Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Election 2012: Close Race In Iowa?

Posted Dec 30, 2011 at 2:33 AM by Maurice Berger

A series of new polls suggests that the race to win the GOP Iowa Caucus may indeed be very close. A survey by InsiderAdvantage reports that the race is deadlocked, with Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul tied at 17% support each. Rick Santorum, whose numbers in Iowa have been rising in recent days, comes in at 13%, Michele Bachmann at 12%, Rick Perry at 11% and Jon Huntsman at 3%. Two other polls paint a similar picture of a very close race: American Research Group poll shows Romney leading with 22%, followed by Gingrich at 17%, Paul at 16% and Santorum at 11%; Rasmussen reports that Romney edgies Paul, 23% to 22%, with Santorum at 16% and Gingrich and Perry at 13% each.

Gallup: Most Admired Men and Women of 2011

Posted Dec 29, 2011 at 2:06 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Gallup, reports that "Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama continue to be named by Americans as the Most Admired Woman and Most Admired Man living today in any part of the world. Clinton has been the Most Admired Woman each of the last 10 years, and Obama has been the Most Admired Man four years in a row. Oprah Winfrey, Michelle Obama, Sarah Palin, and Condoleezza Rice round out the top five Most Admired women, while the top five Most Admired men also include George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Billy Graham, and Warren Buffett." Here is Gallup's chart: 

Most Admired Woman, 2011

Most Admired Man, 2011

PPP Survey: Paul Leads In Iowa

Posted Dec 28, 2011 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Ron Paul maintains a modest lead over Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential race, 24% to 20%, with Newt Gingrich in third place at 13%. Michele Bachmann comes in at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.

Gallup Tracking: Gingrich Continues To Hold slight National Lead

Posted Dec 27, 2011 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger

According to the latest tracking poll from Gallup Newt Gingrich continues to hold a slight lead nationally among Republican voters with 26%, followed by Mitt Romney at 23%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick Perry at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Rick Santorum at 3% and Jon Huntsman at 1%. Factoring in other polls, PollTrack now believes that Gingrich's advantage nationally will not hold through the Iowa caucus on 8 January. Stay tuned.

Election 2012: Three GOP Candidates Bunched At The Top

Posted Dec 26, 2011 at 2:21 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll released by American Research Group in Iowa reports a crowded field at top, with three candidates virtually tied for the lead: Ron Paul leads the GOP presidential field with 21%, followed closely by Mitt Romney at 20% and Newt Gingrich at 19%. As for the rest, they're all in the singles digits, with Rick Perry coming in at 9%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 6% and Rick Santorum at 4%.

Election 2012: Can Romney Wrap It Up Early

Posted Dec 23, 2011 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger

With the implosion of yet another GOP candidate (Newt Gingrich) and the ascendance of Mitt Romney to the top of the pack in Iowa, the question now on the table is whether Romney will win the nomination and wrap it up early. With several polls reporting a significant lead for Romney in New Hampshire--and now leading in Iowa (A Rasmussen survey in Iowa shows Romney leading Ron Paul, 25% to 20%)--PollTrack thinks that this could be a possibility, though Gingrich continues to lead in other early (and more conservative) voting states, such as South Carolina and (marginally) Florida. Stay tuned.

(The Rasmussen Poll also shows Newt Gingrich at 17%, Rick Perry at 10%, Rick Santorum at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 4%.)

Election 2012: Iowa Too Close To Call

Posted Dec 22, 2011 at 3:13 AM by Maurice Berger

With Newt Gingrich the newest GOP contender to implode in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, the race for the Iowa caucus is now too close to call. A poll from We Ask America reports a very competitive race the Iowa. Ron Paul leads with 19%, followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Gingrich at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 15%, Rick Perry at 11%, Rick Santorum at 9% and Jon Huntsman at 4%. Another poll, this one from Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG shows a very close race for the top two contenders--Paul with 28%, followed by Gingrich at 25%--with Romney further behind at 18%, Rick Perry at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 7% and Rick Santorum at 5%.

President Obama's Approval Rating Rebounds

Posted Dec 21, 2011 at 12:56 AM by Maurice Berger

In a report that spells good news for President Obama, his job approval rating has risen to a near majority--49%--according to a just released survey by ABC News/Washington Post  The survey notes that this is Obama's "best showing since spring, and one, if it holds, that may put his re-election prospects back within reach."

