Posted May 31, 2011 at 2:00 AM by Maurice Berger
A poll by Democracy Corps reports that disapproval of House Republicans has dramatically increased from 46% in February to 55% in April to a whopping 59% in May. Disapproval now outnumbers approval two-to-one; intense disapproval by three-to-one.
Posted May 27, 2011 at 7:41 AM by Maurice Berger
Enjoy your Memorial Day weekend. PollTrack is on break until next Tuesday, 31 May.
Posted May 27, 2011 at 1:00 AM by Maurice Berger
The latest Quinnipiac poll in Florida has very good news for President Obama: approval rating in the state has improved
significantly since early April -- before the death of Osama bin Laden. His numbers have flipped from a net negative approval of 44% to 52% to a net positive
of 51% in favor and 43% opposed. Perhaps more significant: a majority of Florida voters now say
Obama deserves reelection, 50% to 44%. The biggest movement is among independents: "Obama's improved job rating in Florida is
largely due to a big swing among independent voters, from a negative 39%
to 55% April 7 to a split 47% to 45% today."
Posted May 26, 2011 at 1:21 AM by Maurice Berger
Can Wisconsin Democrats save the US Senate seat being vacated in 2012 with the retirement of Herb Kohl? A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin suggests that one strong Democratic candidate may be former US Sen. Russ Feingold, defeated in late year's GOP wipe-out. In hypothetical match ups, Feingold leads Tommy Thompson (R), 52% to
42%, Mark Neumann (R), 53% to 41%, JB Van Hollen (R), 53% to 38%, and
Jeff Fitzgerald (R), 54% to 39%.
Posted May 25, 2011 at 2:41 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Gallup survey, "Americans are closely divided between those calling themselves
"pro-choice" and those who are "pro-life," now 49% and 45%,
respectively, in Gallup's 2011 update on U.S. abortion attitudes. This
is similar to a year ago, when 45% were "pro-choice" and 47% "pro-life."
However, it is the first time since 2008 that the "pro-choice" position
has had the numerical advantage on this Gallup trend." Here is Gallup's trend chart:
Posted May 24, 2011 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released WMUR-CNN poll in New Hampshire reports that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has a huge lead in the
Republican presidential race with 33%, followed by Rep. Ron Paul at 9%,
Newt Gingrich at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 6% and Rudy Giuliani at 6%.
Posted May 23, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger
In what represents a dynamic shift in American public opinion, a new Gallup tracking survey reports that "for the first time in . . . of the issue, a majority of
Americans (53%) believe same-sex marriage should be recognized by the
law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages. The
increase since last year came exclusively among political independents
and Democrats. Republicans' views did not change. Here's Gallup's chart:
Posted May 20, 2011 at 12:02 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released USA Today/Gallup survey roports that a mere 28% of registered voters believe that most members of
Congress deserve re-election; this number ties the low set last
year, before the GOP's historic gains. Gallup observes: "The anti-incumbent mood that led to sweeping changes in Congress after
the 2010 elections persists, and the accompanying change in House
leadership has not fundamentally altered the way Americans view
Congress. Thus, incumbents remain vulnerable heading into the 2012
election cycle, though perhaps not quite as vulnerable as in 2010, given
that voters are now more inclined to say their own member deserves
Posted May 19, 2011 at 12:43 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey by Gallup reports that by a 47% to 19% margin, Americans say they would oppose their member of
Congress voting to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, while 34% don't
know enough to say. By party affiliation, Republicans oppose raising the debt ceiling by 70%
to 8%; independents by 46% to 15%; Democrats favor raising the
ceiling by 33% to 26%.
Posted May 18, 2011 at 1:06 AM by Maurice Berger
As measured by Gallup, unemployment "is at
9.2% in mid-May -- down slightly from 9.4% at the end of April and a
year ago. The broader underemployment rate is 19.1% -- down slightly
from last month and on par with May 2010."
Posted May 17, 2011 at 12:51 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey from Public Policy Polling reports that voters are significantly more concerned about the economy than they are about the war on terrorism: 74% name the economy as a more important issue than
the war (10% said the latter). 61% say they
care more about gas prices; only 23% in contrast say the war--views shared almost equally across partisan lines.
Posted May 15, 2011 at 4:11 PM by Maurice Berger
An Associated Press-GfK poll reports that 45% of Republicans remain dissatisfied with the field of declared GOP
presidential candidates as well as those believed to be serious
about running. This represents a 12% gain from one month ago. Just 41% are satisfied with these candidates, down from 52%.
Posted May 13, 2011 at 12:34 AM by Maurice Berger
In a hint of the priorities of GOP voters in the primaries and caucuses for the 2012 nomination for president, a Gallup survey reports that "given a choice, 36% of Republicans say business and the economy are
the most important political issues to them, up from 32% in March, and
now on par with the percentage who say the same about government
spending and power. Fewer Republicans choose either social issues and
moral values or national security and foreign policy as their top
political priorities." Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted May 12, 2011 at 12:03 AM by Maurice Berger
A Smart Politics monitoring ans analysis of congressional press releases issued this week the mission to
kill Osama bin Laden reports that
60% of House Democrats credited President Obama's role; just 24% of GOP congressmen even
Posted May 11, 2011 at 12:53 AM by Maurice Berger
A CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that registered voters favor a generic Democrat over a Republican
in next year's congressional election, 50% to 46%. Women and non-college voters--both of whom supported the GOP in
2010--now favoring Democrats by 10% and 9%,
Posted May 10, 2011 at 12:51 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released NBC News poll reports that an outright majority of Americans--52%, according to the survey--strongly believe President Obama made the right decision not to release the photos of Osama bin Laden after he was killed; 24% strongly oppose the decision. Overall, 64% agreed
with the president and 29% disagreed.
Posted May 09, 2011 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger
As of Sunday morning, President Obama continues to enjoy an appreciable bounce in his approval rating following the successful mission to capture Osama Bin Laden. His aggregate approval rating comes in at 51.6%; his disapproval number 42.3%, for an aggregate advantage of +9.3%.
Posted May 05, 2011 at 11:00 PM by Maurice Berger
If critically wounded Democratic U.S. Representative Gabrielle Giffords were to run in the 2012 Arizona US Senate race, a new Public Policy Polling survey in Arizona reports that she would start out
with a 7 point lead in a hypothetical match up with likely GOP candidate Rep. Jeff Flake,
48% to 41%.
Posted May 05, 2011 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger
After months of hovering in the mid-40% range, President Obama has achieved a considerable bounce after the news of Osama Bin Laden's capture and death. The president's approval rating now stands at 51%; his disapproval number is 43.1%, for an aggregate advantage of +7.9%. Will this number hold up over time. Hard to say, but past history shows that a bounce achieved following a major foreign policy victory tends to be short-lived, especially if the economy is poor and unemployment high. Stay tuned for updates.
Posted May 04, 2011 at 2:55 AM by Maurice Berger
Posted May 03, 2011 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released Fox News poll reports that Mitt Romney is now in the lead among GOP voters for the 2012 nomination: Romney comes in at 19%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 17%,
Sarah Palin at 9%, Trump at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7% and Ron Paul at 7%.
Posted May 02, 2011 at 1:54 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released Gallup poll reports that Americans are evenly divided in their view of Speaker of the House John Boehner. What is more significant is the weakness o his support. Americans are just as likely to say they have an unfavorable as a
favorable opinion of him, 34% to 34%. In January his positive rating was 42%; his negative number at 22%.