Posted Jan 31, 2012 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger
A new USAToday/Gallup survey of the dozen states likely to determine the outcome of
November's election--Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin--concludes that Mitt Romney is the "GOP contender with the best chance of denying
Obama a second term." The poll reports that "in a head-to-head race, Romney leads Obama by a statistically insignificant percentage point, 48%-47% . . . But
Obama leads Gingrich, 54%-40%. The president's standing against him has
risen nine points since early December; Gingrich has fallen by eight. Gingrich fares less well than Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who trails Obama by seven points, 50%-43%, and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, who also trails by seven points, 51%-44%."
Posted Jan 30, 2012 at 1:48 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's analysis of half-dozen polls released over the past few days in the GOP presidential primary in Florida suggest a likely win for Mitt Romney. Romney's aggregate lead over his closes competitor, Newt Gingrich, as of Sunday evening is +11.3%--a considerable advantage, with Romney leading in all six polls (with margins ranging from +8% to +16%.
Posted Jan 27, 2012 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger
According to an analysis by Gallup, President Obama's third-year approval average--at 44%--is the second lowest for a president in the past 50-years. Looking just at other elected presidents' third-year averages,
only Jimmy Carter's 37%
average in 1979-1980 is lower than Obama's. Ronald Reagan's third-year average of 45% was
similar to Obama's. Crucial to reading this analysis, PollTrack believes, is the perception of the electorate moving into the fourth year: if the economic and political climate appear to be improving, as they were with Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, the voters often reelect a president with relatively low approval ratings in the third year. So PollTrack will keep a close eye on the economic atomosphere as we move into election 2012. Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Jan 26, 2012 at 2:24 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey by CNN-Time in Florida reports a slight lead for Mitt Romney, who now comes in at 36%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 34%, Rick Santorum at 11% and Ron Paul at 9%. According to the poll, "Romney leads Gingrich among female and white voters,
voters over 50, and those with a college degree... Gingrich holds leads
among men, Tea Party voters, self-identified conservatives -- among whom
he boasts a 10-point advantage -- and born-again Christians. His fans
also appear to be more committed than Romney's."
Posted Jan 25, 2012 at 12:36 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released survey by Public Policy Polling survey in Florida reports that Newt Gingrich now leads Mitt Romney by five points in
the GOP presidential race, 38% to 33%, followed by Rick Santorum at 13%
and Ron Paul at 10%. Significantly, Gingrich has gained 12 points since a PPP poll conducted
in Florida a week ago. Romney has dropped 8 points.
Posted Jan 24, 2012 at 1:04 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll out from Rasmussen in Florida shows Newt Gingrich now ahead in the GOP
presidential race with 41%, followed by Mitt Romney at 32%, Rick
Santorum at 11% and Ron Paul at 8%.
Posted Jan 23, 2012 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger
In another sign that the Romney campaign is ion trouble, a new survey by Insider Advantage reports that Newt Gingrich is ahead in the Florida GOP presidential primary. After weeks of leading significantly in the polls in the state, Romney now trails Gingrichby eight points in Florida, according to the poll conducted the day after the former House speaker won the South Carolina primary According Insider Advantage poll, Gingrich is at 34%, Romney 26%, Ron Paul 13% and
former Rick Santorum is last at 11%.
Posted Jan 20, 2012 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger
After a month with a clear advantage in South Carolina, four new polls suggest that Mitt Romney may now be the underdog in the state's upcoming GOP presidential primary.
A survey by American Research Group reports that Newt Gingrich now leads, with 33% closely followed by Mitt Romney 32%, Ron Paul 19%, Rick Santorum 9%, Rick Perry 4%.
InsiderAdvantage shows Gingrich leading with 32%, followed by Romney at 29%, Paul at 15%, Santorum at 11%, and Rick Perry far behind at 3%.
We Ask America reports that Gingrich leads the GOP field with 32%,
followed by Mitt Romney at 28%, Ron Paul at 13%, Rick Santorum at 9%,
Rick Perry at 3% and Jon Huntsman at 3%.
