Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Americans Strongly Disapprove Of House Republicans

Posted May 31, 2011 at 2:00 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Democracy Corps reports that disapproval of House Republicans has dramatically increased from 46% in February to 55% in April to a whopping 59% in May.  Disapproval now outnumbers approval two-to-one; intense disapproval by three-to-one.

Happy Holiday Weekend

Posted May 27, 2011 at 7:41 AM by Maurice Berger

Enjoy your Memorial Day weekend. PollTrack is on break until next Tuesday, 31 May.

Election 2012: Good News For Obama In Florida

Posted May 27, 2011 at 1:00 AM by Maurice Berger

The latest Quinnipiac poll in Florida has very good news for President Obama: approval rating in the state has improved significantly since early April -- before the death of Osama bin Laden. His numbers have flipped from a net negative approval of 44% to 52% to a net positive of 51% in favor and 43% opposed. Perhaps more significant: a majority of Florida voters now say Obama deserves reelection, 50% to 44%. The biggest movement is among independents: "Obama's improved job rating in Florida is largely due to a big swing among independent voters, from a negative 39% to 55% April 7 to a split 47% to 45% today."

Wisonsin US Senate 2012: Russ Feingold To The Rescue?

Posted May 26, 2011 at 1:21 AM by Maurice Berger

Can Wisconsin Democrats save the US Senate seat being vacated in 2012 with the retirement of Herb Kohl? A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin suggests that one strong Democratic candidate may be former US Sen. Russ Feingold, defeated in late year's GOP wipe-out. In hypothetical match ups, Feingold leads Tommy Thompson (R), 52% to 42%, Mark Neumann (R), 53% to 41%, JB Van Hollen (R), 53% to 38%, and Jeff Fitzgerald (R), 54% to 39%.

Americans Evenly Divided On Abortion

Posted May 25, 2011 at 2:41 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup survey, "Americans are closely divided between those calling themselves "pro-choice" and those who are "pro-life," now 49% and 45%, respectively, in Gallup's 2011 update on U.S. abortion attitudes. This is similar to a year ago, when 45% were "pro-choice" and 47% "pro-life." However, it is the first time since 2008 that the "pro-choice" position has had the numerical advantage on this Gallup trend." Here is Gallup's trend chart: 1995-2011 Trend: U.S. Adults' Position on Abortion (Pro-Choice vs. Pro-Life)

Election 2012: Romney Ahead In New Hampshire

Posted May 24, 2011 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released WMUR-CNN poll in New Hampshire reports that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has a huge lead in the Republican presidential race with 33%, followed by Rep. Ron Paul at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 6% and Rudy Giuliani at 6%.

Gallup: Dynamic Shift In Support Of Gay Marriage

Posted May 23, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

In what represents a dynamic shift in American public opinion, a new Gallup tracking survey reports that "for the first time in . . . of the issue, a majority of Americans (53%) believe same-sex marriage should be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages. The increase since last year came exclusively among political independents and Democrats. Republicans' views did not change. Here's Gallup's chart:

1996-2011 Trend: Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?

Are US Voters Angry With Incumbents?

Posted May 20, 2011 at 12:02 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released USA Today/Gallup survey roports that a mere 28% of registered voters believe that most members of Congress deserve re-election; this number ties the low set last year, before the GOP's historic gains. Gallup observes: "The anti-incumbent mood that led to sweeping changes in Congress after the 2010 elections persists, and the accompanying change in House leadership has not fundamentally altered the way Americans view Congress. Thus, incumbents remain vulnerable heading into the 2012 election cycle, though perhaps not quite as vulnerable as in 2010, given that voters are now more inclined to say their own member deserves re-election."

Americans Oppose Raising Debt Ceiling

Posted May 19, 2011 at 12:43 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Gallup reports that by a 47% to 19% margin, Americans say they would oppose their member of Congress voting to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, while 34% don't know enough to say. By party affiliation, Republicans oppose raising the debt ceiling by 70% to 8%; independents by 46% to 15%; Democrats favor raising the ceiling by 33% to 26%.

Gallup: Unemployment at 9.2%

Posted May 18, 2011 at 1:06 AM by Maurice Berger

As measured by Gallup, unemployment "is at 9.2% in mid-May -- down slightly from 9.4% at the end of April and a year ago. The broader underemployment rate is 19.1% -- down slightly from last month and on par with May 2010."

