Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Election 2012: Romney Leads In Iowa

Posted Sep 30, 2011 at 12:15 AM by Maurice Berger

In a sign that Iowa GOP voters, who tend to be more socially conservative the other early primary and caucus states, are more interested in winning against President Obama than ideological purity, a new American Research Group poll in the state reports that Mitt Romney now leads the GOP presidential field with 21%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 15%, Rick Perry at 14%, and Ron Paul at 12%. All other candidates are in the single digits.

Election 2012: Romney Retakes National Lead

Posted Sep 29, 2011 at 12:57 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Fox News poll reports a significant drop in support for Rick Perry nationally among GOP voters. Mitt Romney now leads the Republican presidential field with 23%, followed by Rick Perry at 19% and Herman Cain at 17%. Within the past 30-days, Romney is up by +1%, Perry is down -10% and Cain is up +6%. In the Fox poll, Newt Gingrich comes in at 11%, Ron Paul is at 6% and Michele Bachmann is at 3%.

Americans Remain Pessimistic Over Economy

Posted Sep 28, 2011 at 1:49 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Gallup reports that Americans remain largely pessimistic about the economy: "Three in four Americans assess the U.S. economy as no better than a year ago, with 35% saying it is about the same and 42% saying it is worse. Looking ahead to a year from now, Americans remain largely pessimistic, with 61% expecting economic conditions to be similar to now, or worse." Here is Gallup's chart:

Do you think the U.S. economy is fully recovered, better than it was a year ago but not fully recovered, about the same as a year ago, or worse than it was a year ago? (Thinking about one year from now, do you think the U.S. economy will be ... ?) September 2011 results

Election 2012: Perry Continues To Lead Nationally

Posted Sep 27, 2011 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by CNN/Opinion Research survey reports that Rick Perry continues to lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Perry is ahead, with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Newt Gingrich at 11%, Herman Cain at 9%, Ron Paul at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Rick Santorum at 3% and Jon Huntsman at 1%. In general election match ups, however, Romney fares best against President Obama, trailing by just one point, 49% to 48%; Obama holds a five point lead over Perry, 51% to 46%.

Congressional Approval At All Time Low

Posted Sep 26, 2011 at 12:51 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by CBS News/New York Times reports that just 12% of Americans "approve of the job Congress is doing -- the same as the lowest percentage recorded in this poll, reached in October 2008, right before the November elections."

Florida: GOP Insiders See Romney As Strongest Candidate Against Obama

Posted Sep 23, 2011 at 12:10 AM by Maurice Berger

What do Democratic and GOP insiders in Florida think of the GOP field and its chances against a sitting Democratic president? A new survey by St. Petersburg Times Florida Insider--which polled campaign consultants, lobbyists, activists --reports that two thirds of Democrats and two thirds of Republicans think Mitt Romney is a stronger general election candidate than Rick Perry. In the end, 50% of the Republican believe Romney will win the GOP primary in Florida next year, while 41% predicted Perry.

Election 2012: Who's Ahead In The GOP Prsidential Primary?

Posted Sep 22, 2011 at 12:38 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Florida Times-Union/Insider Advantage in Florida reports that Rick Perry now leads Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential primary race by nine points, 29% to 20%. All other candidates are in the single digits.

Election 2012: Obama Holds Wide Lead In Pennsylvania

Posted Sep 21, 2011 at 12:11 AM by Maurice Berger

With his approval rating fairly low in Pennsylvania, it can only be seen as good news for President Obama that in a just released Magellan Strategies survey in Pennsylvania finds President Obama he now holds a comfortable lead pover potential Republican challengers Mitt Romney by 50% to 40%, and Rick Perry by 52% to 37%. PollTrack now rates the state "Leaning Democratic."

Perry Holds On To National Lead

Posted Sep 20, 2011 at 2:03 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by CBS News/New York Times poll, Rick Perry continues to lead Mitt Romney nationally in the GOP presidential race, 23% to 16%. well behind, Newt Gingrich comes in at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 7%, Herman Cain at 5%, Ron Paul at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 1%, Rick Santorum at 1%.

Hillary Clinton Maintains High Favorability Rating

Posted Sep 19, 2011 at 1:24 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a survey by Bloomberg poll, 64% of Americans maintain a favorable view of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The poll also reports that 34% of respondents are "suffering a form of buyer's remorse," saying the U.S. would be better off now if she had become president in 2008 instead of Barack Obama.

Most Americans Believe In Global Warning

Posted Sep 16, 2011 at 1:14 AM by Maurice Berger

While a number of Republican candidates for president reject the idea of global warming, most Americans believe in it. A survey Yale University survey reports that 53% of Republicans, 71% of independents and 78% of Democrats said they believe global warming is real. Interestingly, on 34% of who self-identify as members of the Tea Party believe in global warming; 53% do not.