And a survey by Public Policy Polling survey show Gingrich with 35%, Romney with 29%, and Paul and Santorum each tied for third at 15%.
PollTrack notes that Perry's departure from the race could also help Gingrich, removing as it does one less conservative alternative to Romney.
Posted Jan 19, 2012 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger
Good news for President Obama: according to a new survey by Public Policy Polling, the President leads Mitt Romney in a general election match, at 49% to 44% nationally. This is Obama's best showing in months, an increase in support due, in part, to the steep decline of Romney's favorable rating, with only 35% rating him favorably while
53% have a negative opinion of him.
Posted Jan 18, 2012 at 2:00 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by Sunshine State News in Florida reports that Mitt Romney leads by a very wide margin in the upcoming primary for the GOP presidential nomination. According to the poll, Romney leads with 46%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 20%, Rick Santorum at 12% and Ron Paul at 9%. Similarly,. A new Public Policy Polling survey in the state shows Romney in the lead at 41%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 26%, Rick Santorum at 11%,
Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 1% rounding out
Posted Jan 17, 2012 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger
Three new polls show Mitt Romney with a significant lead in next Saturday's South Carolina GOP presidential primary:
InsiderAdvantage: Romney is at 32%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 21%, Ron Paul at
14%, Rick Santorum at 13%, Jon Huntsman at 6% and Rick Perry at 5%.
Reuters/Ipsos Romney leads with 37%, followed by Ron Paul
at Rick Santorum at 16% and Newt Gingrich dropping back to 16%.
Frontier Strategy: Romney is at with 32%, followed by Gingrich at 23%, Santorum at 14%, Paul at 10%, Perry at 6% and Huntsman at 4%.
Posted Jan 16, 2012 at 2:03 AM by Maurice Berger
Two new polls show Mitt Romney pull way from the pack in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. A survey from Fox News reports that Romney leads with 40%, followed by Rick Santorum at 15%, Newt
Gingrich at 14%, Ron Paul at 13%, Rick Perry at 6% and Jon Huntsman at
5%. Gallup daily tracking similarly reports that Romney is at 37%, Santorum at 14%, Gingrich at 13%, Paul at 12%, Perry at 5% and Hunstman at 3%.
Posted Jan 13, 2012 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger
Even if the South Carolina proves to be close--or even if current frontrunner Mitt Romney loses--a new Rasmussen survey in Florida suggests that Florida may contribute to his overall standing as GOP nomination leader. According to the poll, Romney leads with 41%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 19%, Rick Santorum at 15%, Ron Paul at 9% and Jon Hunstman at 5%.
Posted Jan 12, 2012 at 2:03 AM by Maurice Berger
As of Tuesday--and therefore before the results of the New Hampshire primary--Mitt Romney continues to hold a very modest lead in South Carolina, according to two polls: A survey by We Ask America reports that Mitt Romney leads the GOP presidential field
with 26%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 21%, Rick Santorum at 13%, Ron
Paul at 8%, Rick Perry at 5% and John Hunstman at 4%. Another 22% are
still undecided. A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Romney at 27%, Gingrich at 23%, Santorum at 18%, Ron Paul at 8%, Rick Perry at 7% and Jon
Huntsman at 4%.
Posted Jan 11, 2012 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey by Quinnipiac in Florida reports that Mitt Romney is now leading the GOP presidential race with
36%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 24%, Rick Santorum at 16%, Ron Paul at
10%, Rick Perry at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. With more than half of all voters saying they could still change their mind, the race may still be fluid.
Posted Jan 10, 2012 at 1:46 AM by Maurice Berger
Polling in recent days has shown surprising strength for Mitt Romney in the relative conservative state of South Carolina. A new Public Policy Polling survey in the state reports that Mitt Romney holds a modest lead, with 30%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 23%, Rick Santorum
at 19%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy
Roemer at 1%.
