Posted Jul 29, 2011 at 1:15 AM by Maurice Berger
It what can be read as good news for President Obama in Ohio, A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has a commanding lead over two potential GOP challengers. Brown leads State Treasurer Josh Mandel, 49% to 34%, and tops State Sen. Kevin Coughlin, 50% to 32%.Combined with the exceptionally low approval rating of the state's Republican Governor, these numbers suggests that the closely divided state is trending slightly more Democratic in recent days
Posted Jul 28, 2011 at 1:02 AM by Maurice Berger
According to an analysis by Gallup, "President Barack Obama earned a 46.8% average approval rating in his
10th quarter in office ending July 19, essentially unchanged from the
9th quarter and still above his record-low 7th quarter. The president's latest quarterly average is based on Gallup Daily
tracking from April 20 through July 19. Across that time, his three-day
rolling average approval ratings have been as high as 53% and as low as
" . . . Obama is in the company of several former elected presidents who averaged sub-50% approval during their 10th quarters in office. This includes three former presidents who won
re-election -- Bill Clinton, Richard Nixon, and Ronald Reagan -- and
one, Jimmy Carter, who lost. On the other hand, of the three presidents
with exceptionally high average approvals at this stage, George H.W.
Bush was ultimately defeated, while Dwight Eisenhower and George W. Bush
prevailed." Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Jul 26, 2011 at 12:26 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Gallup survey, most "Americans name the economy and unemployment/jobs as the most
important problems facing the nation, as they have all year, despite the
dominant focus in Washington on the federal debt ceiling. The deficit
comes in third as the top problem, followed by dissatisfaction with
government in general, healthcare, and concerns about wars." Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Jul 25, 2011 at 2:20 AM by Maurice Berger
In what could spell serious trouble for the President's reelection effort next year, A new Pew Research survey reports that the GOP has made significant gains among white voters in the three years since Barack Obama was elected president. In 2008, the Republicans could claim a 2% lead among whites--46% to 44%. Today, that lead has expanded to a whopping +13% lead today, 52% to 39%. To put these numbers in perspective, Obama won the 2008 race with only 43% of the white vote. Any significant diminution of that number would greatly hamper his reelection effort.
Posted Jul 22, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released Public Policy Polling national survey reports that Rep. Michele Bachmann has moved into a tiny, statistically insignificant, lead among likely Republican voters in the GOP presidential race. Bachmann tops the field with 21%, followed by Mitt Romney at 20%, Rick Perry at
12%, Herman Cain at 11%, Ron Paul at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Tim
Pawlenty at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 3%.
Posted Jul 21, 2011 at 2:15 AM by Maurice Berger
A CBS News poll reports that Americans "are unimpressed with their political leaders' handling of the
debt ceiling crisis." But their is a big divide between public perceptions of the GOP vs the President's handling of the crisis. Just 21% approve of Republican congressional
resistance to raising taxes; a whopping 71% disapprove. 43%, however, approve of President Obama's
handling of the negotiations. Still, 48% said they
disapproved. So overall, the public appears to have little patience for the way these negotiations are being handled.
Posted Jul 20, 2011 at 12:58 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released American Research Group poll in South Carolina reports that Mitt Romney holds a significant lead among likely Republican
primary voters with 25%, followed by Sarah Palin at 16%, Michele
Bachmann at 13%, Herman Cain at 10% and Rudy Giuliani and Rick Perry
both at 6%,
Posted Jul 19, 2011 at 1:24 AM by Maurice Berger
A Gallup survey of registered voters reports that they are "more likely
to vote for the Republican Party's candidate for president" than for
President Obama in next year's election. The generic GOP candidate leads by a significant margin: 47% to 39%. Early surveys this year have indicated a much more evenly divided electorate.
Posted Jul 18, 2011 at 1:08 AM by Maurice Berger
According to the most recent analysis by Gallup, "President Barack Obama's job approval rating averaged 46% in June,
down from 50% in May but similar to his ratings from February through
April. Obama's strongest support continues to come from blacks (86%), adults
aged 18 to 29 (54%), those living in the East (53%), and Hispanics
(52%). This is in addition to 81% approval from fellow Democrats (as
well as 75% from liberals and 55% from moderates, not shown here). Republicans (14%), conservatives (24%), whites (38%), seniors (39%),
and those living in the South (40%) are the least likely to approve of
Obama. PollTrack believes that the president average approval rating of 46% places him below the threshold for likely reelection. We will be watching these numbers closely as we move into the 2012 cycle.