Election 2012: Gingrich Leads In CA, PA, and VA

Posted Dec 20, 2011 at 3:11 AM by Maurice Berger

In case you're wonderful about other GOP primary states, here a breakdown of the standing of the GOP field in several of the larger states. In CA, PA, and VA, at least, Gingrich appears to be in the lead. Given the erosion of Gingrich's support in most recent polling, however, PollTrack suggests that these results should be view with a good degree of skepticism. In any case, Newt Gingrich leads by considerable margins in the key states:

CALIFORNIA (Public Policy Institute): Gingrich 33%, Romney 25%, Paul 9%, Bachmann 7%, Perry 4%, Santorum 4% and Huntsman 2%.

PENNSYLVANIA (Susquehanna Polling and Research):  Gingrich 8%, Bachmann 6%, and Perry 2%.

VIRGINIA (Public Policy Polling survey): Gingrich 41%, Romney 15%, Perry 8%, Bachmann 8%, Santorum 6%, Paul 6% and Huntsman 3%.


PollTrack: Storm Warning Ahead For Gingrich

Posted Dec 19, 2011 at 1:45 AM by Maurice Berger

While a pronounced surge for Newt Gingrich in the contest for the 2012 GOP nomination has been evident in recent weeks, the latest polling, plus the internals of some upcoming surveys, suggests that Gingrich may have some tough sailing ahead. Gallup daily tracking, for example, indicates a sharp decline in Gingrich's support. Gingrich now leads Mitt Romney by only +4%--28% to 24%, followed by Ron Paul at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Rick Perry at 6%, Rick Santorum at 4% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. PollTrack has learned that several national surveys--as well as statewide polls--will report similar, relatively rapid, declines in Gingrich's standing in the GOP field. Stay tuned.

Is the Momentum Shifting Back To Romney

Posted Dec 16, 2011 at 2:02 AM by Maurice Berger

As his opponents continue to barrage Newt Gingrich with negative soundbites, can the ex-congressman maintain his momentum. A poll released last week in Iowa, by Rasmussen suggests that the tide may be turning once again the the quest for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. The poll now reports that Mitt Romney has recaptured back the lead with 23%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 20%, Ron Paul at 18%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 9%, Rick Santorum at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 5%. Given the strong, religious-conservative bent of the Iowa Republican caucus-goers, this trend, if sustained, could be really big news.

Contradictory Polls In Michigan GOP Primary

Posted Dec 16, 2011 at 2:01 AM by Maurice Berger

Two polls just out. Two different readings of the relatively early (February 28) GOP presidential primary race in Michigan. A survey from MIRS reports that Romney leads with a double-digit lead in the state where he was raised, 48% to 33%. (Michele Bachmann comes in at 11% and Rick Perry at 7%). Another poll from Strategic National shows Newt Gingrich edging Mitt Romney in Michigan, where Romney spent his childhood, 31% to 29%. Stay tuned.

Election 2012: Internal GOP Polls Show Gingrich Slipping in Iowa

Posted Dec 15, 2011 at 1:47 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Politico, "A week-long blitz of negative ads from Ron Paul and "Restore Our Future," the pro-Mitt Romney super PAC, have taken a toll on Newt Gingrich's standing in Iowa, internal numbers from the Rick Perry and Romney camps show, according to multiple sources. Sources didn't provide specific numbers on how far he's slipped, but it's perceptible in both camps' numbers, the sources said. Perry has been inching up, the sources said - in part thanks to his faith-based push but largely because of his controversial anti-gay rights ad, and the big question is whether he draws at all from Romney and pushes him down out of the top three finishers in the state. The person who is holding strong, according to the internal numbers, is Paul, who has a true shot of winning the caucuses, according to several Iowa Republican insiders surveying ground games and energy."

Given the volatility of the GOP race thus far, PollTrack believes that these internal numbers could well spell a decline of support for Gingrich as earlier idealization is giving way to the political reality of frontrunner now being bombarded with negative advertisements and soundbites, many generated by his opponents. Stay tuned.

Election 2012: Gingrich Up In SC and Florida

Posted Dec 14, 2011 at 1:14 AM by Maurice Berger

Two new polls by NBC News-Marist report that Newt Gingrich has considerable leads over Mitt Romney in South Carolina and Florida.
In South Carolina, Gingrich leads Romney by 42% to 23% (no other GOP candidate rises above single digits). In Florida, Gingrich leads Romney by 44% to 29%.

Election 2012: Gingrich Holds Big National Lead

Posted Dec 13, 2011 at 10:42 AM by Maurice Berger

Another survey, this one from Fox News reports that Newt Gingrich holds a considerable lead in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. Gingrich leads with 36%, followed by Mitt Romney at 23%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick Perry at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Rick Santorum at 4%, and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

Presidential Electoral Maps: Today/Election Day

Posted Dec 12, 2011 at 1:09 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack has made changes to both the "Today" and "Election Day" presidential maps that reflect somewhat improving numbers for President Obama in several key battleground states--numbers helped by the muddled and uncertain GOP field. In "Today's Map," the president has pulled even with the GOP in terms of relative electoral strength across the 50 states and DC. Similarly, "Election Day's Map" shows the president in a near tie with a generic GOP candidate, with more than 80-electoral votes projected to be too-close-too-call on Election Day 2012.