Economy Top Concern Of Voters

Posted May 17, 2011 at 12:51 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey from Public Policy Polling reports that voters are significantly more concerned about the economy than they are about the war on terrorism: 74% name the economy as a more important issue than the war (10% said the latter). 61% say they care more about gas prices; only 23% in contrast say the war--views shared almost equally across partisan lines.

Republicans Down On 2012 Presidential Field

Posted May 15, 2011 at 4:11 PM by Maurice Berger

An Associated Press-GfK poll reports that 45% of Republicans remain dissatisfied with the field of declared GOP presidential candidates as well as those believed to be serious about running. This represents a 12% gain from one month ago. Just 41% are satisfied with these candidates, down from 52%.

GOP Voters Rate Business and Economy As Top Political Concerns

Posted May 13, 2011 at 12:34 AM by Maurice Berger

In a hint of the priorities of GOP voters in the primaries and caucuses for the 2012 nomination for president, a Gallup survey reports that "given a choice, 36% of Republicans say business and the economy are the most important political issues to them, up from 32% in March, and now on par with the percentage who say the same about government spending and power. Fewer Republicans choose either social issues and moral values or national security and foreign policy as their top political priorities." Here is Gallup's chart: Trend: Republicans' Issue Priorities

Republican and Democrats Differ On Bin Laden Credit

Posted May 12, 2011 at 12:03 AM by Maurice Berger

A Smart Politics monitoring ans analysis of congressional press releases issued this week the mission to kill Osama bin Laden reports that 60% of House Democrats credited President Obama's role; just 24% of GOP congressmen even mentioned Obama.

Democrats Ahead In Generic Congressional Ballot

Posted May 11, 2011 at 12:53 AM by Maurice Berger

A CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that registered voters favor a generic Democrat over a Republican in next year's congressional election, 50% to 46%. Women and non-college voters--both of whom supported the GOP in 2010--now favoring Democrats by 10% and 9%, respectively.

Most Americans Support Obama On Bin Laden Photos

Posted May 10, 2011 at 12:51 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released NBC News poll reports that an outright majority of Americans--52%, according to the survey--strongly believe President Obama made the right decision not to release the photos of Osama bin Laden after he was killed; 24% strongly oppose the decision. Overall, 64% agreed with the president and 29% disagreed.

President Continues To Enjoy Post-Bin Laden Bounce

Posted May 09, 2011 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger

As of Sunday morning, President Obama continues to enjoy an appreciable bounce in his approval rating following the successful mission to capture Osama Bin Laden. His aggregate approval rating comes in at 51.6%; his disapproval number 42.3%, for an aggregate advantage of +9.3%.

AZ US Senate 2012: Giffords Leads In Hypothetical Match Up

Posted May 05, 2011 at 11:00 PM by Maurice Berger

If critically wounded Democratic U.S. Representative Gabrielle Giffords were to run in the 2012 Arizona US Senate race, a new Public Policy Polling survey in Arizona reports that she would start out with a 7 point lead in a hypothetical match up with likely GOP candidate Rep. Jeff Flake, 48% to 41%.

President Obama's Bounce

Posted May 05, 2011 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger

After months of hovering in the mid-40% range, President Obama has achieved a considerable bounce after the news of Osama Bin Laden's capture and death. The president's approval rating now stands at 51%; his disapproval number is 43.1%, for an aggregate advantage of +7.9%. Will this number hold up over time. Hard to say, but past history shows that a bounce achieved following a major foreign policy victory tends to be short-lived, especially if the economy is poor and unemployment high. Stay tuned for updates.

Stay Tuned For The President's Post Bin Laden Approval Numbers

Posted May 04, 2011 at 2:55 AM by Maurice Berger

Fox News Poll: Romney Leads GOP Pack

Posted May 03, 2011 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Fox News poll reports that Mitt Romney is now in the lead among GOP voters for the 2012 nomination: Romney comes in at 19%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 17%, Sarah Palin at 9%, Trump at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7% and Ron Paul at 7%.

House Speaker Boehner Not Popular

Posted May 02, 2011 at 1:54 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Gallup poll reports that Americans are evenly divided in their view of Speaker of the House John Boehner. What is more significant is the weakness o his support. Americans are just as likely to say they have an unfavorable as a favorable opinion of him, 34% to 34%. In January his positive rating was 42%; his negative number at 22%.