Posted Jan 09, 2012 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger
With a slew of new polls showing Romney ahead in New Hampshire, PollTrack wonders by how much and who will be his closest challenger. A new poll from Public Policy Polling reports that Mitt Romney has a substantial lead in the Republican presidential
race with 35%, followed by Ron Paul at 18%, Jon Huntsman at 16%, Newt
Gingrich at 12%, Rick Santorum at 11%, Buddy Roemer at 3% and Rick Perry
at 1%. A new survey by WMUR/UNH reports an even great for Romney, with 41%, followed by Paul at 17%, Huntsman at
11%, Santorum at 11%, Gingrich at 8%, Rick Perry at 1% and Buddy Roemer
at 1%. But a Suffolk University tracking poll, released over the weekend, shows Mitt Romney's support dipping for the fourth day in a row. By Sunday, for example, Romney dropped another 4 points overnight to 35%, followed by Ron Paul
at 20%, Jon Hunstman at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%
and Rick Perry at 1%. Another 15% remain undecided.
With some polls showing Huntsman gaining momentum (but Santorum loosing steam), the race could end with a closer result than a simple Romney walk. New Hampshire is known for its surprises: Hillary Clinton won the primary in 2008, although Barack Obama came into election day with a lead in virtually every poll. While PollTrack still believes Romney--thus moving him considerably closer to the nomination--will win the New Hampshire Primary, the depth and intensity of his win remains uncertain.
Posted Jan 06, 2012 at 2:04 AM by Maurice Berger
Another poll in New Hampshire, this one by Suffolk University, reports that Mitt
Romney holds a huge lead, now at 41%, in the GOP presidential primary, followed by Ron Paul at 18%, Rick
Santorum at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Jon Huntsman at 7% and Rick Perry
Posted Jan 05, 2012 at 2:01 AM by Maurice Berger
Has Rick Santorum's strong second place showing in Iowa helped him in the upcoming New Hampshire primary? And new poll by CNN suggests the answer may be only marginally, reporting that the Iowa caucus results appear to have changed few minds in New
Hampshire, at least among likely GOP primary voters who watched the
caucus results on Tuesday evening. The poll shows Mitt Romney with a staggering 47% lead, with Ron Paul at 17% and Jon Huntsman at
13%. As for Rick
Santorum: the poll reports a modest, but by no means consequential, bump for him among Iowa caucus-watchers: he's now at 10%, from 5% a month earlier.
Posted Jan 04, 2012 at 2:43 AM by Maurice Berger
A number of polls in recent days report a commanding lead for Mitt Romney in the New Hampshire. A new poll by Suffolk tracking, for example, shows Romney leading with 43%, followed by Ron Paul at 17%, Jon Huntsman at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 8%. This poll is consistent with several others released over the past week. Given the extreme closeness of Romney's victory in Iowa yesterday, PollTrack will be watching New Hampshire very closely over the next six days for signs of weakening in Romney's position.
Posted Jan 02, 2012 at 4:29 PM by Maurice Berger
A survey in Iowa from Public Policy Polling survey, conducted Saturday and Sunday, reports a virtual three-way tie
in advance of the Iowa caucuses. In the poll, Ron Paul leads with 20
percent, followed by Mitt Romney at 19 percent
and Rick Santorum at 18 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll in Iowa shows Romney with an insignificant lead; he's at 23%, followed by
Ron Paul at 22%, Rick Santorum at 18%, Newt Gingrich at 16%, Rick Perry
at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. And a survey by American Research Group shows a slightly larger lead for Romney, with 22%, followed by Paul at 17%, Santorum at 16% and Gingrich at 15%.
Posted Jan 02, 2012 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey from the highly respect--and often very accurate--Des Moines Register reports that Mitt Romney now leads with 24%, followed by Ron Paul at 22%, Rick
Santorum at 15%, Newt Gingrich at 12%, Rick Perry at 11%, Michele
Bachmann at 7%. The bog news may well be Santorum's surprisingly strong showing: "If the
final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to
second place, with 21%, pushing Paul to third, at 18%. Romney remains
the same, at 24%."