Americans' Perception Of The GOP Field Grows Negative

Posted Dec 09, 2011 at 1:08 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey released by Pew Research reports that more Americans say their impression of the GOP field is worsening than improving: 31% of respondents say that their impression of the GOP field is getting worse as they learn more about the candidates, while 14% says it's getting better. Another 50% say their impression remains the same.

Election 2012: Gingrich Holds Significant Lead In Iowa

Posted Dec 08, 2011 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll in Iowa, this one by New York Times-CBS News reports that Newt Gingrich has pull into a significant lead over GOP rivals with 31%, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, Ron Paul at 16%, Rick Perry at 11% and the rest of the field in single digits.

Election 2012: Tea Party Support Drops Significantly

Posted Dec 07, 2011 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Pew Research reports that the Tea Party, since the 2010 midterm elections, "has not only lost support nationwide, but also in the congressional districts represented by members of the House Tea Party Caucus." The survey concludes: "More Americans say they disagree (27%) than agree (20%) with the Tea Party movement. A year ago, in the wake of the sweeping GOP gains in the midterm elections, the balance of opinion was just the opposite: 27% agreed and 22% disagreed with the Tea Party." Although this decline may have an effect on the general election next fall, PollTrack believes that Tea Party influence will still effect the GOP primaries, where a smaller number of voters overall intensify the power of the waning, but still active party.

Election 2012: Gingrich Maintains Double Digit Lead Nationally

Posted Dec 06, 2011 at 1:53 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Poll Position reports that Newt Gingrich's national lead has widened. He tops the GOP presidential field with 37%, followed by Mitt Romney at 23%, Ron Paul at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Rick Perry at 3%, Jon Huntsman at 2% and Rick Santorum at 2%. As PollTrack predicted last week, Gingrich appears to be benefiting from the defection of conservative candidates, such as Herman Cain. Stay tuned.

Election 2012: Gingrich Takes the Lead In Iowa

Posted Dec 05, 2011 at 1:17 AM by Maurice Berger

The impressive Des Moines Register Iowa Poll--they predicted Barack Obama's surge down to the percentage point in the Democratic caucus back in 2008--has some good news for Newt Gingrich: according to the survey, he has "carved out a clear lead" in the GOP presidential race with 25%, followed by Ron Paul at 18% and Mitt Romney at 16%. Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain come in at 8%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. Significantly, as pollster J. Ann Seltzer notes, "the results show Gingrich's ascendancy has the potential to grow . . . More respondents choose Gingrich as their second choice than any other candidate. Together, 43% of likely caucusgoers pick him as first or second."

Similarly, a survey by NBC News/Marist in Iowa finds reports that Gingrich is now in the lead at with 26%, followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Ron Paul at 17%, Herman Cain at 9%, Rick Perry at 9%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Rick Santorum at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

Gallup: Obama's National Appoval Lowest In Modern History At This Point in Term

Posted Dec 02, 2011 at 12:52 AM by Maurice Berger

According to an analysis by Gallup, President Obama's overall decline in Gallup's daily presidential job approval index has now surpassed that of Jimmy Carter. The president's aggregate approval numbers for November 2011--a year out from the culmination of his reelection effort--represent the worst job approval rating of any president at this stage of his term in modern political history. Significantly, however, a series of recent analyses of approval ratings relative to reelection suggest that presidential numbers at this point are not always predictive of outcome. Such variables as an approving economy, the electability of the challenger, and the increasingly swift turn over of news cycles in a world a new media can all contribute to the eventual outcome of a presidential cycle. So PollTrack will be watching the next few months very closely.

Election 2012: Polling In Florida Confirms Gingrich Ascendance

Posted Dec 01, 2011 at 1:27 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll in Florida (with results similar to two others released over the past few days) confirms Gingrich's ascendance in the national contest for the GOP presidential nomination. The survey by Public Policy Polling survey in Florida shows Newt Gingrich leading the Republican presidential field with 47%, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, Herman Cain at 15%, Ron Paul at 5%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, Rick Perry at 2%, and Rick Santorum at 1%. Significantly, in light of PollTrack's Wednesday analysis of the status of the GOP campaign, the poll reports that the "biggest reason for Newt Gingrich's rise is that he's picked up the voters of Herman Cain and Rick Perry as their campaigns have fallen apart." PPP continues: "But these numbers make it pretty clear he's doing more than that--some of Mitt Romney's '25%' is starting to fall off and move toward Newt as well."