Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Rahm Emanuel Leads In Chicago Mayoral Race

Posted Nov 30, 2010 at 5:18 AM by Maurice Berger

How is Rahm Emanuel doing in his race for Mayor of Chicago? Will he return to elective office only months after leaving the White House? A new We Ask America poll suggests that Emanuel is in a good position. In the upcoming race for mayor--which is on February 22, 2011--he lead with 39%, followed by former Sen. Carol Mosely Braun at 12%, Gerry Chico at 9%. Rep. Danny Davis at 7% and 19% still undecided. Nevertheless, if no candidate receives at least 50% of the vote, a runoff will be held April 5.

President Obama's Aggregate Approval Number Falls Below 45%

Posted Nov 29, 2010 at 3:00 AM by Maurice Berger

For more than five months straight, President Obama's aggregate approval number continues to remain lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval has fallen below the 45% mark and is now at 44.6%. His disapproval is well over the 50% mark at 51.0%

Majority of American Voters Oppose War in Afghanistan

Posted Nov 24, 2010 at 1:18 AM by Maurice Berger

A Quinnipiac poll reports that a majority of American voters--by a margin of 50% to 44%--oppose the U.S. involvement in the war in Afghanistan by a margin. While Democrats opposed the war, 62% to 33%, Republicans support it, 64% to 31%. Independent voters are opposed to the war by a 54% to 40% margin.

Polls That Exclude Cell Phones Skew Republican

Posted Nov 23, 2010 at 1:08 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released survey by Pew Research Center suggests that polling organizations that exclude cell phones from their survey tend to produce results that skew sharply Republican: "The number of Americans who rely solely or mostly on a cell phone has been growing for several years, posing an increasing likelihood that public opinion polls conducted only by landline telephone will be biased. A new analysis of Pew Research Center pre-election surveys conducted this year finds that support for Republican candidates was significantly higher in samples based only on landlines than in dual frame samples that combined landline and cell phone interviews. The difference in the margin among likely voters this year is about twice as large as in 2008. Across three Pew Research polls conducted in fall 2010 -- conducted among 5,216 likely voters, including 1,712 interviewed on cell phones -- the GOP held a lead that was on average 5.1 percentage points larger in the landline sample than in the combined landline and cell phone sample. For Pew's more detailed analysis click here.

By Wide Margin, Voters Support Repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"

Posted Nov 22, 2010 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Quinnipiac national poll reports that voters overwhelmingly support the repeal of the military's "Don't ask, don't tell" policy by a wide margin, 58% to 34%. Voters with a military member of the military in their family are nearly as supportive of repeal, by a margin of 55% to 38%.

Redistricting 2012: A Look Ahead

Posted Nov 18, 2010 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger

Wondering how the congressional map will look in 2012 after the restricting of congressional districts that will begin next year? In his preview of the upcoming reapportionment of congressional districts, Sean Trende notes that the just concluded midterms, which saw a number of state houses turn towards the Republican, may indeed bode poorly for the Democrats: "As bad as 2010 was for House Democrats, 2012 could be even worse. Republicans don't have a lot of exposure, since most of their gains were in red territory. More importantly, Republicans will control more seats in redistricting than they have since the states began regular decennial redistricting in 1972."

Using census estimates of where population is growing and falling within states, Trende "offers his thoughts on how redistricting will most likely shape things in 2012." His analysis is fascinating and insightful--a window onto the upcoming reconfiguration of congressional districts. For more, click here. 


How Does President's Reelection Bid Stack Up Against Republicans

Posted Nov 17, 2010 at 1:12 AM by Maurice Berger

Where does President Obama stand in his reelection bid? How does he stack up against a generic Republican candidate. A new Politico poll reports that while Obama trailing a generic Republican opponent for reelection, 40% to 37%, he comes out at least 6% points ahead when matched up with likely Republican contenders Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee and Haley Barbour. Like GOP loses in US Senate races with unpopular incumbents--like Nevada and Colorado--Obama's ability to overtake specific GOP candidates suggests that the president's relative popularity will be no more important than the relative popularity of GOP candidates in determine who will come out ahead in 2012. Stay tuned.

Congressional Approval Down to 17%

Posted Nov 16, 2010 at 1:18 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Gallup Poll reports that Congressional has dropped to 17%, down slightly from 21% before the midterm elections.

