a small sector of Americans; now, only 12% of voters consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement. Earlier surveys have shown support as high as 14%, still minor support. 30% of voters hold a favorable opinion of the Tea Party; 31%, unfavorable.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Another Poll Shows GOP Advantage

Posted Sep 14, 2010 at 1:54 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Gallup tracking poll reports that the GOP leads the generic congressional ballot among registered voters by +5%, 48% to 43%. One finding that may be particularly troubling to Democrats, though with a possible hopeful sign: "Republicans show substantially more enthusiasm than Democrats about voting in this year's midterm elections, as they have all year. The gap was slightly smaller in the most recent week -- 18 points, versus at least 23 points in the prior three weeks -- owing to increased enthusiasm among Democrats."

Presidential Approval Numbers Still Lower Than Disapproval

Posted Sep 13, 2010 at 12:39 AM by Maurice Berger

For the seventh straight week, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains considerably lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating stands at 44.6% (a slight decline from last week). His disapproval number is 49.6% (a slight decline from last week).

Quinnipiac: Republicans Hold Edge On Generic Congressional Ballot

Posted Sep 10, 2010 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Quinnipiac poll reports that the Republican Party continues to lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot, 42% to 37% margin. The same poll reports that President Obama continues to receive a negative 44% to 47% approval rating, statistically unchanged from his record-low two weeks ago.

VOICES ON THE GROUND: Campaign Commercials 2010

Posted Sep 09, 2010 at 6:48 AM by Maurice Berger

Check into VOICES ON THE GROUND (located bottom left of the homepage) for an ongoing, "on the ground" view of campaign 2010--a steady stream of statewide and local campaign commercials across the nation.

Vote In November May Be More Anti-Democrat Than Pro-GOP

Posted Sep 09, 2010 at 1:27 AM by Maurice Berger

A USA/Today Gallup poll reports that the Republican lead in the congressional generic ballot may have less to do with positive feelings towards the GOP and more with voters rejecting the Democrats. According to the survey, among voters supporting unnamed Republican candidates, "44% say it's more a vote against the Democratic candidate . . . while 48% say it's more a vote for the Republican candidate."

Cook Report: GOP Could Take The U.S. Senate

Posted Sep 08, 2010 at 1:24 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Charlie Cook, in an analysis that PollTrack believes is valid, suggests that Republicans could also take control of the U.S. Senate in the upcoming midterm elections: "For much of this year, it seemed a near mathematical impossibility that Republicans could score the 10-seat net gain needed to flip the Senate, which is split between 59 Democrats (including two independents who caucus with Democrats and largely vote with the party) and 41 Republicans. As recently as six weeks ago, I wrote in a CongressDailyAM column that a GOP win was 'certainly possible' but 'still fairly unlikely.' Although the 'fairly unlikely' part is still valid, the possibility of a GOP takeover is growing."

Presidential Approval Takes A Dip, with Disapproval Up to 51%

Posted Sep 07, 2010 at 1:24 AM by Maurice Berger

The summer has not been good to the Obama administration. While the president's numbers showed slight improvement last week, he is back down again, and, for the sixth straight week, his aggregate approval number remains considerably lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating is up to the mid-40s range, at 44.8% (a 2% decline from last week). His disapproval number is 51.0% (a 3% increase from last week).

Obama Job Approval Varies Among Religious Groups

Posted Sep 02, 2010 at 1:38 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup analysis, "Muslim Americans continue to give President Barack Obama the highest job approval rating of any major religious group in the U.S., while Mormons give the president the lowest ratings." Here is Gallup's chart:

Obama Job Approval by Religious Group, First Half and Second Half of 2009, and First Seven Months of 2010

Most See Palin As Ineffective President

Posted Sep 01, 2010 at 2:08 AM by Maurice Berger

Would Sarah Palin make a good president? Most Americans say no, according to a 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair poll. 59% of Americans said they don't think Sarah Palin would be an effective president of the United States. GOP voters have a different opinion, however: by a 47% to 40% margin, Republicans believe Palin would be an effective president.