Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

GOP Voters Lack Enthusiasm For Their Candidates

Posted Jun 30, 2011 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger

A New York Times/CBS News poll reports that GOP voters are not at all enthusiastic for the pack of 2012 contenders for the Republican nomination for president: 70% of GOP voters now express dissatisfaction with their candidates and wish they had more choices. Even the presumptive frontrunners--Mitt Romney and Rep. Michele Bachmann--could muster the enthusiasm of no more than 7% of Republican voters apiece.

Nation Pessimistic About Economic Future

Posted Jun 29, 2011 at 2:12 AM by Maurice Berger

A Pew Research poll reports that "the public's economic optimism is now at its lowest point since July 2008, shortly before the financial crisis." According to the survey, 29% of respondents expect that economic conditions will be better a year from now; 23% say things will be worse. Last October, a considerable plurality of respondents said the economy would be better, rather than worse, in a year (35% vs. 16%).

Americans Closely Divided On Obama Reelection

Posted Jun 28, 2011 at 1:53 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Associated Press-GfK poll reports that Americans are virtually tied on the question of whether President Obama deserves re-election: 48% say yes, 47% no.

Iowa Poll: Romney/Palin Nearly Tied

Posted Jun 27, 2011 at 1:59 AM by Maurice Berger

Good news for Mitt Romney in the year's first Des Moines Register Iowa Poll on the Republican presidential field. While pundits have wondered whether Romney may be consrrvative enough to win the GOP Iowa Caucus, which tilts towards social conservatives, the poll has Romney in the lead at 23%. The bad news for the former Massachusetts Governor is that Michele Bachmann is nearly tied with him at 22% among likely Republican caucus-goers. They are followed by Herman Cain at 10%, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 6%, Rick Santorum at 4% and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

Election 2012: Unemployment Up in Swing States

Posted Jun 24, 2011 at 2:00 AM by Maurice Berger

In yet another problem for the incumbent president, The Fix examines the most recent state-by-state unemployment numbers and reports "that in every one of the 14 swing states heading into 2012 -- Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin -- the unemployment rate has risen since October 2008."

Overwhelming Majority Dissatisfied With The Direction Of The Country

Posted Jun 23, 2011 at 1:24 AM by Maurice Berger

In what may become a looming problem for President Obama in his 2012 reelection effort, a new Gallup survey reports that Americans' satisfaction with the way things are going in the country fell to just 20%; 78% of Americans are now dissatisfied with the nation's direction.

Election 2012: Romney Ahead In GOP Primary In CA

Posted Jun 22, 2011 at 1:40 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Field Poll in California reports: Mitt Romney "holds a solid lead over his 2012 GOP presidential rivals among the state's Republican voters . . . Romney is preferred by 25 percent of registered GOP voters, giving the former Massachusetts governor a double-digit lead over each of his challengers. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, viewed as Romney's leading competitor for the nomination, barely registered in the poll, earning just 3 percent support . . .

Romney's closest competition comes from two candidates who haven't even joined the race to deny Democratic President Obama a second term: former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (17 percent), and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (10 percent). If Giuliani is taken out of the field, Romney's lead widens - to 30 percent and a more than 2-to-1 lead over Palin at 12 percent in second position, the poll shows."

African-American Unemployment As High As In Great Depression

Posted Jun 21, 2011 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger

Cbs News reports that "while unemployment among the general population is about 9.1 percent, it's at 16.2 percent African Americans, and a bit higher still for African American males . . . historically, the unemployment rate for African Americans has always been higher than the national average. However, now it's at Depression-era levels. The most recent figures show African American joblessness at 16.2 percent. For black males, it's at 17.5 percent; And for black teens, it's nearly 41 percent."

Another Poll Shows Romney Way Ahead In NH

Posted Jun 20, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll in New Hampshire, this one from Magellan Strategies reports that Mitt Romney holds a substantial lead over all potential GOP primary challengers with 42%: Rep. Ron Paul and Rep. Michelle Bachmann are tied at 10%, Sarah Palin comes in at 7%, Rudy Giuliani at 6% and Tim Pawlenty at 5%.

Romney Ahead In Nomination Battle, Trails Obama In General Election

Posted Jun 17, 2011 at 2:30 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll reports that Mitt Romney is considerably ahead in his quest for the 2012 GOP nomination for president: he now is at 30%, followed by Sarah Palin at 14%, Herman Cain at 12%, Rick Perry at 8%, Ron Paul at 7%, Newt Gingrich at 6%, Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum at 4% and Michele Bachmann at 3%. In a general election match up,
45% said they would probably vote to re-elect President Obama; 40% would opt for a generic Republican candidate. Against specific GOP contenders, the president's lead increased considerably, with Obama besting Romney, 49% to 43%.

Democratic Party Affiliation Grows

Posted Jun 16, 2011 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger

In a good sign for Democrats, party affiliation has grown in recent months comparable to the GOP. A new Gallup poll finds 45% of Americans identified as Democrats last month as compared to 39% who identified as Republicans.