Health Care Reform Doomed Democrats in Midterm Election

Posted Nov 15, 2010 at 1:14 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a study in The New Republic, health care reform doomed the Democratic Party in the midterm elections. The study found that of the 1/6th of voters who identified health care as their most important issue voted Republican over Democrat, 59% to 35%. The study continues: "Putting all these data together, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that the health-reform bill had an independent impact on Democrats in the midterm election, reducing their support below the level to which the economy alone would have depressed it. A back-of-the envelope calculation suggests that health care voters contributed about 10 percent points to the Republicans' share of the vote and only 6 percent to Democrats -- a gap of 4 percentage points."


Voters Access Lame Duck Seesion of Congress

Posted Nov 12, 2010 at 2:12 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Rasmussen survey, 'Most voters think Congress should wait until the new members take office in January before tackling any major new legislation, but even more expect Democrats to try to pass major legislation anyway in the upcoming lame-duck session." The survey finds that 36% of Likely U.S. Voters believe the current Congress should consider major new legislation during the lame-duck session scheduled to begin on Monday. . . .  Fifty-six percent (56%) say Congress should wait until the newly elected members take office after the first of the year. . . .  76% of voters think it is at least somewhat likely that House Democrats will try to pass major legislation before the newly elected members are sworn in. That includes 49% who say it is Very Likely. Just 18% think Democrats are unlikely to attempt to pass major legislation between now and the arrival of the new Congress"

Americans View of Potential 2010 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Nov 11, 2010 at 3:55 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Associated Press-GfK poll reports that Sarah Palin is the most divisive of the potential 2012 Republican presidential candidates; public perceptions of Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are more positive. 46% of Americans see Palin as favorable; 49% as unfavorable. Huckabee has the highest favorability rating at 49%; 27% view him unfavorably. Romney has a 46% favorabliy rating, while 31% view him unfavorably.

Election 2010: GOP Gains In State Legislatures Spell Trouble From Democrats

Posted Nov 09, 2010 at 2:07 AM by Maurice Berger

This Tuesday, the GOP score another, most unreported victory: at the state legislative level, the party elected a net gain of at least 680 seats to set a modern record.Come 2011, this may prove quite costly for the Democrats. Why? Because once census figures are crunched and adjusted it will be the responsibility of state legislatures--with input from Governors, another problem for Democrats can claim only 20 state houses, a net loss of at least 7 seats--to reapportion that state's congressional districts. With the power to shape--and manipulate districts--the GOP will have the edge in sculpting districts favorable to their party.

President's Approval Remains Below Disapproval Number

Posted Nov 08, 2010 at 2:15 AM by Maurice Berger

For more than three months straight, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating shows a slight decline at 46.5%. His disapproval number holds steady at 49.5%.

Next Week: Updates On Election 2010

Posted Nov 05, 2010 at 4:08 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack will take a break from regular reporting next week to prepare for our coverage of the 2012 Presidential cycle. But do check in next week: we will have additional analysis of the 2010 and late updates. Plus, we will resume our weekly assessment of President Obama's approval ratings.

Stay Tuned: 2012 Presidential Race Handicapping

Posted Nov 04, 2010 at 8:18 AM by Maurice Berger

In the coming weeks, PollTrack will introduce an innovative map devoted to tracking Election 2012, specifically the relative state of the incumbent Democratic president and a generic Republican challenger in their state-by-state hunt for electoral votes. Two years out, PollTrack will test the mood of all 50 states (and DC), gauging the mood of the country, its regions, and states as the current president nears his bid for reelection.

WRITING ON THE WALL will continue to report on statewide trends for local and national political figures, taking a look at upcoming local races in 2011, and their implications for the upcoming national cycle in 2012.

PRESIDENTIAL: In addition to our innovating tracking of the 2012 Election, the presidential page will continue to follow the relative popularity of the Obama administration as well as national trends for the Republican and Democratic Part as well as any independent parties.

VOICES ON THE GROUND: Will resume next year with reports from Americans on the ground--political and cultural figures and interested citizens, alike--reporting on local political and cultural trends leading up to the 2012 cycle, from the perspective that matters most: with voters on the ground.

So stay tuned to PollTrack.

Exit Poll in WV: Democrat In Lead For US Senate?

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 11:37 AM by Maurice Berger

Exit polls in West Virginia, which may or may not be accurate, suggest that Democratic Joe Manchin leads in his race for the U.S. Senate. If Manchin wins, as PollTrack has predicted, the road for a GOP Senate takeover just got steeper, much steeper. So this could be good news for the Democrats, re: Senate control.