Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Election 2012: Obama Approval, State By State

Posted Feb 28, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

Want a sense of how President Obama is doing in the state by state hunt for electoral votes in 2012? A just released Gallup state survey finds President Obama's approval rating in 2010 ranged from 66% in Hawaii to just 28% in Wyoming. Gallup writes: "More broadly, the president enjoyed 50% or higher approval in a group of 12 traditionally Democratic states, plus the District of Columbia. At the same time, he suffered average approval rates of 43% or less in 18 other states, most of which are traditionally "red" states."Here is Gallup's chart:


State of the States: Obama Job Approval, 2010

Gallup: GOP Advantage In 2012 Races?

Posted Feb 25, 2011 at 1:33 AM by Maurice Berger

Does the GOP hold an innate advantage in 2012 national races--including the president's reelection? The answer may now be yes, after several cycles of Democratic dominance. Gallup reports that between 2008 and 2010, the number of states that are lean-Democratic or strongly Democratic has decreased by more than half, from 30 to 14. Conversely, the number of lean-Republican and strongly Republican states has increased considerably, up from five to 10. And the number of so-called purple--or closely competitive states--has almost doubled, going from 10 to 18.

Election 2012: Huckabee Strongest GOP Challenger?

Posted Feb 23, 2011 at 11:45 PM by Maurice Berger

A just released Newsweek/Daily Beast poll reports that Mike Huckabee is tied with President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 presidential match up, 46% to 46%. In other match ups, Obama edges Mitt Romney, 49% to 47%, beats Donald Trump, 43% to 40%, and tops Sarah Palin, 51% to 40%.

Strong National Opposition To Wisconsin's Collective Bargaining Initiative

Posted Feb 23, 2011 at 1:15 AM by Maurice Berger

Both within the state of Wisconsin--and now, Gallup confirms, in the nation at large--much opposition exists towards the governor's union busting plans. A just released USA Today/Gallup poll reports  strong public opposition to laws taking away the collective bargaining power of public employee unions as a way to ease state financial troubles: 61% would oppose a law in their state similar; 33% who would favor such a law.

Gallup: Americans Rate Reagan Greatest President

Posted Feb 22, 2011 at 1:07 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup survey, "Americans are most likely to say Ronald Reagan was the nation's greatest president -- slightly ahead of Abraham Lincoln and Bill Clinton. Reagan, Lincoln, or John F. Kennedy has been at the top of this "greatest president" list each time this question has been asked in eight surveys over the last 12 years." Here is Gallup's chart:


Election 2012: Obama Tied Generically, But Leads Individual GOP Candidates

Posted Feb 18, 2011 at 12:48 AM by Maurice Berger

A Public Policy Polling survey reports that President Obama runs dead even in a re-election match up against a generic Republican, 47% to 47%. But when things get specific, the President's numbers improve considerably: he leads all of the named candidates in the poll, with a 3% advantage over Mike Huckabee, a 5% lead over Mitt Romney, a 9% lead over Newt Gingrich, and a whopping 12% advantage one over Sarah Palin.

Latino Voters Support Obama, But Up To A Point

Posted Feb 17, 2011 at 1:11 AM by Maurice Berger

A impreMedia/Latino Decisions poll reports that President Obama's approval rating among Latino voters is now up to an impressive 70%, after decreasing last year. Surprisingly, however, just 43% of Latino voters say they are sure they will vote for Obama next year.The latter number continues to suggest an opening for the GOP among Latino voters in the upcoming cycle.

Election 2012: How Strong A GOP Candidate Is Jeb Bush?

Posted Feb 16, 2011 at 1:38 AM by Maurice Berger

With calls for President George W. Brush's brother Jeb to throw his hat into the ring for the 2012 presidential election cycle, a key question remains: How strong a candidate would he make. A just released Fox News poll reports that President Obama leads Bush 54% to 34% in the poll, poor numbers indded for the former Florida governor.

Americans Growing More optimistic About Economy

Posted Feb 15, 2011 at 1:17 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Gallup poll reports that Americans as a whole are considerably more optimistic about the economy than they have been in years: 41% of Americans believe that the economy is improving, the highest level since Gallup began asking the question in 2008. There is demographic split on the issue, however: the most optimistic Americans are Democrats age 18-29; the least optimistic, Republicans 65 and older.

Election 2012: President Obama Leads GOP Pack

Posted Feb 14, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Fox News poll reports that President Obama leads all Republican challengers in hypothetical match ups for his 2012 reelection bid, by at least seven points. He leads Mitt Romney, 48% to 41%, beats Mike Huckabee, 49% to 41%, tops Sarah Palin, 56% to 35%, and is ahead of Newt Gingrich, 55% to 35%.

