Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Big Jump Nationally In Hispanic Population

Posted Mar 31, 2011 at 1:39 AM by Maurice Berger

According to National Journal, "the Hispanic population surged 43% in the last decade and Hispanics now make up more than 16% of the nation's population." As the Journal notes, this jump could have enormous implications, both for the Democratic and Republican parties: "Every state in the nation saw a surge in Latinos, and traditional Latino gateways along the border still have the highest percentage, other states also saw rapid Hispanic growth: There are now 17  states where Hispanics make up at least 10 percent of the population, including Utah, Rhode Island and Kansas. In five states, Hispanics now account for at least a quarter of the population. In states such as Texas and Arizona, that could be good news for Democrats, who have been benefitting from a Hispanic backlash against Republicans' tough rhetoric on illegal immigration. Exit polls indicated that President Obama got two-thirds of the Hispanic vote in the 2008 election."

Possible Good News For Obama: Ohio Democratic Senator Ahead

Posted Mar 30, 2011 at 1:04 AM by Maurice Berger

In what may spell good news for the President's reelection efforts next year, a new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio reports that Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown ahead in his reelection effort, suggesting a lessing of GOP gains in this ultimate swing state. Brown is supported over an unnamed GOP challenger by 45% to 29%. Additionally, voters say--by a margin of 45% to 30%--that Brown deserves a second term. Does this suggest a true reversal of GOP fortunes in the state? Time will tell. 

2012 GOP Nomination: Huckabee Continues To Lead Nationally

Posted Mar 29, 2011 at 2:11 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Gallup survey reports that Mike Huckabee continues to lead in the race for the 2012 GOP Presidential nomination with 19%; he is followed by Mitt Romney at 15%, Sarah Palin at 12% and Newt Gingrich at 10%. According to Gallup, if "Huckabee were not a candidate, most of his support would go to the top three remaining candidates. Romney and Palin would essentially tie for the lead, at 19% and 17%, respectively, with Gingrich getting a bump in support to 13%."

Libya: Lowest Support Ever For U.S. Military Action

Posted Mar 27, 2011 at 11:40 PM by Maurice Berger

According to a Gallup survey, 47% of Americans now approve of the military action against Libya. This number represents the lowest approval for any U.S. military campaign over the past four decades as gauged by Gallup.Here is Gallup's chart of comparable supports for military actions:

Approval of Prior U.S. Military Actions

Milestone: Majority Of Americans Now Support Gay Marriage

Posted Mar 25, 2011 at 12:48 AM by Maurice Berger

According to polls conducted by ABC News/Washington Post, "more than half of Americans say it should be legal for gays and lesbians to marry, a first in nearly a decade of polls" conducted by these organizations. "This milestone result caps a dramatic, long-term shift in public attitudes. From a low of 32 percent in a 2004 survey of registered voters, support for gay marriage has grown to 53 percent today. Forty-four percent are opposed, down 18 points from that 2004 survey." Another survey indicates from Public Religion Research Institute reports that 43% of Catholics are now in favor of allowing gay and lesbian people to marry, 31% in favor of civil unions, and 22% who said there should be no legal recognition of a gay relationship. Just as significant, 39% of Catholics approve of the church's negative treatment of the issue of homosexuality; 56% do not.

Americans Remain Divided On Health Care Law

Posted Mar 24, 2011 at 12:37 AM by Maurice Berger

Nearing a full year since passage of the health care bill, a new Gallup poll reports that Americans remain divided about whether it was a good thing or a bad thing, with 46% saying it was a good thing and 44% saying it was a bad thing. 44% also believe the law will make medical care worse, versus 39% who say the law will improve medical care.

 

Large Majority Disapprove of President's Handling Of Economy

Posted Mar 23, 2011 at 12:53 AM by Maurice Berger

While a just released CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that a bare majority of Americans -- 51% -- approve of President Obama's job performance, 60% disapprove of his handling of the economy (with 39% approving), the largest level of disapproval on the issue in his presidency.

Union Support: Republicans Overall Negative, Democrats Positive

Posted Mar 21, 2011 at 11:35 PM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup survey, "Americans are slightly more likely to say something negative rather than positive when asked what word or phrase comes to mind when they think of "labor unions." By about a 3-to-1 ratio, Republicans have negative rather than positive things to say about labor unions. By better than 2 to 1, Democrats' impressions of unions are more positive than negative." Here is Gallup's chart:

What Word or Phrase Comes to Mind When You Think of Labor Unions? March 2011 Results, by Positive, Negative, or Neutral Responses, Among National Adults and by Party ID

Republican Sen. Scott Brown Popular In Massachusetts

Posted Mar 17, 2011 at 11:51 PM by Maurice Berger

Republican U.S. Senator Scott Brown is showing surprising strength in the bluest of blue state of Massachusetts. A new Western New England College poll reports that 52% of registered voters say Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) deserves to be re-elected, while 28% say he does not deserve to be re-elected. In hypothetical match ups, Brown leads Rep. Mike Capuano (D-MA), 51% to 38%, and tops Elizabeth Warren (D), 51% to 34%.

Christie Most Liked Among GOP Pack

Posted Mar 16, 2011 at 4:10 PM by Maurice Berger

According to a just released Daily Caller/ConservativeHome poll, a tiny plurality of Republicans--15%-- would like to see New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) as their presidential candidate in 2012. However, 27% expect Mitt Romney to win the nomination.

