Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

PollTrack: Romney No Longer The Clear Favorite To Win GOP Nomination

Posted Nov 30, 2011 at 1:51 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite polls showing Mitt Romney way ahead in New Hampshire, PollTrack's analysis of the early voting states suggests a less clear path to victory for Romney. As one pollster notes in New Hampshire (WMUR/UNH): "Just 16% of . . . likely primary voters say they know who they are voting for. So, while Romney might like his commanding lead right now, there is no telling where 84% of voters will go in the six remaining weeks before the primary." Indeed, the former Massachusetts governor now trails Newt Gingrich in most of the early voting states (or, as in Florida, is locked in a virtual tie with Gingrich). Romney's inability to seal the deal with Republican voters is telling.

Too moderate for the far right wing of the party--especially for Tea Party supporters--and too opportunistic in the eyes of even more moderate Republican voters, Romney appears to be unable to win the trust of a majority of GOP voters (or even a clear plurality). While it is now likely that the GOP primary season will drag on well into the early summer of 2012, it is PollTrack's opinion that Romney is no longer the clear frontrunner. Indeed, with major support now breaking Gingrich's way--and nearly all national surveys of GOP voters showing him in the lead--Gingrich may be breaking away from the pack. And as under-performing ultra-conservative candidates such as Cain, Bachmann, and Santorum begin dropping out of the race, it is far more likely that their votes will go to Gingrich and not Romney. Stay tuned.

Election 2012: Another Poll Shows Gingrich In The Lead

Posted Nov 29, 2011 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll, this one from Majority Opinion Research reports that Newt Gingrich holds a considerable lead over Mitt Romney, 32% to 23%. In the poll, Herman Cain comes in at 14%, Ron Paul at 6%, Rick Perry 5%, Michele Bachmann 4%, Jon Huntsman 3%, "someone else" at 4%, and no opinion at 11%.

Another Poll Shows Romney Way Ahead In New Hampshire

Posted Nov 28, 2011 at 1:15 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by WMUR/UNH in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the GOP presidential race by a large margin: 42%. His closest rival, Newt Gingrich is at 15%, while Ron Paul comes in at 12% and Jon Huntsman at 8%.

Gingrich More Electable Than Romney?

Posted Nov 25, 2011 at 2:02 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by McClatchy-Marist reports that Newt Gingrich is the strongest Republican presidential candidate when matched head to head against President Obama. Obama leads Gingrich by two points, 47% to 45%; he bests Mitt Romney by 4 points, 49% to 44%; and Ron Paul by 8 points, 49% to 41%.

Romney Way Ahead In New Hampshire

Posted Nov 23, 2011 at 12:48 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Suffolk University/7NEWS in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney is way ahead of the GOP field with 41%, followed by Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich at 14%. In the only state where Jon Huntsman shows any strength, the former Utah governor comes in at 9%; Herman receives 8%, Rick Santorum 3%, Rick Perry 2%, and Michele Bachmann 1%.

Another Poll Shows Gingrich In The Lead Nationally

Posted Nov 22, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll, this one by Reuters/Ipsos, reports that Newt Gingrich now leads the Republican presidential field nationally with 24%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Herman Cain at 12% and Rick Perry at 10%.

Romney Just Ahead of Gingrich In New Hampshire; Well Behind Gingrich in Iowa

Posted Nov 21, 2011 at 1:26 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Magellan Strategies in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney now barely leads Newt Gingrich among GOP presidential primary voters, 29% to 27%. In the survey, Ron Paul comes in at 16%, Herman Cain at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 2%, Rick Perry at 2% and Rick Santorum at 1%. In Iowa, a new Rasmussen survey reports that Newt Gingrich holds a considerable lead among likely GOP caucus-goers with 32%, followed by former Mitt Romney at 19%, Herman Cain at 13%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 6% and Michele Bachmann at 6%.

Two Polls Report Gingrich Leading Nationally

Posted Nov 18, 2011 at 1:05 AM by Maurice Berger

Two polls now show Newt Gingrich leading the GOP pack nationally. An Economist/YouGov reports that Gingrich leading is ahead nationally with 23%, followed closely by Herman Cain at 21% and Mitt Romney at 19%. Ron Paul comes in at 7%, Rick Perry at 6%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, Rick Santorum at 2% and Gary Johnson at 1%. A Fox News pollalso shows Gingrich in the lead, with 23%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22% and Herman Cain at 15%. Ron Paul come in at 8%, Rick Perry at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, and Rick Santorum at 2%.

Election 2012: Romney Way Ahead In New Hampshire

Posted Nov 17, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Bloomberg in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney holds a huge lead over his GOP presidential rivals with 40%, followed by Ron Paul at 17% and Newt Gingrich at 10%. All the other candidates are below 10%.

