Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

ELECTION NIGHT LIVE BLOGGING 2 November at 6:00 PM EST

Posted Oct 31, 2010 at 10:06 AM by Maurice Berger

Tune into PollTrack for live blogging on Election Night, 2 November at 6:00 EST. We'll have constant updates and polling analysis throughout the evening on key races in the U.S. House and Senate plus Governor's races.

Gallup: Presidential Approval Drops To New Low

Posted Oct 22, 2010 at 2:03 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, President Obama's approval rating averaged just 44.7% for the last quarter, a number that marks a new low since he took office in January 2009. Only 39% of Americans believe Obama deserves re-election in 2012; 54% believe he does not. Gallup notes, however, that both Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan "were in similar poor standing at this point in their presidencies, and both recovered in time to win second terms as president."

Presidential Approval Continues to Decline, Disapproval Up

Posted Oct 18, 2010 at 12:55 AM by Maurice Berger

Nearing the three month mark of continued deficits in public approval, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating has declined further from last week and is now at 44.8% (from 45.2% last week). His disapproval number, has increased slightly in PollTrack's weekly analysis to 50.4% (from 49.2% last week).

Gallup: GOP With Big Lead In Generic Congressional Ballot

Posted Oct 12, 2010 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger

The latest Gallup tracking poll for the generic congressional ballot reports a big GOP advantage: " Republicans maintain a substantial advantage over Democrats among likely voters in Gallup's generic ballot for Congress -- in both lower- and higher-turnout scenarios -- fueled in part by the GOP's strong showing among independents . . . Among voters Gallup estimates to be most likely to vote at this point under either a higher- or lower-turnout scenario, Republicans maintain substantial double-digit advantages. In Gallup's higher-turnout scenario, Republicans lead 53% to 41%. In Gallup's lower-turnout scenario, Republicans lead 56% to 39%" Gallup's reported GOP advantage, if it holds on Election Day, would most probably result in historic loses for the Democrats. Stay tuned. 

Presidential Approval Declines Slightly

Posted Oct 11, 2010 at 1:51 AM by Maurice Berger

For more than two months straight, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating shows a slight decline at 45.2% (from 46.0% last week). His disapproval number, has increased slightly in PollTrack's weekly analysis to 49.2% (from 48.4% last week).

Generic Congressional Ballot: Who's Ahead And By How Much

Posted Oct 06, 2010 at 12:59 AM by Maurice Berger

As per Real Clear Politics: "Probably the biggest polling news of the day was the Gallup generic ballot poll that showed Republicans leading Democrats 56 percent to 38 percent.  That 18-point lead is predicated upon a "low turnout" scenario, and would represent historic highs for the Republican Party -- it would probably represent the most seats won by either party since the early 70s.

Gallup also produced a model anticipating slightly higher turnout.  Under this model, the Republicans led by 13 points, which is still an historic result in the Gallup model.  Among registered voters, Republicans led by 3 points.

Rasmussen Reports, by contrast, saw the race tightening significantly, with Republicans leading Democrats by only three points, 45 percent to 42 percent.  This represented the closest ballot test in roughly a year.  Of course, the big difference between the two polls is the number of undecideds; it may well be that Democrats are truly stuck at around 40 percent, and undecideds are leaning heavily GOP."

Presidential Approval Rating Improves

Posted Oct 04, 2010 at 1:43 AM by Maurice Berger

For more than two months straight, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating shows improvement at 46.0% (a +1% increase from last week). His disapproval number, has also declined in PollTrack's weekly analysis: 48.4% (a significant -3.0% decrease). Statistical blip or are the Democrats coming back to their party and president. Stay tuned.

Majority of Americans Want Third Party

Posted Oct 01, 2010 at 1:37 AM by Maurice Berger

A Gallup survey reports that a strong majority of Americans--now at 58%--are dissatisfied with the two current party system and believe a third party is need to mke government more effective. Gallup writes: "Though the rise in support for a third party could be linked to the Tea Party movement, Tea Party supporters are just about average in terms of wanting to see a third party created. Sixty-two percent of those who describe themselves as Tea Party supporters would like a third major party formed, but so do 59% of those who are neutral toward the Tea Party movement. Tea Party opponents are somewhat less likely to see the need for a third party."