 

Americans Disapprove of Obama's Handling Of Economy, But Trust Him More Than The GOP

Posted Mar 16, 2011 at 1:14 AM by Maurice Berger

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll reports that Americans disapprove of President Obama's handling of the economy--just 43% approve of the way President Obama--but just as significant, 46% say they trust Obama on the issue as compared to 34% who trust Republicans.  The poll continues: "What's more, by a 9-point margin Americans now see Obama as better able to handle the deficit than GOP lawmakers in Congress. That represents an 11-point drop for the GOP since December -- a period when Republicans have made cutting federal spending a centerpiece of their agenda."

Presidential Approval/Disapproval Ratings Tied

Posted Mar 15, 2011 at 1:23 AM by Maurice Berger

After an upswing in support for President Obama in recent months, his approval rating is now tied at 47.6% with his disapproval rating in PollTrack's aggregate as of Sunday night.

GOP Nomination 2012: Huckabee Remains Iowa Frontrunner

Posted Mar 14, 2011 at 12:37 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released We Ask America poll in Iowa reports that Mike Huckabee continues to lead the Republican presidential pack, with 20%, followed by Sarah Palin at 14%, Newt Gingrich at 13%, Mitt Romney at 13%, Donald Trump at 9%, Ron Paul at 5%, Tim Pawlenty at 4%, Haley Barbour at 3% and Mitch Daniels at 2%.

Troubling Signs For Obama Reelection?

Posted Mar 11, 2011 at 1:01 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests that there may be problems ahead for President Obama in his 2012 reelection bid: Americans now believe the country is on the wrong track by a huge margin--64% to 31%. The move is driven largely by the rise in gasoline prices due to Middle East turmoil. A perhaps even more ominous warning sign: the president's job approval dropped slightly to 49% from last month, but his approval rating among independent voters--a key continuency for his reelection chances--took a significant ten point dive to 37%.

NJ Govenor Chris Christie "Hottest" Politician?

Posted Mar 10, 2011 at 12:46 AM by Maurice Berger

The new Quinnipiac thermometer poll, testing public perceptions of political figures, reports that Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is the "hottest politician" with American voters; President  Obama is in fourth place in the survey. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is the "coolest" politician, followed by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Sarah Palin.

Poll: Same-Sex Marriage Milestone

Posted Mar 09, 2011 at 12:32 AM by Maurice Berger

The new General Social Survey from the University of Chicago reports that for the first time more Americans support same-sex marriage than oppose it: 46% to 40%. In a similar poll twenty-three years ago, a whopping 73% of Americans opposed same-sex marriage.

Lack of GOP Front-Runner Is Atypical

Posted Mar 08, 2011 at 12:51 AM by Maurice Berger

Gallup reports: "The close contest among Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney in Republicans' preferences for the 2012 presidential nomination is atypical for a party accustomed to having strong early front-runners. In all 10 competitive GOP races since 1952, one candidate started off strongly, and in 8 of them, he prevailed." Here is Gallup's chart:

Gallup Republican Primary Nomination Polls: Competitive Races, 1952-2008

Huckabee Ahead In South

Posted Mar 07, 2011 at 12:59 AM by Maurice Berger

A Winthrop University poll of southern states reports that Mike Huckabee leads his hypothetical rivals in the 2012 Republican presidential primary rivals.  Huckabee receives 21.9%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 12.9%, Sarah Palin at 8.7%, Mitt Romney at 6.9%, Tim Pawlenty at 6.2% and Ron Paul at 5.7%. The president's approval rating remains extremely low in the South, with just 38% approving and 51% disapproving.

Americans Strongly Pro-Union

Posted Mar 04, 2011 at 1:43 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll reports that 62% of Americans strongly oppose efforts to strip unionized government workers of their rights to collectively bargain; 33% support the idea. 

Voter Attitudes Towards Government Shutdown

Posted Mar 03, 2011 at 12:53 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Quinnipiac poll reports that American voters are divided in their opinion about a possible federal government shutdown: 46% say it would be a good thing; 44% believe it would be a bad thing. As for blame if the shutdown occurs: voters would blame Republicans more than President Obama, 47% to 38%.

Conservative or Liberal: Breakdown of States

Posted Mar 01, 2011 at 11:43 PM by Maurice Berger

Which states are most liberal and which are most conservative? Gallup examines how voters in each state identify their political views. Since "ideological self-identification tends to be stable over time, "the most and least conservative states have not changed much in recent years." Here is Gallup's chart:

Top 10 Conservative States, 2010Top 10 Liberal States, 2010

 

Broad Support for Public Service Workers

Posted Mar 01, 2011 at 12:49 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a New York Times/CBS News Poll, "As labor battles erupt in state capitals around the nation, a majority of Americans say they oppose efforts to weaken the collective bargaining rights of public employee unions and are also against cutting the pay or benefits of public workers to reduce state budget deficits . . . Americans oppose weakening the bargaining rights of public employee unions by a margin of nearly two to one: 60 percent to 33 percent. While a slim majority of Republicans favored taking away some bargaining rights, they were outnumbered by large majorities of Democrats and independents who said they opposed weakening them. Those surveyed said they opposed, 56 percent to 37 percent, cutting the pay or benefits of public employees to reduce deficits, breaking down along similar party lines. A majority of respondents who have no union members living in their households opposed both cuts in pay or benefits and taking away the collective bargaining rights of public employees."