Posted Jul 15, 2011 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger
Another poll of Iowa Republicans, this one from Magellan Strategies reports that Michele Bachmann holds a significant lead among likely caucus attendees
with 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 16%, Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain
at 8%, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich at 5% and Rick Santorum at 3%. 24% of respondents remain undecided. A Mason-Dixon poll in the state reports that Michele Bachmann leads among likely caucus-goers--though by a smaller margin--with
32%, followed by Mitt Romney at 29%, Tim Pawlenty at 7% and Rick
Santorum at 6%.
Posted Jul 14, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger
Some bad news and some good news for the President. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll reports that the number of Americans who believe the country is on the wrong track rose to 63% this month. Yet, this negative world view does not apparently extend to President Obama, who continues to hold an approval rating in the poll at a respectable 49%.
Posted Jul 13, 2011 at 1:48 AM by Maurice Berger
With Pennsylvania a must win for any Democratic candidate for president, it looks as if President Obama's reelection could be in jeopardy. A just released Public Policy Polling survey in Pennsylvania reports that the state is "looking more and more like it could be a tough hold" for the Democrats in 2012. PPP continues: "[Obama's] approval rating in the state continues to be under water at
46/48... Obama's poll numbers are worse in Pennsylvania than they are in
places like Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and New Mexico,
all states that went Republican in 2004 even as Pennsylvania voted
Democratic. The President's persistently poor numbers in a state that's
gone Democratic in every Presidential election for the last 24 years
probably make Pennsylvania the place where Obama should be most
concerned about his current standing."
Posted Jul 12, 2011 at 2:18 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released survey for the Iowa Republican reports that Michele Bachmann now leads the pack of 2012 GOP presidential contenders with 25%, followed by Mitt Romney at 21%, Tim Pawlenty and
Herman Cain at 9%, Ron Paul at 6%, Newt Gingrich at 4%, Rick Santorum
at 2% and John Hunstman at 1%.
Posted Jul 11, 2011 at 1:20 AM by Maurice Berger
In what amounts to another warning sign for incumbents in the 2012 cycle, a new Time/Aspen Ideas Festival poll reports that a whopping 71% of Americans, including a majority of every major demographic
group other than African Americans, see the United States as worse off
now than it was a decade ago.
Posted Jul 08, 2011 at 1:39 AM by Maurice Berger
While many in the GOP are urging NJ Governor Chris Christie to run for the 2012 nomination for president, he remains relatively unpopular in his home state. A Bloomberg New Jersey poll reports that 51% of New Jersey
residents say they wouldn't support Gov. Chris Christie for a
second term, "disapproving of his choices on a range of policy
and personal issues, from killing a commuter tunnel to using a
state-police helicopter to attend his son's baseball game."
Posted Jul 07, 2011 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released Public Policy Polling survey in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the GOP
presidential primary with 25%. The news is that the second placed candidate, Michele Bachmann, has surged in recent weeks, and now stands at 18%. Sarah
Palin comes in at 11%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry and Herman Cain at 7%, John
Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty at 6% and Newt Gingrich at 4%. According to PPP: "Bachmann's surge in New Hampshire is being built on the
back of the Tea Party. Among voters identifying themselves as members of
that movement she's leading the way at 25% with Palin and Romney tying
for second at 16%, and Cain also placing in double digits at 11%."
Posted Jul 06, 2011 at 2:00 AM by Maurice Berger
A new WMUR Granite State Poll in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney maintains a huge lead in the 2012 GOP presidential primary: He now stands in the survey at 35%, followed by
Michele Bachmann at 12%, Ron Paul at 7%, Rudy Giuliani at 7%, Rick
Perry at 4%, Tim Pawlenty and Sarah Palin at 3%, and Jon Huntsman and
Herman Cain at 2%.
Posted Jul 05, 2011 at 2:43 AM by Maurice Berger
A Fox News poll reports that Mitt Romney leads the quest for the 2012 GOP nomination for president with 18%,
followed by Rick Perry at 13%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rudy Giuliani at
10%, Sarah Palin at 8%, Ron Paul at 7% and Herman Cain at 5%. The remaining candidates get less than 5% combined of the vote.
Posted Jul 03, 2011 at 3:25 AM by Maurice Berger
Have a happy July 4th weekend. We'll be back with election coverage on Tuesday, 5 July.
Posted Jul 01, 2011 at 1:59 AM by Maurice Berger
Could the GOP Primary in Florida be decisive in next year's Republican quest for the nomination for president? A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida reports that Mitt Romney has a double digit lead for the GOP presidential nomination. He also maintains the lead in other early voting states, such as New Hampshire and (by a whisker), Iowa. In Florida, Romney
leads with 27%, followed by Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann at 17%,
Herman Cain at 10%, Newt Gingrich at 8%, Ron Paul at 7%, Tim Pawlenty
at 4% and Jon Huntsman at 2%.