Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Election 2012: Cain Leads Nationally

Posted Oct 31, 2011 at 2:51 AM by Maurice Berger

While several recent polls have showed Mitt Romney leading in some of the early 2012 caucus and primary states, a nw survey by the Economist/YouGov reports that Herman Cain now leads the Republican presidential field nationally with 28%, followed by Romney at 24%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 7%. All other candidates are below 5%. The poll also suggests that Romney mat be the stronger challenger against the president next fall: in general election match ups, Obama leads Romney, 48% to 45%, bests Cain, 48% to 40%, and overwhelms Perry 48% to 38%.

 

 

Election 2012: Romney Ahead Or Tied In Early Voiting States

Posted Oct 28, 2011 at 2:03 AM by Maurice Berger

A new multi-state survey by CNN/Time/Opinion Research reports that Mitt Romney remains the clear front-runner in New Hampshire, leads in Florida, and is statistically tied for the top spot with Herman Cain in Iowa and South Carolina.

Iowa: Romney leads Cain 24 to 21%, followed by Paul at 12%, Perry at 10%, Gingrich at 10%, and Bachmann at 6%.

New Hampshire: Romney leads Cain 40 to 13%, followed by Paul at 12%, Huntsman at 6%, Gingrich at 5%, and Perry at 4%.

South Carolina: Romney leads Cain 25 to 23%, followed by Paul at 12%, Perry at 11%, Gingrich at 8%, and Bachmann at 4%,

Florida: Romney leads Cain 30 to 18%, followed Gingrich at 9%, Perry at 9%, Paul at 6% and Bachmann at 4%.

Election 2012: Romney Holds Large Lead In Nevada

Posted Oct 27, 2011 at 1:13 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Magellan Strategies in Nevada reports that Mitt Romney holds a significant lead over Herman Cain, 38% to 26%, in the GOP nomination context, with Newt Gingrich in third at 16%, Ron Paul at 7%, Rick Perry at 5%, Michele Bachmann at 2%, Rick Santorum at 1% and Jon Huntsman at 1%.

Majority Of Americans Favor Abolishing Electoral College

Posted Oct 26, 2011 at 4:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Gallup reports that 62% of Americans favor amending the U.S. Constitution to replace the Electoral College with direct election presidents via a popular vote system. Just 35% say they would keep the Electoral College .

For First Time, Majority Blame Obama For Bad Economy

Posted Oct 24, 2011 at 10:54 PM by Maurice Berger

A poll USA Today/Gallup indicates that a majority of Americans--for the first time--blame President Obama for the nation's economic problems. 53% believe that Obama deserves "a great deal" or a "moderate amount" of the blame for the economic problems that the country currently faces. Nevertheless, an even larger number -- 69% -- believe that former President George Bush deserves a "great deal" or a "moderate amount" of blame for the economy.

50% of Americans Believe That Obama Doesn't Deserve Reelection

Posted Oct 24, 2011 at 2:41 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by AP-GfK reports that 50% of Americans believe that President Obama does not deserve re-election. Still, Obama runs about even or slightly ahead of all three men in hypothetical matchups with possible GOP nominees, Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, or Rick Perry. 

Election 2012: Romney Continues To Lead Nationally

Posted Oct 21, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by AP-GfK reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the Republican presidential field nationally with 30%, followed by Herman Cain at 26%, Rick Perry at 13%, Ron Paul at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 4%, Jon Huntsman at 2% and Rick Santorum at 2%.

Election 2012: Romney Leads In Nevada

Posted Oct 20, 2011 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger

In another important early voting state, Nevada, Mitt Romney now leads the GOP field with 31%, followed by Herman Cain at 26% and Rick Perry at 12%. According to the survey by Project New West, Newt Gingrich comes in at 7%, Ron Paul at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 4%, Rick Santorum at 2% and Jon Huntsman at 1%.

Election 2012: Romney Maintains Lead in New Hampshire

Posted Oct 19, 2011 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by InsiderAdvantage/Newsmax in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney holds a solid lead over Herman Cain in the GOP presidential race, 39% to 24%; Ron Paul come in third at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Newt Gingrich at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 5% and Rick Perry at 2%.

Election 2012: Cain With Solid Lead In Iowa

Posted Oct 18, 2011 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by InsiderAdvantage/Newsmax in Iowa reports that Herman Cain holds a solid lead over Mitt Romney, 26%, followed to 18%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 12%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Ron Paul at 10% and Rick Perry at 6%.