Perry Maintains Wide National Lead

Posted Sep 15, 2011 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Rick Perry continues to hold a significant lead over Mitt Romney nationally in the Republican presidential race, 31% to 18%. As for the other candidates, Ron Paul comes in at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 9%, Herman Cain at 8%, and Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum both at 2%.

Gallup: Americans Question War on Terrorism

Posted Sep 14, 2011 at 1:41 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup survey, Americans' views on who is winning the war on terrorism are almost identical now to where they were in October 2001. "Americans are roughly evenly split, 46% to 42%, between the view that the U.S. and its allies are winning the war on terrorism and the view that neither the U.S. nor the terrorists are winning. Despite the similarity between views now and 10 years ago, there has been a great deal of change in the intervening time, including points in 2002 and 2003 when two-thirds of the public felt that the U.S. was winning."

Another Poll Shows Perry In Lead For GOP Nomination

Posted Sep 13, 2011 at 1:56 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a survey by Economist/YouGov, Rick Perry continues to maintain a solid lead for the GOP presidential nomination at 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 13%, Rudy Giuliani at 9%, and Sarah Palin at 8%, Ron Paul at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 5% and Herman Cain at 5%.

PollTrack Analysis: Tomorrow's Special Election in NY-9

Posted Sep 12, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

Tomorrow's special election in New York's 9th congressional district, for the seat vacated by Rep. Anthony Weiner who resigned earlier this year, a new Siena poll reports that the Republican candidate, Robert Turner, now holds a six point lead over David Weprin, 50% to 44%. If Turner should win in this vastly Democratic district, Weprin's loss may hold real implications for next year's election cycle. Anecdotal reporting suggests that some Democrats, upset with the Obama administration, may intend to send a message to the president by voting for Turner. The problem for the Democrats: if the heavily Democratic, New York district tips into the Republican column, then far closer swing states, such as Florida, Ohio, and even Pennsylvania--Obama's approval in the three states is somewhere in the mid to high 30s--are undoubtedly in play. The president's approval numbers at this point remain problematic. Two previous incumbents with relatively low numbers in their third year, but who went on to win reelection--Reagan and Clinton--were at this point in their presidency recovering politically, each nearing the 50% mark. Obama's present approval number averages 44%, far below the 48% thought to be a good marker of potential reelection. Stay tuned.


Gallup: Obama Approval Lagging

Posted Sep 09, 2011 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger

An assessment of the President's August poll numbers by Gallup reports that Obama's approval rating has hit a new low. Just 41% approved of the president's overall job performance in August (a three point drop from July). He also received term-low monthly approval ratings from both Hispanics (48%) and whites (33%) and tied his lowest rating from blacks (84%).

Election 2012: Perry Leads In Nevada

Posted Sep 08, 2011 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Magellan Strategies in Nevada reports that Rick Perry leads Mitt Romney by five points, 29% to 24%, in on e of the first states to vote in the 2012 contest for the GOP nomination. The rest of the field trails, with Herman Cain at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Ron Paul at 6%, Newt Gingrich at 5%, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman at 1% each. 19% are undecided.

Election 2012: Obama Lags In Pennsylvania

Posted Sep 07, 2011 at 1:49 AM by Maurice Berger

In numbers that may well bode poorly for the President, a new Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania reports that his approval rating in the state is just 34%. Since PA is key presidential battleground state, it will be imperative for the Democrat to improve his standing in a state that has gone with the Democrat in every election since 1992.

Election 2012: Perry Leads GOP Pack Nationally

Posted Sep 06, 2011 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Fox News reports that Rick Perry continues to lead the Republican presidential field nationally with 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%. No other candidate garners double-digit support.

We'll Return After Labor Day, on Tuesday 6 September!

Posted Sep 04, 2011 at 2:55 AM by Maurice Berger

We're off to celebrate the Labor Day holiday. We will be back on Tuesday, 6 September will full polling analysis of the 2012 Election Cycle.

Election 2012: Obama In Trouble In PA?

Posted Sep 02, 2011 at 1:53 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Muhlenberg College poll suggests that President Obama's reelection effort may be in trouble in Pennsylvania. His approval rate has dropped to 35% in the key swing state. The poll's analysis concludes that there may be room for movement in the poll: "31% of Pennsylvanians say their vote in November 2012 will depend on who the Republican candidate is. And Obama still slightly edges out an anonymous GOP contender 36 percent to 31%." Nevertheless, with the incumbent polling well below that 48% to 50% threshold, the numbers suggest a difficult race for Obama in 2012. 

Serious Ebb In Democratic Voter Enthusiasm

Posted Sep 01, 2011 at 12:36 AM by Maurice Berger

In what has very serious implications for President Obama's reelection chances, a new survey by Public Policy Polling survey reports a considerable ebb of Democratic enthusiasm about voting in next year's election. Just 48% of Democrats--a new low--say they were "very excited" about voting in 2012.  In 13 previous polls, the average level was 57%. It had risen as high as 65% (during the 2008 presidential election) and only twice had the number dropped below 55%.