Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Americans See U.S. as Exceptional; 37% Doubt Obama Does

Posted Dec 30, 2010 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger

Gallup reports that "Americans widely agree that the United States has a unique character because of its history and Constitution that sets it apart from other nations as the greatest in the world. This view, commonly referred to as "U.S. exceptionalism," is shared by at least 73% of Americans in all party groups, including 91% of Republicans. . . . On the whole, Americans, by 58% to 37%, believe Obama thinks the U.S. is exceptional, consistent with what he and his advisers maintain. But Americans are less likely to believe Obama holds this view than they are to think the same about Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush." For more on the survey click here.

Election 2012: President Obama Runs Strong With Democrats

Posted Dec 29, 2010 at 2:17 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released survey from CNN/Opinion Research reports that 78% of Democrats would like to see President Obama renominated for a second term. Hovering nearly 80%, this number the highest the President's support among Democrats support has been all year.

Majority Of Americans Continue To Oppose Healthcare Law

Posted Dec 28, 2010 at 1:41 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released survey by CNN/Opinion Research reports that 54% of Americans continue to oppose the new health care law; 43% support the law. 25% of say they oppose the new law because it is not liberal enough; 37% oppose it because it is too liberal.

Rahm Emanuel Holds Huge Lead in Chicago Mayor's Race

Posted Dec 27, 2010 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger

Is there a political life for Rahm Emanuel after leaving the White House? The answer would appear to be yes according to a new We Ask America poll shows him with a hefty lead over the rest of the field in the election to become the next mayor of Chicago. Emanuel leads with 44%, followed by Gery Chico at 12%, Carol Moseley Braun at 8%, Danny Davis at 7%, Miguel Del Valle at 6% and James Meeks at 4%.

With Lame Duck Session Over, Campaign 2012 Begins

Posted Dec 23, 2010 at 4:08 AM by Maurice Berger

We're on holiday until this coming Monday, 27 December 2011. Check in next week for new posts. And keep checking in to PollTrack in 2011 as our Election 2012 coverage begins 3 July 2011.

Happy holidays!

President's Obama's Support Among GOP Voters Improves

Posted Dec 23, 2010 at 2:18 AM by Maurice Berger

Acoording to a just released Gallup poll shows President Obama's approval rating--now overall at 46%--has improved among GOP voters: "Liberal Democrats' approval of Obama remained subdued, averaging 80% in the past week, similar to the 79% in the previous week and below the 88% found just prior to the midterm elections... In contrast, Obama's approval rating among moderate/liberal Republicans (including independents who lean Republican) has increased in December, rising from 20% to 29% in just the past two weeks. This is his highest level of support from moderate/liberal Republicans since May."

Obama Way Ahead In New Hampshire Primary 2012

Posted Dec 21, 2010 at 4:57 PM by Maurice Berger

Right now, president Obama would win the Democratic primary handily against hypothetical Democratic challengers. A according to a new Magellan Strategies poll in New Hampshire, the President Obama is well positioned in the unlikely event he's challenged in a Democratic presidential primary.  He beats Hillary Clinton by 31 points--59% to 28%, and bests Howard Dean by 68 points--78% to 10%.

GOP Advantage: States Slated To Gain or Loose US House Seats

Posted Dec 21, 2010 at 7:19 AM by Maurice Berger

Based on the 2010 census, which states are now slated to gain or loose U.S. House seats (and well as electoral votes, one per house seat lost). Next week, the Census Bureau will release its official state population totals and the allotment of House seats for the next decade. The Waal Street Journal reports that  "Republicans tightened their grip on the U.S. House with the release of new population figures that show GOP-leaning states in the South and Southwest will add congressional seats in the next election. . . . The big winner in 2012 and beyond is Texas, which will add four seats. Ohio and New York will each lose two seats. Elsewhere in the South, Florida will add two seats, and Georgia will add one . . .
The population count "confirmed long-held assumptions that the balance of power in the country is tilting away from Democratic strongholds in the Northeast and Midwest to warmer states in the Sunbelt, where Republicans hold sway."

Congressional Approval At Historic Low

Posted Dec 20, 2010 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Gallup poll reports that just 13% of Americans approve of the way Congress is handling its job. 83% disapprove -- the lowest level of support ever measured in the history of the survey.

Nation Overwhlemingly Favors Repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"

Posted Dec 16, 2010 at 1:55 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite the unwillingness of Senate Republicans to repeal "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"--and the President's longstanding reluctance to end the policy outright--A new Washington Post-ABC News poll reports that 77% of Americans favor allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military. The poll observes: "The support also cuts across partisan and ideological lines, with majorities of Democrats, Republicans, independents, liberals, conservatives and white evangelical Protestants in favor of homosexuals' serving openly."

Majority of American Voters Say They Are Worse Off

Posted Dec 15, 2010 at 12:35 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Bloomberg Poll , a majority of Americans--51%--say they are worse off now than they were two years ago when President Obama took office, compared with 35% who say they're doing better. Bloombeg writes: "Americans have grown more downbeat about the country's future in just the last couple of months, the poll shows. The pessimism cuts across political parties and age groups, and is common to both sexes. The negative sentiment may cast a pall over the holiday shopping season, according to the poll. A plurality of those surveyed -- 46 percent -- expects to spend less this year than last; only 12 percent anticipate spending more. Holiday sales rose by just under a half percent last year after falling by almost 4 percent in 2008." Just as problematic for the Obama Administration: Two thirds of voters now say the country is headed in the wrong direction.