Americans Name Economy As The Nation's Top Problem

Posted Jun 15, 2011 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup survey, all major subgroups of Americans thus far in 2011 have named either "the economy" or unemployment as the nation's top problem, although not necessarily in that order, according to an average of Gallup's monthly Most Important Problem measures from January through May. Here is Gallup's chart:

Top Five Issues Named as Most Important Problem, by Major Subgroups, January-May 2011

Potential GOP Candidates Unpopular In Home States

Posted Jun 14, 2011 at 1:58 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that virtually all of the potential GOP candidates for president remain unpopular in their home states: "We've done polls in Massachusetts and Minnesota over the last couple weeks and found that Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Michele Bachmann are all unpopular in their home states. That's par for the course with this GOP Presidential field- we've polled on 9 of the candidates or potential candidates in their home states and only one of them is well liked- Gary Johnson in New Mexico."

Here's PPP's chart, from most popular to least popular:

Candidate (State)

Favorability

Net

Gary Johnson (New Mexico)

44/32

+12

Newt Gingrich (Georgia)

39/47

-8

Herman Cain (Georgia)

28/36

-8

Rick Perry (Texas)

42/50

-8

Rick Santorum (Pennsylvania)

37/47

-10

Mitt Romney (Massachusetts)

40/52

-12

Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota)

40/53

-13

Sarah Palin (Alaska)

33/58

-25

Michele Bachmann (Minnesota)

33/59

-26

Election 2012: President Obama In Trouble In PA?

Posted Jun 13, 2011 at 1:18 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll reports that President Obama is struggling in his reelection bid in Pennsylvania: "It's no secret that President Obama is on the down-slope politically, and that includes the pivotal state of Pennsylvania. A new poll from Susquehanna Polling and Research says that 48% of Pennsylvanians disapprove of Obama's performance, while 41% approve. Also: Only 43% of registered voters in Pennsylvania say Obama has done well enough to deserve re-election, the poll said; 50% say 'it is time to give a new person a chance.'"

Majority Disapprove Of GOP Medicare Plan

Posted Jun 09, 2011 at 9:14 PM by Maurice Berger

A CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that 58% of Americans oppose GOP Rep. Paul Ryan's Medicare overhaul proposal; just 35% support it. Significantly, 54% of conservatives also oppose the plan. Republicans are split, with 50% opposing and 48% supporting.

Americans Express Strong Belief In God

Posted Jun 08, 2011 at 4:42 PM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by Gallup, "more than 9 in 10 Americans still say "yes" when asked the basic question "Do you believe in God?"; this is down only slightly from the 1940s, when Gallup first asked this question." Here is Gallup's historical chart:

Trend: Do you believe in God?

Gallup continues: "Despite the many changes that have rippled through American society over the last 6 ½ decades, belief in God as measured in this direct way has remained high and relatively stable. Gallup initially used this question wording in November 1944, when 96% said "yes." That percentage dropped to 94% in 1947, but increased to 98% in several Gallup surveys conducted in the 1950s and 1960s. Gallup stopped using this question format in the 1960s, before including it again in Gallup's May 5-8 survey this year."

Election 2012: Minnesotans Cool To The Idea Of Bachmann or Pawlenty Presidential Run

Posted Jun 07, 2011 at 3:03 AM by Maurice Berger

Two GOP Minnesota politicians are considering a race for president in 2012: Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Gov. Tim Pawlenty. What do the people of the state think about this. A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that Minnesota voters are, at best, cool to the idea: "Only 28% think Pawlenty should seek the White House to 17% who think he should run for the Senate and 45% who think he shouldn't run for anything. There's even less interest in a Bachmann Presidential run -- 14% think she should seek that office to 23% who think she should run for the Senate, 10% who think she should run for reelection to her House seat, and 47% who just want her to go away."

Election 2012: Dems See Romney and Huntsman As Biggest Threat

Posted Jun 06, 2011 at 10:03 AM by Maurice Berger

A National Journal survey of Democratic insiders reports that Mitt Romney is seen as the biggest threat to President Obama by 27%, followed closely by Jon Huntsman at 25%, Tim Pawlenty at 20%, Chris Christie at 11%, and Rick Perry at 5%.

Election 2012: Romney and Palin In Lead for GOP Nomination

Posted Jun 03, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

Public Policy Polling national survey of the strength of potential candidates for the 2012 GOP nomination reports that with Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump out of the race, Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin are now leading the pack with 16% each. Tim Pawlenty is at 13%, Herman Cain at 12% and Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul at 9%.

2012 Iowa Caucuses: Romney Leads

Posted Jun 02, 2011 at 1:40 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Iowa finds Mitt Romney leading the Republican presidential field with 21%; Sarah Palin and Herman Cain are each at at 15%; Newt Gingrich at 12%; Michele Bachman at 11%; Tim Pawlenty at 10%;and Ron Paul at 8%.

Florida Poll: Voters Cool On Gov. Scott

Posted Jun 01, 2011 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Are voters cooling on the new crop of GOP politicians elected to office in 2010? A new poll suggests that at least in Florida the answer may be yes (though other polls in other states suggest discontent with newly elected GOP governors and senators).  The Quinnipiac poll in Florida reports that 57% of voters disapprove of the job Gov. Rick Scott (R) is doing; just 29% approve--the lowest approval rating of any governor in the states surveyed by the polling organization.