Cain Maintains Leads In Iowa and South Carolina

Posted Nov 16, 2011 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite Allegations of sexual misconduct, Herman Cain maintains his lead in two early Republican nomination contests. According to two new surveys by Insider Advantage, Cain leads in Iowa with 23%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19%, Newt Gingrich at 15%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick Perry at 9% and Michele Bachmann at 5%. In another key state, South Carolina, Cain leads with 26%, followed by Gingrich at 19%, Romney at 16%, Perry at 6%, Bachmann at 5%, Ron Paul at 3% and Rick Santorum at 1%.

Romney and Cain Maintain Leads In Early States

Posted Nov 15, 2011 at 12:47 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a series of surveys by GS Strategy, Mitt Romney and Herman Cain maintain leads in early GOP voting states. In Iowa, Cain leads Romney, 25% to 22%; the other candidates are at single digits. In New Hampshire, Romney maintains a huge lead, with 43% to Cain's 18%. In South Carolina, Cain just edges Romney in a statistical tie, 28% to 27%.

Election 2012: Romney Retakes National Lead

Posted Nov 14, 2011 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by Economist/YouGov, Mitt Romney has retaken his position atop the GOP presidential field with 24%, followed by Herman Cain at 21% and Newt Gingrich at 16%. Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul and Rick Perry are all tied for forth at 7%, in front of Jon Huntsman at 5% and Rick Santorum at 2%.

Election 2012: Obama Improves Competitive Standing

Posted Nov 11, 2011 at 12:41 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Gallup reports that President Obama's relative standing against a generic Republican candidate has improved considerably since the early fall. He now leads 43% to 42%. In Gallup's September and October polls, Obama trailed 38% to 46%. Gallup writes: "The evenness of independents' preferences marks a significant change from September and October, when independents favored the Republican candidate by a significant margin. The current pattern more closely resembles where independents were earlier this year, when Obama and the Republican were evenly matched... The changes in this survey matchup between Obama and a generic Republican candidate no doubt foreshadow the potential political volatility to come over the next 12 months."

Election 2012: Republicans More Enthusiastic About Voting

Posted Nov 10, 2011 at 1:05 AM by Maurice Berger

In what bodes as a potential problem for Democrats overall in next year's federal election, a new survey by Gallup reports that Republican voters are more likely to express enthusiasm about voting in next year's presidential election. On the national level, 56% of registered GOP voters and 48% of Democratic voters are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting. In 12 key swing states, the Republican advantage is even greater: 59% to 48%.

Cain Retains Strength Nationally

Posted Nov 09, 2011 at 1:17 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Washington Post-ABC News reports that Herman Cain holds his own nationally, despite allegations of sexual impropriety: "More than half of potential Republican voters say the controversy is not serious, fewer than a quarter say it makes them less likely to support Cain, and he's running essentially evenly with Mitt Romney for the Republican presidential nomination." In the poll, Romney edges Cain nationally among Republican voters, 24% to 23%, a virtual tie. Rick Perry trails with 13% followed by Newt Gingrich at 12%.

Election 2012: Cain and Romney Tied Nationally Among GOP Voters

Posted Nov 08, 2011 at 3:32 AM by Maurice Berger

 

A new poll by USA Today/Gallup reports that Herman Cain and Mitt Romney tied for the lead nationally among Republican voters at 21% each. Newt Gingrich is in third place at 12%, just ahead of Rick Perry at 11%. The other candidates fail to rise above single digits.

Election 2012: Obama Approval Up Slightly

Posted Nov 07, 2011 at 12:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Reuters/Ipsos reports that President Obama's approval rating is up slightly, now at 49%, with disapproval at 50%. PollTrack's aggregate numbers alas show slight improvement: with his approval rating at 46% (up from 44% last month) and a disapproval number at 50.8%.

Americans Growing Weary Of Health Care Legislation

Posted Nov 04, 2011 at 4:22 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation reports that the health care reform law's popularity has hit an all-time low with Americans.
Only 34% of those surveyed had a favorable view of the legislation, while 51% held an unfavorable view.

Election 2012: Early GOP Voting Calendar Set

Posted Nov 03, 2011 at 3:25 AM by Maurice Berger

For those of you, like PollTrack, interesting in following voter sentiment on the ground, here is the voting schedule of the first five states in the Republican nominating process:

January 3: Iowa

January 10: New Hampshire

January 21: South Carolina

January 31: Florida

February 4: Nevada

Cain And Romney Virtually Tied In Iowa Poll

Posted Nov 01, 2011 at 11:34 PM by Maurice Berger

The prestigious (and often remarkably accurate) Des Moines Register Iowa poll suggests that the race to win the Iowa Caucus may be very close. The survey reports that Herman Cain and Mitt are virtually tied at this poinr in the race: Cain edges Romney, 23% to 22%, with Ron Paul at 12%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Rick Perry at 7%, Rick Santorum at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 1%.