Obama's Reelection: How Serious Is The Drop In Liberal and Democratic Support

Posted Dec 14, 2010 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger

An analysis of yesterday's polling from Marist University by Nate Silver suggests the erosion of support among Democrats and liberals could--the operative word is could--have an adverse effect on President's Obama's reelection chances. Silver observes: "A new poll from Marist University is suggestive of a potential worst-case scenario for President Obama. As he endures criticism from his left over his handling of the tax policy debate with Republicans, his approval rating has declined among liberals, according to the poll: 69% of them now approve of his job performance as compared with 78% in November. Likewise, his approval rating has declined among Democrats: to 74% from 83%. However, there has been no comparable improvement in Mr. Obama’s standing among independents. . . . " For the full analysis, click here.

McClathchy-Marist: President Obama's Approval Rathing Drops To New Low

Posted Dec 13, 2010 at 1:05 AM by Maurice Berger

The latest McClatchy-Marist poll finds an erosion of President Obama's Democratic political base, probably the result of his tax compromise with the GOP. The president's approval rating has dropped to a new low, according to the polll: 42%. More: "Obama's standing among Democrats dropped from a month ago, with his approval rating falling to 74% from 83%, and his disapproval rating almost doubling, from 11% to 21% . . . . His position among independents remained virtually the same, with 39 percent approving and 52% disapproving. A month ago, it was 38% to 54%."

Gallup: Americans Support Two Key Elements of Tax Compromise

Posted Dec 10, 2010 at 1:50 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup Poll, "two major elements included in the tax agreement reached Monday between President Barack Obama and Republican leaders in Congress meet with broad public support. Two-thirds of Americans (66%) favor extending the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for all Americans for two years, and an identical number support extending unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed." Here is Gallup's breaking along party lines:

Support for Extending Tax Cuts and Unemployment Benefits, Among National Adults and by Party, December 2010

In terms of opposition to parts of the bill, Gallup notes: "Looking more specifically at the different ideological wings of each party, only liberal Democrats oppose extending the tax breaks for everyone: 39% are in favor, while 55% are opposed. Among the other groups, support ranges from 64% of conservative/moderate Democrats to 87% of conservative Republicans. "Similarly, conservative Republicans are the only political/ideological group opposing the extension of unemployment benefits. The majority of moderate/liberal Republicans are in favor, as are most Democrats, regardless of ideology."

Americans See US Economy As Lagging Behind China

Posted Dec 09, 2010 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Allstate/National Journal poll finds that only 20% of Americans believe that the U.S. economy is the world's strongest; nearly half picked China instead. The poll reports: "Looking forward, Americans are somewhat more optimistic about regaining primacy, but still only about one in three expect the U.S. economy to be the world's strongest in 20 years. Nearly three-fifths of those surveyed said that increasing competition from lower-paid workers around the world will keep living standards for average Americans from growing as fast as they did in the past."

Obama's Core Supporters Oppose Tax Compromise

Posted Dec 08, 2010 at 12:50 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a just released SurveyUSA poll, voters who contributed to Barack Obama's 2008 presidential campaign are overmelingly opposed to his deal with Republicans to extend the Bush-era tax breaks for those making over $250,000 a year. 74% now say they do not support the deal. 51% say they are less likely to contribute to Obama's reelection campaign in 2012, and 57% say it makes them less likely to support congressional Democrats who support this deal in 2012.

Will The Unemployment Rate Doom Obama's Reelection?

Posted Dec 07, 2010 at 4:07 AM by Maurice Berger

This analysis from Jeff Madrick via Frank Rich via, in The New York Times, should make the Democrats worry, re: the President's reelection chances in 2012: "As the economics commentator Jeff Madrick wrote in The Huffington Post, the unemployment rate has been above 7 percent only four times in a presidential election year since World War II — and in three of the four the incumbent lost (Ford, Carter, the first Bush). Reagan did win in 1984 with an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent, but the rate was falling rapidly (from a high of 10.8 two years earlier) . . . But as Madrick adds, there has never been a sitting president over that period who has had to run with an unemployment rate as high as 8 percent — which is precisely where the Fed’s most recent forecasts predict the rate could be mired when Obama faces the voters again in 2012."

Americans Reject GOP Tax Plan

Posted Dec 06, 2010 at 2:22 AM by Maurice Berger

A new CBS News poll reports that a majority of Americans--53%--reject the GOP's efforts to extend Bush-era tax cuts to households earning more than $250,000 per year. Just 26% of Americans support extending the cuts for all Americans, even those earning above the $250,000 level.

Republicans Favor Racial Profiling At Airports

Posted Dec 03, 2010 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll reports that Republicans are the only partisan group that favors racial profiling at airports. Democrats and independents remain strongly opposed. 53% of Republicans say that race "should be included in a passenger's security profile." Just 39% of independents and 31% of Democrats agree.

California Continues To Trend Democratic

Posted Dec 02, 2010 at 1:18 AM by Maurice Berger

With its treasure trove of 55 winner take all Electoral Votes, California is important to President Obama's reelection prospects in 2012. A new analysis, suggests that the Democrats are well positioned in the state. A Los Angeles Times/USC poll reports that California voters, by a wide margin, are reluctant to support GOP candidates. "Strikingly, almost one in five California voters said they would never cast a ballot for a Republican," the survey reports. "Among Latinos, that rose to almost one in three. Only 5% of California voters were as emphatically anti-Democrat . . . The negative overlay both explained and helped determine the fates of the party's candidates in November. As a GOP tide swept the nation, Republicans here lost all statewide offices, with one contest, for attorney general, still unresolved but leaning toward the Democrat. Republicans here also failed to gain any congressional seats and lost a legislative seat."