GOP Honeymoon Fades

Posted Feb 11, 2011 at 1:15 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Public Policy Polling survey reports that the GOP honeymoon with the American voter has been VERY short-lived. Democrats now once again lead the generic congressional ballot, 45% to 41%, an 11% swing since the November elections. Democrats also hold a seven point lead, 38% to 31%, among independent voters.

Rasmussen: Accessing the 2012 GOP Field

Posted Feb 10, 2011 at 1:59 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Rasmussen Reports survey offers an early look at potential 2012 match-ups,reporting that "Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee essentially run even with Obama at this point. Romney is nominally up two points, 44% to 42%, while Huckabee is tied with the president at 43% apiece. Three other well-known potential candidates, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul trail the president. Palin is down by 11 points, 49% to 38%, Gingrich by eight, 47% to 39%, and Paul by nine, 44% to 35%" 

2012 GOP Nomination: Huckabee Leads Nationally

Posted Feb 09, 2011 at 12:55 AM by Maurice Berger

A new CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that Mike Huckabee continues to lead Republican presidential hopefuls nationally with 21%, followed by Sarah Palin at 19%, Mitt Romney at 18%, Newt Gingrich at 10% and Ron Paul at 7%.

Nate Silver: 2012 GOP Field, Who's In, Who's Out

Posted Feb 08, 2011 at 1:01 AM by Maurice Berger

Nate Silver offers an interesting analysis of the 2012 GOP presidential field, exploring their status as insider vs. outsider and moderate vs. conservatives. Silver writes: "One dimension is obvious: we can classify the candidates from left to right, from relatively more moderate to relatively more conservative. But another dimension that is often salient in the primaries, and perhaps especially so for Republicans next year, is what we might think of as the insider/outsider axis: whether the candidate is viewed as part of the Republican establishment, or as a critic of it."


Big GOP/Democratic Schism In Perceptions Of The President

Posted Feb 07, 2011 at 1:27 AM by Maurice Berger

The gap between GOP and Democratic perceptions remains high, according to a new Gallup survey. According to Gallup's analysis, President Obama is one of the most polarizing presidents in decades. Obama's approval ratings in 2010 showed a 68% point gap between the percentage of Democrats who approve of him and the number of Republicans approving -- the largest gap in party ratings of any president since President Eisenhower.

Gallup: Unemployment Up in January To 9.8%

Posted Feb 04, 2011 at 12:44 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 9.8% at the end of January, up from 9.6% at the end of December. Broader U.S. underemployment was 18.9% in January, essentially the same as the 19.0% in December." For the full story click here.

Gallup: Job Creation Flat For Fourth Consecutive Month

Posted Feb 03, 2011 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger

Gallup's Job Creation Index "shows employees' reports of hiring activity at their places of work in January were unchanged, at +10, for the fourth consecutive month. Job creation has been essentially flat after improving steadily over the first half of 2010 and stabilizing at +9 in August and September. Twenty-nine percent of employees nationwide tell Gallup their companies are hiring and 19% say they are letting workers go -- precisely the same as in December, and essentially the same as in November and October."

2012 US Senate: Are The Democrats In Trouble?

Posted Feb 02, 2011 at 12:26 AM by Maurice Berger

An analysis by Politico suggests that the GOP may have an inherent advantage in the 2012 US Senate races, and may well be poised to take over from the Democrats: "Montana Rep. Denny Rehberg will challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in 2012, giving Republicans their first-choice candidate for the race and putting yet another incumbent in serious jeopardy. . . .  [An] Opinion Diagnostics survey of 400 likely Montana voters showed 49 percent backing Rehberg compared to 43 percent for Tester and 8 percent undecided . . . Rehberg’s announcement will mean Republicans have high-profile, formally announced challengers in four states where Democrats are up for reelection: Montana, Missouri (former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman), Nebraska (state Attorney General Jon Bruning) and Virginia (former Sen. George Allen). That’s not to mention the open Senate seat in North Dakota, where Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad’s retirement gives Republicans a strong pickup opportunity, and Florida, where several solid candidates are circling the race against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. Some of these candidates are facing competitive primaries, but the big picture is this: Senate Republicans have already put a sizable list of Democratic seats in play and they only need to net four to hit the 51-seat mark."

GOP Nomination 2012: Huckabee Up In Iowa, Romney in NH

Posted Feb 01, 2011 at 1:48 AM by Maurice Berger

Strategic National commissioned two polls of the Republican presidential race in Iowa and New Hampshire. Here are the results: In Iowa, Mike Huckabee leads by at 28%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19%, Sarah Palin at 12%, Newt Gingrich at 12%, Tim Pawlenty at 4% and Michele Bachmann at 4%. In New Hampshire, it is Mitt Romney who leads at 34%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 14%, Sarah Palin at 13%, Newt Gingrich at 9% and Tim Pawlenty at 5%.