Consumer Confidence Index: Electoral Doom For The President?

Posted Oct 17, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

In yet another indicator of an icreasingly difficult reelection race for the president in 2012, Mark McKinnon observes that "the average consumer confidence index when a president running for reelection wins is 95. When they lose, it's 76. Today the number is 55." Still, the present-day economic situation is highly unusual in that most Americans continue to blame the bad economy on forces outside of Obama's control.

A just released survey by CBS News poll reports that 69% of Americans believe President Obama has not made real progress in fixing the economy; 25% say he has made real progress. Yet, on the question of who to blame for the shaky economy, most--22%--cited the Bush administration, followed by Wall Street at 16%, Congress at 15% and then the Obama administration at 12%. One in 10 said "all of the above. Will this perception help President Obama in his quest for reelection. PollTrack thinks it's too early to tell. 

Cain With Slight Lead In South Carolina

Posted Oct 14, 2011 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by the American Research Group in South Carolina reports that Herman Cain has a tiny lead over Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential primary field: Cain is at 26%, followed closely by Mitt Romney at 25%. Rick Perry is third at 15%.

PPP: Cain With National Lead

Posted Oct 13, 2011 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Herman Cain has now taken the national lead over Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential race, 30% to 22%, with Newt Gingrich at 15% and Rick Perry at 14%.The rest of the field remain in the single digits: Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul are tied for 5th at 5%, Jon Huntsman 7th at 2%, Rick Santorum 8th at 1%, and Gary Johnson 9th with less than 1%.

Election 2012: Cain Takes Lead In Iowa

Posted Oct 12, 2011 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Herman Cain has taken the lead in the Republican presidential race in Iowa with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 9%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 8% and Rick Santorum at 5%.

GOP Nomination 2012: Romney Leads Nationally

Posted Oct 11, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Washington Post/Bloomberg national reports that Mitt Romney now leads Herman Cain among likely Republican voters, 24% to 16%, with Rick Perry in third at 13%. All other candidates are in the single digits, except Jon Huntsman, who gets zero support.

Election 2012: Romney Surges In New Hampshire

Posted Oct 10, 2011 at 12:50 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by WMUR9 Granite State reports that Mitt Romney has surged ahead of the Republican presidential field in New Hampshire. Romney leads with 42%. Herman Cain, in second place, doesn't even come close at 13%. Ron Paul is at 11%, Rudy Giuliani at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 8%, Rick Perry at 4% and Newt Gingrich at 4%.

Majority of American Expect Obama Not To Be Reelected

Posted Oct 07, 2011 at 2:02 AM by Maurice Berger

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that 55% of those surveyed believe President Obama will not be reelected next year, while 37% say he'll win. This kind of pessimism about a president's reelection prospects can serve as a self-fulfilling prophecy, both spurring on GOP support and dispiriting Democrats, whose lack of enthusiasm may result in lower voter turn out.

CBS News Poll: Herman Cain Campaign Gaining Traction?

Posted Oct 05, 2011 at 1:46 AM by Maurice Berger

In another sign that Herman Cain's quest for the 2012 GOP nomination for president may be gaining traction, a new CBS News poll reports that Herman Cain has moved into a tie with Mitt Romney at the top of the pack of presidential candidates with 17% each, while Rick Perry has fallen to just 12%.

Election 2012: Perry's Numbers Collapse In Florida

Posted Oct 04, 2011 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger

A new War Room Logistics (R) survey in Florida reports that Rick Perry's numbers in the state have taken a -16% nose dive. The poll finds Mitt Romney leading the Republican presidential field with 28% among likely voters, followed by Herman Cain at 24%, Newt Gingrich at 10% and Rick Perry at 9%. PollTrack believes that the key number here is not Romney's or Perry's, but Cain who is now a close second, after winning the Florida Straw Poll last week. Cain's strong showing here--and his uptick nationally--could suggest that he is becoming a real contender in the GOP presidential nomination race.

Dissatisfaction With Government At Record High In US

Posted Oct 03, 2011 at 12:41 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Gallup survey reports that a "record-high 81% of Americans are dissatisfied with the way the country is being governed, adding to negativity that has been building over the past 10 years." Here is Gallup's historical chart:

Trend: Reaction to How the Nation Is Being Governed